Follow the money.
It’s good advice in almost any realm of journalism, but it’s particularly valid if you happen to cover a sports league with a complicated salary cap, punitive luxury tax and restrictive cap aprons. As I’ve said here before, there’s a reason that, on NBA trade calls, the league office says teams are trading “the contract of Player X” rather than “Player X.”
Thus, as much as we may love the so-called “challenge” trade of one player for another — fantasy leagues thrive on them! — they are vanishingly rare in the NBA. Most of the time, the real action in the trade market is in lining up contracts to match teams’ salary-cap realities. If it also happens to help on the basketball court, that’s nice. But for many of these deals, it’s not essential.
With that intro, happy trade season, everyone! Dec. 15 marks the unofficial starter’s gun on in-season maneuvers, as a great many players who signed contracts in the offseason become trade-eligible on that date. (Some others will not be eligible until Jan. 15.) That gives us roughly 10 weeks of shopping until the trade deadline of Feb. 5, and in the true spirit of Christmas shoppers everywhere, most teams will drag their feet until the final hours before completing their deals.
Nonetheless, the phone calls will take on a new urgency in the coming days, as most teams had some time to exhale and take stock during the league’s unofficial “bye week,” when the schedule slows down for 10 days to allow the NBA Cup to complete. Scouts and execs will get some face time during this weekend’s G League Winter Showcase, and phones around the league will ring (or vibrate) with increased intensity once the calendar flips to 2026.
So, today is all about setting the stage: Who are the players most likely to be involved in trades, and why? As you’ll see, some of these names are obvious and have been talked about for a while, but others only come to light once you remember that we’re in a salary-cap league. Also, one note before we begin: While there are literally infinite ways to potentially put deals together, and a furtive deal can always slobberknock us from out of nowhere (hi, Luka!), I’ve focused on what are the most likely based on cap situations and my own front-office experience.
Here is my All-Deadline Team for 2025-26.
Giannis Antetokounmpo, PF, Bucks
Captain Obvious off the top rope! Let’s get this started with the most hammer-to-the-head obvious name on the list. If Antetokounmpo says he wants to be gone, he’s gone. It’s that simple. He has one season under team control after this one and then could become an unrestricted free agent, so it would strongly be in the Bucks’ interest to maximize their return now if he wants out. Right now, it feels like a Damian Lillard-esque situation where neither side wants to be the one to pull the rip cord. (Reality check: If you’re playing a video game in GM mode, you trade Antetokounmpo yesterday and rebuild with a bounty of picks and players. As ever, real life is more complicated.)
The key number here is $54.1 million. That’s what Antetokounmpo makes, and it’s a big number to fit into a cap sheet, especially for those teams already bound by one of the tax aprons. Additionally, the team that acquires him has to send out at least $43.3 million to legally obtain his contract, and possibly more if it’s past one of the cap aprons.
The flip side of this is, what if Antetokounmpo doesn’t try to force his way out by February, and the Bucks instead pivot to some kind of desperation make-Antetokounmpo-happy trade. Our Eric Nehm already outlined the few options facing the Bucks. The one thing going for them is that they’re $14 million from the tax line and can take back more salary than they send out. (Presumably the Bucks wouldn’t be crazy enough to trade their 2031 first-round pick — the only one they can move right now — but we can’t rule it out either.)
As a result, some kind of “bad salary for even worse salary” trade that also returns a helpful basketball player is probably what they would target, but the only two players who make enough money to make that work are Kyle Kuzma and Bobby Portis. Additionally, the incentives in Kuzma’s deal count against the tax aprons regardless of whether he achieves them, which could make him much less desirable to teams in that realm of the cap.
Finally, if you’re the Bucks and are resigned to trading Antetokounmpo, aren’t you trading Myles Turner too? How do we feel about a deal that sends Bennedict Mathurin, Isaiah Jackson, Johnny Furphy and two seconds to the Bucks and returns Turner to Indiana where he belongs? This is definitely the fake trade I’m rooting for the most.
