The NBA title race just got a whole lot more interesting. Jayson Tatum is reportedly making his return to the Celtics this season, possibly this Friday against the Mavs. What should we watch up on his return? And are the Celtics the team to beat in the East? Our writers weigh in.
What’s your reaction to the news of Tatum’s return?
Tom Haberstroh: Here. We. Go. In terms of regular-season developments, this is probably the most highly-anticipated appearance since Luka Dončić’s first game with the Lakers. It seems awfully quick based on recent high-profile player timelines. He’s three months ahead of Dejounte Murray’s absence and eight months ahead of Kevin Durant’s injury-to-return timeline. I’m really not sure what to expect.
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Dan Devine: I have to imagine that all the stakeholders involved — the Celtics’ medical and training team, Brad Stevens and his front office, Joe Mazzulla and his coaching staff, Tatum’s representation, Tatum’s family and friends, and, obviously, most importantly, Tatum himself — are operating with both the best possible information and an appropriate abundance of caution. I have to imagine that they came to the conclusion that returning now, affording him six weeks of regular-season ramp-up before the season gets serious, rather than two months from now, when the Celtics will be in the throes of a playoff series, is the safer, more prudent option. I understand all that, intellectually.
But as an inherently anxious and nervous person who was there at Madison Square Garden when Tatum ruptured his Achilles against the Knicks, and one who read Haberstroh’s column on Achilles recovery timelines, I’d be lying if I said my immediate reaction was anything but, “Man, I really hope everybody signing off this soon is right.”
Ben Rohrbach: What a job Jaylen Brown has done steering the ship in Jayson Tatum’s absence. The league continued apace for 10 months without its brightest American-born star. It waits for no man, and in Boston we expected that to mean hard times for a team that not only lost Tatum to an Achilles injury but a handful more championship contributors to a looming luxury-tax bill.
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That was supposed to lead the Celtics into the lottery, where there would be no need for Tatum’s return this season. But up stepped Brown, stewarding the Celtics back to the top of the Eastern Conference standings, where they will meet Tatum as he left them — contending. As one hero makes his triumphant return, let us not lose sight of another who held the fort in the meantime.
What’s one thing you’ll be watching upon Tatum’s return?
Devine: How well he moves. It’s a basic answer, I’ll grant … but it’s kind of the whole thing, you know? Is Tatum able to push off with roughly the same power and burst? To get the same lift on his jumper? To return to beating defenders off the dribble and slice to the rim? To slide his feet on defense and seamlessly switch assignments? To elevate for rebounds in traffic — and do it without fear of what might happen when he lands?
It would be unreasonable to expect Tatum to be as powerful, explosive and all-out excellent as he was before he went down — when, if you don’t remember, he was in the middle of a 42-point, 8-rebound, 4-assist, 4-steal, 2-block masterclass on the road against a damn good Knicks team — right when he comes back, and maybe at any point during this late-season return. The hope, though, is that he’ll be able to move something like the All-NBA mainstay we remember. That’s what I’ll be watching for.
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Rohrbach: How he fits in. At the tail end of the latest segment of Tatum’s mini-documentary for NBC, which has chronicled his return, he said something interesting to his doctor — that he was not coming back to be a role player. It may be best for him to accept a role, deferring to Brown and a team that has established its own identity in his absence, at least this season. But is Tatum capable of easing in as a supporting cast member? Or will he force Brown and company to adjust to him?
Haberstroh: His minutes totals. Murray is playing roughly 25 minutes a night for the Pelicans, who have nothing to play for. Tatum is better and so are the Celtics. The stakes are higher too which makes this especially tricky for stakeholders. Is Tatum going to play 15-20 minutes? Will he go full throttle? For perspective, KD averaged 35 minutes in his first 10 games back from his Achilles tear, but that was after 18 months away. My guess is he’ll slowly ramp up and get to ~30 minutes for playoff time.
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Does a healthy Tatum make the Celtics the team to beat in the East?
Rohrbach: It is too much to put on Tatum, who will need time to work his way back into form. We should have serious doubts about whether or not he can reach anything close to his peak at all this season. He should be a valuable contributor to an already good team, and that is it. The Celtics have a chance. But to say they are the favorites — some six months after they shedded Jrue Holiday, Kristaps Porziņģis, Al Horford and Luke Kornet — just because Tatum is taking the floor again, seems like a stretch. To win would be a fairy tale. It should not be the expectation.
Haberstroh: Healthy is a loaded word. Fully healthy, peak Tatum? Yes. Healthy enough to play, but very limited? I’m not penciling them into the Finals just yet. I just wish he was coming back with a full training camp and preseason. Without that, I’m still in wait-and-see mode.
Devine: If he’s clearly less-than while still commanding the kind of primary role he had when he went down, and if that disrupts the frankly remarkable rhythm the Celtics have built in his absence? Then no: Boston can get got in a playoff series. Maybe even an early one, if the matchups break wrong. If he looks more or less like Jayson Tatum by mid-April, though? It’d be awfully tough to pick against them.
