Should Jonathan Kuminga take the qualifying offer with the Warriors? It’s complicated

Just within reach, if he chooses to extend his never-ending arms, is Jonathan Kuminga’s forbidden fruit.

Restricted free agents, as Kuminga has been for nearly a month, rarely ever take the qualifying offer, a bet on themselves to return to their previous teams on one-year deals and hit the market again next summer. But there’s a good reason the strategy is uncommon.

In Kuminga’s case, he could continue negotiating with the Golden State Warriors, the team that chose him seventh in the 2021 NBA Draft, or he could elect for the qualifying offer, worth $8 million for one season, and head back to Golden State for a year (in which he would be able to veto any trade) before hitting the market again as an unrestricted free agent next summer.

But accepting the qualifying offer could be mutually harmful, a risk for Kuminga and a potential disaster for the Warriors — especially if The Athletic’s findings prove accurate.

The Athletic recently polled 16 people who work in rival front offices, asking them what they believe would constitute a “fair” contract for Kuminga, given today’s circumstances. They were granted anonymity in exchange for their candor. Answers ranged from $17 million to $25 million in average annual value. The mean average annual value in the poll was $20.4 million.

One executive suggested a two-year contract. Ten mentioned three-year contracts. Four people said four years. And one fan of Kuminga’s game suggested the largest deal (both in years and average annual value): $125 million over five years.

He compared the 22-year-old’s talent to that of Minnesota Timberwolves defensive stopper Jaden McDaniels, who inked a five-year, $131 million contract when his career was in a similar spot.

“McDaniels is great in his role, but J.K. is more talented and has higher upside if he ever can hit,” the team executive said.

Of course, while Kuminga’s talent is obvious, his production over his first four seasons has oscillated. And most importantly, the context around McDaniels’ and Kuminga’s situations is not the same.

Restricted free agency is currently strangling four players: Kuminga, the Chicago Bulls’ Josh Giddey, the Philadelphia 76ers’ Quentin Grimes and the Brooklyn Nets’ Cam Thomas. This deep into the summer, other teams no longer have cap space. And thus, momentum to sign all four of the aforementioned players has stalled.

The Warriors have searched for potential sign-and-trades for Kuminga but haven’t gained any traction, league sources said. A niche rule in the collective bargaining agreement called base-year compensation, which determines that Kuminga’s outgoing salary would be a different number than his incoming one, would complicate the math in any sign-and-trade. As of now, the most likely scenario appears to be all four of these players re-signing with their previous teams.

If Kuminga isn’t satisfied with what Golden State is presenting, that opens up the possibility of taking the qualifying offer, which would pay him well below his market value for a year but send him into unrestricted free agency in 2026, when far more teams would have cap space and could offer him larger money. For restricted free agents, the player’s previous team has the right of first refusal, able to match any offer sheet to bring him back for the same price, which dampens his market. If Kuminga were unrestricted, he could sign with whomever he pleased.

The executive who mentioned a two-year deal for Kuminga — who averaged 15.3 points in only 24.3 minutes last season but jetted between the doghouse to the top of the offense and back to the doghouse and so on — didn’t suggest a short commitment because he was out on Kuminga. In fact, of the four remaining restricted free agents, Kuminga is the one he would most approve of taking the qualifying offer.

So the executive suggested a compromise for both sides: $45 million over two years.

“Kuminga is a wing, so his floor should at least be the midlevel exception,” the executive said. “So that’s why he could risk (a short-term deal) or the qualifying offer. (If he took the qualifying offer), there’s a few teams with cap room next summer who may strike out and have interest also.”

Previous players have picked up qualifying offers. Sometimes, it works out swimmingly. Ben Gordon did so more than a decade and a half ago, put up a tremendous season with the Bulls, and then received a payday from the Detroit Pistons the next summer. Other times, it’s a catastrophe, like in the case of Nerlens Noel, who turned down a giant extension because it wasn’t for the max and took the qualifying offer, only to land a minimum contract as a free agent the following offseason.

But there’s an argument to be made that Kuminga taking the qualifying offer would be riskier for the Warriors than it would be for him, just as one executive who suggested $65 million over three years for Kuminga explained.

“If he takes the qualifying offer, the Warriors are f—– from a team-building standpoint, because they need to get him on a deal where they can trade him,” the executive said. “That’s the key for them.”

Since losing Chris Paul last summer, the Warriors, who went 48-34 last season before losing in the second round of the playoffs, have been on the prowl for a replacement — not necessarily searching for a heady point guard but instead for someone who makes around Paul’s salary. Such is the way of the NBA today, where teams most commonly improve via trade, not free agency, where rules about matching salaries are stricter than ever and thus making salaries above the midlevel, but way below the max, even more valuable.