OK, let’s move on. Of all the players who could potentially be in a trade package for Antetokounmpo, one of the most obvious has to be…
Jonathan Kuminga, SF/PF, Warriors
Is it too early to say the Warriors missed their moment? At almost every stage of the last five years, they’ve declined to move on from Kuminga in the hopes that he would either turn out to help them win or turn out to have more trade value later.
Instead, the opposite has happened. He makes $22.5 million and is collecting DNPs for a team that’s 13-14 through Monday. While some factors here make the story more complicated than my last sentence, the overall situation hasn’t exactly left the league’s other 29 teams thirsting to acquire him. Well, except the Kings, which should be another red flag.
Kuminga is shooting 48.4 percent on 2s, 32.0 percent from 3 and has a career low 11.2 PER. It’s year five, and the “How does he impact winning?” question still dogs him. Can he be more than an empty-calorie scorer? That said, on a different team, his shot creation alone could be a floor-raiser for second units. He’s still only 23, and his contract ($22.5 million this year, a team option for $24.3 million next year) should make it plausible to fit him into most salary structures … or to use as the centerpiece of an Antetokounmpo trade.
As the Warriors teeter while the top six teams in the Western Conference run away from them, one wonders if their late-stage Steph Curry Era hinges on bringing in yet another aging star, and if the relatively young Antetokounmpo (just 31) might be the elixir for a club whose three linchpins are 37, 36 and 35.
That takes us to the elephant in the room: Sure, Golden State could put three first-rounders and Kuminga into a Giannis trade. It could add one of Buddy Hield or Moses Moody, both of whom have been pushed to the fringes of the rotation. But the only way the Warriors are getting to a salary match, with their status above the first apron, is by aggregating Draymond Green with those other salaries. He makes $25.9 million and has a player option for $27.7 million next year.
So, the big question for the bigwigs by the Bay: If your team is 13-14 and you know Curry and Jimmy Butler might have an 18-month shelf life as difference-making players, isn’t it worth it to go chips-in on Antetokounmpo? Maybe they still would get outbid by a team like the Houston Rockets, but the Warriors have to at least discuss this.
LaMelo Ball, PG, Hornets
Don’t get your hopes up. Ball almost certainly makes too much money ($131 million for the three years after this one, with no options) for another team to commit draft capital to acquire him, at least until he proves himself either more reliable or more obviously committed to helping his team win.
My ideal Ball trade, which will never, ever happen in real life, is what I call the “Southeast Shuffle”: One where he, Ja Morant and Trae Young all exchange teams and try to restore their trade value in new settings.
My second-favorite Ball trade, though, actually might be a bit more realistic: Ball and Ryan Kalkbrenner to Sacramento for Domantas Sabonis and Devin Carter. To be clear to anyone out there who posts tiny clips of my columns for a living: I have no evidence whatsoever that anyone is talking about this. But it would be a hell of a splash trade at the deadline, and the salaries work.
All of the Kings’ men, including DeMar DeRozan, should be available. Sergio Estrada / Imagn Images
DeMar DeRozan, SF/PF, Kings
I mentioned Sabonis above, but he’s a hard guy to fit in most trade scenarios. With the team free-fallin’ worse than a Tom Petty cover band, all the Kings’ men are available. However, in terms of contract and suitability for a playoff team, DeRozan seems like the name to watch. He makes a digestible $24.8 million and has only $10 million guaranteed next year if things don’t work out. Thus, accommodating his salary doesn’t wreck an acquiring team’s books the way it does for Sabonis or Zach LaVine.
DeRozan would likely have to adapt to a sixth man role on a good team, but that floor-raising, bucket-getter role has always been the best fit for his skill set. Moving off DeRozan has value for the Kings in the offseason, too; with Sacramento already at next year’s tax line, the team will have all but boxed itself out of room to re-sign Keon Ellis unless it trades a salary (may I interest you in a lightly used Dennis Schröder?) or waive DeRozan after the season.
