ESPN’s 2025 Summer Forecast has answered some of the league’s biggest questions heading into the NBA’s 80th season and gave its predictions for the league’s biggest questions and awards, as well as the East and West standings. They will now round out the forecast with conference champion and Finals winners.
This season, the Oklahoma City Thunder will look to become the first back-to-back champions since 2018 and break the streak of seven straight different champions, but there will be plenty of challengers.
The Cleveland Cavaliers, after boasting the second-best regular-season record last season, only behind the Thunder, will be battling in an injury-riddled Eastern Conference. However, the New York Knicks, after hiring Mike Brown as their new coach this offseason, also have plenty of postseason experience to push even further.
We asked our experts to rank their top choices for the East and West — and the eventual NBA champion — with a first-place vote receiving five points, a second-place vote receiving three and a third-place vote receiving one.
Here are the results:
Who will win the Eastern Conference finals?
1. Cleveland Cavaliers: 98 points
2. New York Knicks: 72 points
3. Orlando Magic: 21 points
4. Milwaukee Bucks: 7 points
5. Indiana Pacers: 3 points
The Cavs aren’t exactly starting the season with momentum, with starters Darius Garland and Max Strus out for extended periods following offseason foot surgeries. But the conference finals are a long way off, and if they are healthy, their full roster should put them as favorites.
One thing that must be considered in the current era is that the Knicks — unlike the Cavs — are currently under the second apron, which gives them significantly more flexibility to add to or adjust their roster during the season. The Knicks are somewhat settled with this current roster, but are in a position to go after a big name if one becomes available before the February deadline. That could be a factor down the line.
After years of staying on the sidelines when it comes to trades, the Magic’s uber-aggressive four-first-rounder deal to get Desmond Bane was quite a gambit. It only makes sense if this Orlando roster is good enough to compete for a conference finals berth. Maybe it is and maybe it isn’t — we’ll have to see in seven months. — Brian Windhorst
Who will win the Western Conference finals?
1. Oklahoma City Thunder: 106 points
2. Denver Nuggets: 50 points
3. Houston Rockets: 35 points
4. Los Angeles Lakers/Minnesota Timberwolves: 7 points
5. Golden State Warriors: 2 points
It’s somewhat of a surprise that the Rockets aren’t the favorite here to stop Oklahoma City in its bid to become the NBA’s first repeat champions since the Warriors. Considering a strong offseason that brought aboard arguably the league’s best scorer in Kevin Durant to play on a roster already teeming with young talent, the Rockets should put up a challenge to the defending champions, who ran away with the votes this summer.
The Nuggets earned the No. 2 spot in this poll based on how they took the eventual champions to seven games in last season’s Western Conference semifinals, not necessarily on their active offseason. They traded Michael Porter Jr. for Cameron Johnson in addition to acquiring Jonas Valanciunas, Bruce Brown and Tim Hardaway Jr.
But there’s something to be said about continuity.
The Thunder made it a priority this offseason to lock up their uber-talented trio of Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, Jalen Williams and Chet Holmgren. In fact, OKC is set to bring back 14 players off last season’s 15-man roster, making the Thunder high favorites to repeat as Western Conference champions. — Michael C. Wright
Who will win the 2026 NBA Finals?
1. Oklahoma City Thunder: 101 points
2. Denver Nuggets: 36 points
3. Cleveland Cavaliers: 27 points
4. Houston Rockets: 21 points
5. New York Knicks: 11 points
According to our panel, the probability is high that the Thunder will end the league’s streak of seven straight seasons with a different champion. It’s reasonable to believe that Oklahoma City will be an improved team after its title run, based purely on the natural development of its young core’s talent that complements 27-year-old reigning MVP Shai Gilgeous-Alexander.
However, the 2023 champion Nuggets are seen as the biggest challenger to the Thunder’s repeat. After pushing Oklahoma City to seven games in the West semifinals, Denver maneuvered this summer to provide Nikola Jokic the deepest supporting cast of his career. The Thunder proved last season that previous experience of a deep playoff run is not a prerequisite to win a championship. The Cavaliers hope to make a similar breakthrough for the East, having kept their core four together despite a disappointing second-round exit following their 64-win regular season.
The Rockets haven’t been out of the first round since trading James Harden five years ago. But adding future Hall of Famer Kevin Durant to the core of a franchise that has made double-digit jumps in the wins category in each of the past two seasons has put Houston into the contenders conversation. — Tim MacMahon
