SALT LAKE CITY — I ventured out to the Rocky Horror Time Zone on Saturday to watch AJ Dybantsa and BYU take on Utah in the “Holy War” rivalry, and it didn’t disappoint: The heavily favored Cougars had to grind out an 89-84 win before the hostile crowd in the crater known as Utah’s Jon M. Huntsman Center.
Dybantsa, projected as a surefire top-three pick and a possible top overall selection in June’s NBA Draft, showed why he has pro scouts salivating. He finished with 20 points despite the Utes doubling him on his first dribble for most of the game.
Compared to the tape I’d seen earlier in the season, the 18-year-old Dybantsa already seemed to show considerable progress with his handle and shoot-pass decisions. His dribble still can get wild and high at times, especially when he tries to cross over or change direction, but he kept his bounce under better control during his forays on Saturday, even with second defenders chasing him.
And when he did get a free moment to work one-on-one, especially in transition, his glides to the basket were impressive. It’s easy to imagine his one-on-one driving ability translating into big scoring numbers at the next level. What might have been his most impressive drive resulted in a non-shooting foul and thus didn’t make any of the highlight clips, but he pulled off a left-handed hesitation move with a stop-start that left his defender in the dust and basically forced a foul. Some of his best work has come with the left, as you’ll see more of below.
Bigger picture, that’s the thing you’re looking for in college players: the ability to generate easy looks against this level of competition. While tough shot-making is fun, prospects who subsist too heavily on that diet have a much higher failure rate as pros, where those shots go from hard to harder.
Thus, one of the things that worried me about a few of Dybantsa’s early games was how often he relied on getting to tough, contested jumpers. Against Utah, however, he only took three 2-point jump shots; his other five 2-point attempts came in the basket area. That’s been a pattern: In six games since mid-December, he’s shot 43 of 58 (74.1 percent) on 2s. While a couple of those games were against minnows, his last three were in the Big 12 crucible.
Fast forward to the 1:45 mark in the reel below, and watch him leave this defender in the dust with a left-hand drive for an easy bucket:
AJ DYBANTSA vs Utah
20 PTS | 6 REB | 4 AST pic.twitter.com/BOTTRZVgOn
— BYU Men’s Basketball (@BYUMBB) January 11, 2026
The other aspect of “easy” is that defenders are forced to foul him … again and again and again. Dybantsa is big; he attacks the basket constantly, he covers acres of ground with his strides to the cup, and despite the loose handle, he has just enough elusiveness to beat defenders to spots. He’s attempted double-digit free throws in five straight games, and his season rate of .642 free-throw attempts per field goal attempt is phenomenal for a perimeter player.
Where you still wonder about Dybantsa a bit more is as a shooter. He’s drawn some comparisons to Kevin Durant for his ability to elevate over defenders and get any shot he wants at 6-foot-9, but part of that comparison depends on him shooting like Durant, and that’s where the comparison breaks down. Dybantsa is shooting 32.6 percent from 3 on low volume and 74.6 percent from the line.
The shot isn’t broken, but it could use some small tweaks. Watching him shoot before the game, his ball comes out straight and spinning perfectly, whether off the catch or off the dribble, but you’d like to see him get more air under his shot. Particularly off the dribble, it can come out flat. When he shoots off the catch, meanwhile, he has a lot of motion in the early part of his shot. Things seem to smooth out more when he shoots off the dribble; like a lot of lead offensive options, it’s something he’s clearly done more often and is more comfortable with at this point.
To be clear, Dybantsa also has a ways to go as a playmaker; he mostly made simple reads against Utah to get the ball away from pressure. While those were the right plays, he has yet to prove he can torch doubling defenses with anticipatory passes that catch defenders mid-rotation. He still dribbled into trouble a few times on Saturday, with blind spins into traffic a particular proclivity; at this level, he often can wriggle his way out of crowds on sheer talent, but those will be turnovers in the NBA.
Defensively, Dybantsa has seemed a lot more aware and ball-conscious of late, with 18 steals in his past seven games. Another underrated skill is that he seldom fouls. However, his size and hops rarely manifest themselves in terms of secondary rim protection, and the rebounding is nothing special.
The tools are there, however, to do more at that end. Watch that clip above again at the 20-second mark, when he springs off the floor to get a piece of a floater attempt and ignites a transition layup the other way. (Side note: The guy you see finishing plays in a couple of these clips, guard Richie Saunders, is a solid prospect himself, albeit a likely second-rounder.)
Going forward, Dybantsa will have much greater tests than Utah going forward, including a much-anticipated Jan. 31 game against potential top pick Darryn Peterson, during which Lawrence, Kan., may set a record for NBA logo quarter-zips per capita.
I have been hugely impressed by all three players at the top of consensus draft boards (Dybantsa, Peterson and Duke’s Cameron Boozer) and am in no hurry to anoint one of them as superior to the others. However, Dybantsa’s performance on Saturday made it easy to see why my esteemed colleague Sam Vecenie has pushed him into the top spot on his most recent Top 100 board.