Ousmane Dieng, PF, Thunder; Jeremy Sochan, PF, Spurs
It’s the last chance for these teams to get value on 2022 lottery picks who haven’t totally busted, per se, but also haven’t been able to stay in the rotation mix as the rosters around them upgraded rapidly. The fact that San Antonio is playing 34-year-old Kelly Olynyk ahead of Sochan says all you need to know about the latter’s place in the Spurs’ hierarchy, while Dieng has five DNPs in the last eight games on a loaded Thunder squad.
Oklahoma City can play its hand two ways with Dieng, who makes $6.7 million and will be a restricted free agent after the season. With the Thunder about $1.5 million from the tax line, they could trade him for a second-round pick and a waiveable contract and have the roster space and wiggle room to either sign a vet from the buyout market or promote one of their two-ways. Alternatively, they could put in some of their own considerable draft capital to turn Dieng into a rotation-caliber vet. While they could trade themselves into the tax, they might cap themselves at $8 million in returning money and avoid starting the clock on what are likely hefty repeater penalties in future seasons with this roster.
As for the Spurs, they have more wiggle room below the tax and could take back a $12 million player for Sochan, especially a forward who can shoot. As with Oklahoma City, the Spurs also have a surfeit of future second-round picks to grease a deal. Sochan has also accomplished a bit more to date than Dieng and might be an interesting flier for a rebuilding team.
Anthony Davis, C, and Daniel Gafford, C, Mavericks
I cautioned you to follow the money above, and even though Mavs governor Patrick Dumont has more of it than most people, he still likely isn’t excited about paying nearly $50 million in tax and penalties for a team that seems lottery-bound.
Even if he didn’t mind, there’s always next year to consider, when the Mavs are in nearly the exact same situation and have basically zero ability to add to the roster because of the second apron.
Trading Davis’ $54 million salary could solve both problems, although, as with Antetokounmpo above, getting to a salary match is tricky for trading partners and might be more easily accomplished this summer. Moving off Davis would also gently push the Mavs into a soft tank in a season where they control their draft pick, something they don’t do any of the next four years.
It’s also hard to find a perfect fit for Davis given his money, position and age; most of the teams that could theoretically use him aren’t good enough to justify going even mildly “all-in” for him.
However, an easier swap could involve Gafford, a starting-caliber center signed to a reasonable deal through 2029 but one whose fit is clunky next to Davis and Dereck Lively II. (Lively, though out for the season following foot surgery, would appear to be the Mavs’ center of the future.)
CJ McCollum, PG, Wizards
McCollum and Khris Middleton are the two Washington veterans teams will have their eye on in the buyout market, but of the two, only McCollum has played well enough to have real value on the trade market. His $30.7 million expiring salary is a major stumbling block, but one can envision deals where teams looking to shed 2026-27 money pay the Wizards in draft capital to take on salary beyond this season, especially since Washington has more cap room (roughly $80 million) than it could possibly use next summer.
Deals with expiring money and draft picks are also possible, though seemingly less likely. One thought bubble, if the LA Clippers can get off the mat in the next eight weeks: Would they trade two seconds along with the expiring money of John Collins, Kobe Brown and Chris Paul, to get McCollum?
Speaking of which:
Chris Paul and half of his former teammates, Clippers
The Clippers’ situation is unfathomable — they’re 6-20 even though their three best players all have PERs in the 20s and have missed just 11 combined games between them. Yes, the rest of the rotation has been that bad. From players No. 4 through No. 15, the Clippers roster has been absolutely horrendous, in fact: The only BPM above minus-1.5 belongs to the injured Derrick Jones Jr.
Steve Ballmer isn’t crying poverty, but the repeater tax is threatening enough that the Clippers might try to shed $6.8 million in salary and get out of the tax of their own volition. That’s especially true in a “less now, more later” trade for future salary that helps load up their 2026-27 roster. Next year’s Clippers are nowhere near the tax line and will have money to spend regardless of whether James Harden opts out.
