With a blistering 24-1 start, the Oklahoma City Thunder are chasing the best teams in NBA regular-season history.
Now matching the pace of the 2015-16 Golden State Warriors’ record-breaking 73-9 season, Oklahoma City is dominating opponents with an NBA-best 17.4 average point differential.
Can Oklahoma City push Golden State’s regular-season wins record and reach 74-8? It could come down to the team finally getting healthy while also getting some breaks in the regular-season schedule.
But then there’s the argument against: Attaining a vaunted NBA record is a nice achievement to play for, but Oklahoma City presumably wants back-to-back NBA championships more than anything else.
The Warriors’ 2016 record is a fun regular season to remember. But that year, Golden State also fell short of winning an NBA title and maintaining its dynasty — something the Thunder hope to avoid.
Let’s dig into the arguments for and against a historic shot.
OKC’s win-total and NBA Finals odds
Their unbelievable start positions the Thunder as current favorites to win the NBA Finals at BetMGM with +150 odds. With the way Oklahoma City is dominating so far, it’s natural to wonder if the Thunder can challenge for the best team ever.
With a current BetMGM win total over/under at 69.5 wins (-140 over/+115 under), Oklahoma City is currently favored to become the third 70-win team in NBA history. The -140 odds for “over 69.5” imply a more than 58 percent chance of getting there.
Going even deeper, you can bet on the Thunder to break the record, as FanDuel is offering Oklahoma City 74+ wins at +360 odds (21 percent chance) and 75+ wins at +580 odds (nearly 15 percent chance).
Defending champs even deeper now than last season
When it comes to potentially surpassing Golden State’s 73-win mark, Oklahoma City already tied the sixth-best record in NBA regular-season history a year ago by finishing 68-14. Last season saw talented big man Chet Holmgren miss 50 games with injury, but the Thunder still managed a 42-8 record without one of the league’s best frontcourt players.
Now that Holmgren is healthy, and the Thunder withstood Williams’ early-season injury with only one loss, a fully-loaded rotation could be unstoppable. Despite All-NBA wing Jalen Williams only suiting up in five games, the Thunder continually blitz every opponent thanks to another MVP-caliber season from guard Shai Gilgeous-Alexander and one of the deepest rosters in league history.
Gilgeous-Alexander (+160 odds) currently sits atop the BetMGM MVP odds during another brilliant season. Defensive Player of the Year is currently paced by Holmgren (+160 odds). Limited to only 36 games a season ago, reserve guard Ajay Mitchell (+1100 odds) is fourth in BetMGM’s Sixth Man of the Year odds as another capable scorer. A full rotation gives Oklahoma City seven players currently averaging at least 12 points per game, coupled with defensive specialists like Luguentz Dort, Cason Wallace and Alex Caruso.
The Thunder’s outstanding depth at each position enables them to withstand subpar individual games and short-term injuries. They already consistently won games over the last two regular seasons without Holmgren or Williams on the floor. If Gilgeous-Alexander stays on the floor and the Thunder can avoid a long list of injuries at the same time, they have All-Star-caliber talent and quality depth to make another historic run.
Could a favorable schedule help the Thunder?
Looking at Oklahoma City’s remaining schedule, there are still far too many games to accurately predict anything.
Back-to-back games, however, could play a factor in Oklahoma City’s pursuit of 74 wins. The only loss for the Thunder this season came at Portland on the second night of a back-to-back in the midst of a four-game road trip.
The Thunder are tied for the league low with only 13 back-to-backs this season. For comparison, half the league will play 16 back-to-backs this season. Last season, the Thunder played 16 back-to-backs and went 11-5.
Road trips could also factor into OKC’s quest. There’s a four-game road swing featuring matchups with Houston and Cleveland scheduled for mid-January. An early February stretch features five road games out of seven and puts the Thunder on the road against Minnesota, Denver, San Antonio and the Lakers. A March trip places Oklahoma City on the East Coast for five games as well.
Grinding through 23 playoff games to win last season’s NBA championship is added mileage for Oklahoma City in the later months of the year. The Thunder could also lock up a No. 1 overall seed early and play mostly reserves for the final stretch of the regular season while trying to stay fresh for another postseason run.
The case against: A lesson in history and pacing
Law Murray, who covers the NBA for The Athletic, is pumping the brakes on all this hype over a 70-win season. Why? Here he is, in his own words:
The Oklahoma City Thunder are an absolutely rude basketball team. They just beat the Phoenix Suns by 49 points, setting a season-high for point differential. They’ve already won five games by at least 30 points, one season after winning “only” eight regular-season games by at least 30 points. Most importantly, the Thunder are following up a 68-14 season where they won Game 7 of the NBA Finals by getting off to a 24-1 start, winning a franchise-record 16 straight games to match the 2015-16 Warriors’ 25-game start that saw them set an NBA record 73 wins.
So the Thunder are going to get to 73 wins. Right? Is that how this works?
I’m pumping the brakes on earmarking the Thunder for breaking the wins record, or even getting to 70 wins. Admittedly, it’s more about precedent than anything else.
That 2016 Warriors team did win 73 games. They also led 3-1 in the NBA Finals against the Cleveland Cavaliers. But they will be remembered for falling short and blowing that 3-1 Finals lead. They only won 60 games once since then, and it took signing Kevin Durant for that to happen. The Warriors valued pacing themselves for the rest of their dynasty.
The 1996 Bulls weren’t defending champions and played in a much slower-paced era featuring the cramped spacing that came with the mid-1990s 3-point line. That Chicago team was the second-oldest team in the league, but they got 82 games (and 3,090 minutes!) from Michael Jordan, another 77 games from Scottie Pippen and 81 games from Sixth Man of the Year Toni Kukoč. None of Chicago’s top eight players missed more than 20 games.
The other thing the 1996 Bulls and 2016 Warriors showed was that the losses are much more likely to come at the end of the season. The 1996 Bulls lost only two of their first 20 games and reached the 41-game mark at 41-3. But they lost four games in the third quarter of the season and three games in the last 20.
The 2016 Warriors started 24-0. But they lost four games by midseason, the 41st game. With 20 games left, the Warriors had a 56-6 record, then matched the Bulls by finishing 17-3 in their last 20.
There will be more losses for the Thunder in the second half of the season than in the first half. Can they get to MLK Weekend with only three more losses over the next two months? Oklahoma City still has to play 17 games against Eastern Conference teams with winning records, as the only Eastern Conference team with a winning record so far that the Thunder have faced is ninth-place Atlanta, and that was in the first week of the season.
The Thunder also have four more games against arguably their biggest threats, the Denver Nuggets, who are second in the West. Those games won’t begin until February. There are still two more meetings with the Houston Rockets, three more against the Los Angeles Lakers and now five more against the San Antonio Spurs due to the Spurs and Thunder meeting Saturday for the right to play in next week’s NBA Cup championship.
There’s a lot for the Thunder to look forward to. They have the best defense in the NBA by far, and they have yet to play with their ideal starting lineup of reigning MVP Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, All-NBA and All-Defense selection Jalen Williams, All-Defense selection Luguentz Dort, power forward Chet Holmgren and center Isaiah Hartenstein. But if the goal is to win the championship, the Thunder will likely have a decent cushion going into the playoffs in both conferences for home-court advantage.
There’s a long way to go and a lot more to see before the Thunder can plan on setting a regular-season record, especially with bigger goals in mind.
