Shai Gilgeous-Alexander — the NBA’s recently crowned regular-season MVP and Western Conference finals MVP — is the favorite to snag honors for NBA Finals MVP, too. And the odds aren’t remotely close.
Oklahoma City’s Gilgeous-Alexander (SGA) is sitting at -625 odds to win the Bill Russell NBA Finals MVP award, with the second favorite, Indiana’s Tyrese Haliburton, squinting in the distance at +700. Haliburton’s teammate — Pascal Siakam, the Eastern Conference finals MVP — is another leap behind in third at +1600.
Fortifying SGA’s odds is the fact that the Oklahoma City Thunder are historically lopsided favorites to win the title this year at -700 odds, with the Indiana Pacers at +500. Only one player has ever won the NBA Finals MVP while being on the losing team: Jerry West, the first awardee ever in 1969.
Here’s a look at the odds and where SGA would slot into NBA Finals history with a win.
2025 NBA Finals MVP odds
At the season start, SGA opened behind Jayson Tatum (+800) and tied at +900 with Nikola Jokić and Jaylen Brown for Finals MVP. Jokić also opened as the favorite (+450) for regular-season MVP, ahead of Luka Dončić (+500) and SGA (+650).
And then SGA started chipping away, with a knockout season leading the league with 32.7 points per game on 51.9 percent shooting. He won the regular-season MVP voting comfortably and the Western Conference finals MVP unanimously. In these playoffs, he has averaged nearly 30 points per game, shooting 47.1 percent from the field.
In league history, just 10 players have won both the regular-season and Finals MVP honors in the same season:
Michael Jordan (Chicago Bulls, 1991, 1992, 1996, 1998)
LeBron James (Miami Heat, 2012, 2013)
Larry Bird (Boston Celtics, 1984, 1986)
Tim Duncan (San Antonio Spurs, 2003)
Shaquille O’Neal (Los Angeles Lakers, 2000)
Hakeem Olajuwon (Houston Rockets, 1994)
Magic Johnson (Los Angeles Lakers, 1987)
Moses Malone (Philadelphia 76ers, 1983)
Kareem Abdul-Jabbar (Milwaukee Bucks, 1971)
Willis Reed (New York Knicks, 1970)
Gilgeous-Alexander has a chance to make history, with a caveat. If he wins, he would be the first player ever to win regular-season MVP, Western Conference finals MVP and NBA Finals MVP. But the Earvin “Magic” Johnson Trophy (West finals MVP) and Larry Bird Trophy (East finals MVP) have only been presented since the 2022 playoffs, so no one in the list above had a chance to win three.
In 2023, Jokić almost claimed the trifecta with the West trophy and NBA Finals trophy, but Joel Embiid won the regular-season MVP award.
Tyrese Haliburton, Pascal Siakam and the rest of the field
With the league’s history of awarding Finals MVP overwhelmingly to a player on the winning team, you’d only want to throw money on a Pacers player if you think they have a shot. In that case, the next player up in the odds is Haliburton, who is averaging nearly 19 points and 10 assists per game on 46.6 percent shooting in the postseason.
So, if you like the Pacers’ chances, Haliburton is a good bet, but Siakam is perhaps even more interesting. With +1600 odds, you’d win $1,600 on a $100 bet for the guy who just nabbed the Eastern Conference finals MVP award after scoring 31 points in the series-clinching Game 6 over the New York Knicks.
The three-time All-Star edged out Haliburton by one vote on the strength of his 24.8 points per game on 52.4 percent shooting from the field and 50 percent from beyond the arc in the conference finals.
After Siakam, the odds drop off significantly again, with OKC’s Jalen Williams (+3000) and Chet Holmgren (+8000) the only ones not in quintuple-digit odds.
(Photo of Shai Gilgeous-Alexander: Matthew Stockman / Getty Images)