So, back to the exiled Paul — who still has a $2.3 million salary on the books — and the other vets in LA. Nic Batum, Bogdan Bogdanović and Brook Lopez all have team options for next year and are de facto expiring contracts, while Paul, John Collins and Kobe Brown have expiring deals. Combined, they make more than $60 million, meaning the Clippers have enough expiring money to support virtually any trade. As long as they take back less than about $40 million in 2026-27 money, they can keep Harden at roughly the same money he’s making, use their nontaxpayer midlevel exception and still remain below the first apron.
Bennedict Mathurin, SG, Pacers
The Pacers didn’t extend Mathurin before the season, and he hasn’t been good enough to make them regret that decision. However, with Indiana desperate for help at the center position — yes, it’s a “gap year,” but the Pacers have to get a real center by the start of next season — and Mathurin having the Pacers’ only significant expiring money, he obviously becomes the linchpin of any trade proposal that brings in frontcourt help.
I already tipped off my favorite fake trade above in the section on the Bucks, but Gafford in Dallas is also a direct salary match and acquiring him wouldn’t put the Pacers into the tax. Given the Mavs’ shortcomings on the perimeter, that small-for-big swap would seemingly work in both directions.
Gabe Vincent, PG, and Maxi Kleber, PF, Lakers
The Lakers can use Bird rights to keep LeBron James, Austin Reaves and Rui Hachimura this summer and could be players in free agency based on Reaves’ artificially low cap hold — especially if James either leaves after the season or returns for less money. The Lakers, much like Milwaukee above, can also put a lot more in draft capital into a trade after the season but can only offer one first-round pick right now.
That said, one roster approach to max out both their present and future would be to deal for 2026-27 salary at the deadline, when they can still add money to their book and apron rules won’t block them from sign-and-trades or other maneuvers.
Los Angeles must tread carefully because it’s so close to the first apron, where the Lakers are hard-capped, but adding $23 million in salary is possible if Vincent and Kleber are the outgoing salaries. They can net even bigger fish by including Jarred Vanderbilt’s $11.5 million, but his contract is likely problematic because it runs through 2027-28.
I’d probably file this one under “opportunism.” The Lakers don’t need to chase bad deals, but their expiring money and the one first could let them pounce if an optimal situation presents itself.
Jose Alvarado, PG, Pelicans
The Pels are a mess, but I’ve yet to hear a compelling reason why New Orleans should trade Herb Jones or Trey Murphy, other than that other teams are really hoping they do it.
Alvarado, on the other hand, has a player option this summer (on a salary of just $4.5 million, meaning he’ll likely trigger it) and is crowded out in a Pelicans backcourt that features Jeramiah Fears and Jordan Poole and still awaits the return of Dejounte Murray. The data says he’s a reliable backup point guard and his traits would likely play better on a winning team, plus they would inherit full Bird rights if they wanted him to stick around.
Minnesota’s Mike Conley is on an expiring contract. Jesse Johnson / Imagn Images
Mike Conley, PG, Timberwolves
The Wolves seem to be looking at various ways to upgrade a thin wing rotation. While it still seems more likely they stand pat, they only have a couple of ways to go if they want to make a move of any significance. The Wolves could take bigger, more ambitious swings that would involve the contracts of either Donte DiVincenzo, Naz Reid or both. Failing that, however, they may settle for smaller moves that would hinge on Conley’s expiring $10.7 million salary being part of the swap — especially with Bones Hyland’s recent play solidifying the backcourt depth situation.
Minnesota has no draft picks to trade as a sweetener but could use rookie center Joan Beringer as bait and return a player who makes $15 million or less.
Sam Hauser, PF, and Anfernee Simons, PG, Celtics
The Celtics have been better than expected without Jayson Tatum, but that still doesn’t change their financial reality — getting below the tax line this season gets them out from a bruising repeater tax and could help reset the clock entirely in future years depending on what other moves they make down the road.