Part of the reason the Warriors traded for Paul was to turn over a salary slot, swapping Jordan Poole for the future Hall of Famer, who made a shade above $30 million in 2023-24. When Paul signed with the San Antonio Spurs last summer, that number shrank to zero.

Teams around the league are on a constant mission to string along those middling salary slots for as long as possible. Kuminga’s free agency gives the Warriors an opportunity to create a new chain.

Even if Golden State doesn’t consider Kuminga part of its long-term plans, which is possible given the sometimes funky fit and the way the team has shuffled him in and out of the starting lineup, it could value Kuminga as a trade piece as much as it does a player.

The Warriors need a guy in that salary range more than maybe any other team.

Three players on their roster earn more than $20 million: Stephen Curry and Jimmy Butler, who both make the max, and Draymond Green, who will make $25.9 million this season but is a staple within that organization. Contributors Moses Moody and Buddy Hield will earn $11.6 million and $9.2 million next season. Then the numbers shrivel. Brandin Podziemski makes essentially the equivalent of the veteran’s minimum. The three remaining guys make even less.

The Warriors need players, and they need a desirable salary between Moody’s and Butler’s that gives them a tool to acquire someone of significance midseason.

Kuminga is young, talented and has enough fans within the league to fit the bill.

“(Of the four restricted guys), I have the worst read on (Kuminga), particularly because contract and player value seem the most misaligned, given the Warriors’ need for tradable salary,” said one respondent who suggested a three-year, $53.5 million deal (with a player option) for Kuminga. “I personally would give him slightly above the Grimes number, but I think it’ll come in higher — around 12 percent of the cap at a starting salary of around $18 million to give the Warriors more tradable salary on a two-plus-one.”

However, this contract was one of the more modest ones mentioned in the poll.

There was a two-year deal with a bloated payment, $22.5 million per season.

Four of the three-year deals ranged from $51 million total to $60 million total. Two people submitted $65 million over three years. Another said $68 million over three years, and another said $70 million over three years.

Five of the 10 people who responded with three-year contracts included a player option.

Their reasoning followed the same logic: If Kuminga isn’t receiving a giant contract today, then short-term flexibility could help him land one soon. In this case, Kuminga could play on this contract for two more seasons, then hit the market again in 2027, when he would be unrestricted and there could be more teams with cap space.

“If I’m the agent, I’m trying to get a short-term deal so I can get out of there and get somewhere else but still make some money in the meantime,” said one team official who suggested a three-year, $65 million contract.

Negotiators will often use comparable contracts as a way to measure what their clients deserve. With that in mind, the executive who suggested the largest three-year deal ($70 million guaranteed, $23.3 million a year) invoked another young, gunslinging scorer when breaking down Kuminga’s situation.

A year ago, when a member of the same 2021 draft class as Kuminga was eligible for an extension, he eventually agreed with his team on a large contract — though one that wasn’t as gaudy as it could have been for a former No. 2 pick.

Jalen Green inked a three-year, $105 million deal with the Houston Rockets. His new salary will kick in this season. Kuminga hasn’t proven as much as Green did. The Rockets’ cap situation then was more flexible than the Warriors’ is right now. But the concept is the same.

These are two similarly aged, uber-talented players, capable of going off on any given night but whose score-first styles also inspire mixed reactions, including from their own teams.

“It feels like a Jalen Green-type deal that keeps him tradeable,” the team official who suggested the three-year, $70 million contract said. “Definitely less than he probably wants, but the player option gives him some options.”

Oh, and there is one more trait Kuminga and Green could have in common if Kuminga were to sign a contract like this: A month ago, one year after Green agreed to his extension with the Rockets, Houston traded him.

Because the Rockets had his money lying around, they needed to include only one other player of significance, Dillon Brooks, in the exchange for Kevin Durant. A middling salary for Green facilitated the acquisition of a superstar.

Landing the greatest scorer of a generation is the best-case scenario. But either way, it’s an example of how Green-like salaries, especially when they’re for young players with upside, keep options open for organizations.

The Warriors will want to stay flexible, ready to pounce on immediate upgrades, especially with Curry, Butler and Draymond Green in their mid-to-late 30s. Kuminga, like anyone, will want a handsome payment.

Even as restricted free agency suffocates anyone who enters it, the two sides can find a worthwhile compromise.

(Top photo: Ezra Shaw / Getty Images)