Boston basically has two mechanisms to do this. The first is to trade Hauser and a couple of lightly used players on small contracts (say, Chris Boucher and Baylor Scheierman) to another team without taking back any salary; in this case, the bait would be Hauser and a contract that pays him an average of $11.7 million per year for the three seasons after this one. Importantly, Hauser’s salary fits into the non-taxpayer midlevel exception, meaning the league’s one team with cap space (Brooklyn) isn’t the only customer here.
That would be a more tempting package if Hauser were shooting better, but his struggles from deep (just 34.2 percent on 3s, and a 9.3 PER, in 2025-26) have put a lid on his value. On the other hand, if a rival team thinks it’s just random variance and believes more in his career 41.2 percent mark from 3, it might be thrilled at the price they could get.
The other way to pull this off is by trading Simons’ $27.7 million expiring contract for somebody who makes $15 million or less. This one is more likely to require the Nets’ help, and their price may be too rich for the Celtics’ liking, but it’s also possible to trade Simons for multiple smaller contracts and then split off the incoming money in smaller pieces to other destinations.
Speed round
• Philadelphia is $6.7 million into the tax and might not move all the way out but at the very least would save millions off its tax bill by dropping off little-used vet Eric Gordon on another team’s doorstep. The Sixers also need the roster spot to sign both Dom Barlow and Jabari Walker to full-time contracts after the two two-ways have become rotation regulars for Philly.
• New York looks like a contender to win the East, but because the Knicks sit mere pennies from the second-apron line, they can’t play in the buyout market unless they find a home for one of the contracts taking up space at the end of the roster. Most likely that’s second-year pro Pacôme Dadiet’s $2.9 million in salary, but it could also end up being Mohamed Diawara’s $1.2 million. New York still has multiple future seconds lying around to sweeten a deal for the receiving team.
• Orlando is $5.6 million over the tax line, and, even as a contender in the East, it might be tempting for the Magic to pay another team to take Tyus Jones’ $7 million deal and get them back under. Jones has been virtually invisible, with a 9.2 percent usage rate previously thought impossible for a point guard. It seemed telling that Orlando reached for rookie Jase Richardson in the fourth quarter of the NBA Cup semis rather than turning to Jones once Jalen Suggs went out.
• Phoenix is less than $275,000 from the tax line, a mere pittance but an expensive difference when factoring in the payout to teams that end up below that mark. As a result, expect a small move from the Suns in the absence of a larger trade. Little-used center Nick Richards makes $5 million and could be a candidate to move on, or Phoenix could pay another team to take Nigel Hayes-Davis’ $2.1 million deal off its hands. This would also make the Suns players in the buyout market.
• Denver will only go over the tax line if Cam Johnson hits unlikely incentives in his contract, but the Nuggets are so close that it shuts them out of the buyout market unless they can drop off the $2.2 million contracts of either Hunter Tyson or Jalen Pickett.
• Toronto is less than a million from the tax line, but the Raptors like most of their minimum guys. The most expedient exit for Toronto is likely a deal involving Ochai Agbaji, a useful player who makes $6.4 million but is on an expiring contract and unlikely to return next season. Failing that, moving the $1.96 million deals of Jonathan Mogbo or Jamison Battle would get them under.
• Cleveland has far and away the league’s highest payroll but sits eighth in the East at 15-12 and just lost at home to Charlotte. It’s still too early to panic, but the Cavs already have a frozen 2032 draft pick because they spent so much last year and are $22 million over this year’s second apron. If Operation PickThaw becomes a directive from ownership, keep an eye on underperforming contracts like those of Lonzo Ball ($10 million) and Dean Wade ($6.6 million), as well as the larger deals of De’Andre Hunter ($23.3 million) and Max Strus ($15.9 million), each of which has a year to run beyond this one.
