We’re now in the last days of the 2024-25 NBA regular season, and teams across the league are preparing for a postseason battle to remember.
Particularly in the Western Conference, the race for the playoffs has never been tighter, with the Nos. 3 to 8 seeds flip-flopping almost every night, all separated by only 1½ games, at most.
Keep your attention turned toward the Minnesota Timberwolves, LA Clippers, Memphis Grizzlies and Golden State Warriors, all neck and neck for that No. 6 seed and a chance to avoid the play-in tournament.
While the Los Angeles Lakers are on the brink of securing their first top-six seed since the 2019-20 campaign, the Phoenix Suns have been teetering on the line of elimination while looking to catch the Sacramento Kings down the stretch for a chance to at least make the play-in.
The Western Conference drama — including what lies ahead for Kevin Durant and whom Stephen Curry and the Warriors would want to avoid in the first round — could come down to the final day of the regular season on Sunday.
Here’s what our NBA insiders Michael C. Wright, Brian Windhorst, Dave McMenamin, Ohm Youngmisuk, Tim MacMahon, Kevin Pelton and Zach Kram have to say about this wild West.
What’s next for Ja Morant and the Grizzlies as they fight for home-court advantage under an interim coach?
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Memphis got the hard part out of the way on Thursday by finally winning its first game under Tuomas Iisalo, with Morant nailing a buzzer-beater to cap a 30-point performance at the Miami Heat. With so little time left in the regular season, the Grizzlies now need to home in on the elements of Iisalo’s system that best position the team for success in the playoffs. It’s clear Iisalo wants to feature Morant more on the offensive end, but the Grizz need to find a way to do it while also optimizing Jaren Jackson Jr. and Desmond Bane. Expectations for the postseason appear to be low internally, with general manager Zach Kleiman saying he is looking for “clarity of direction” under Iisalo. But if Memphis finds a way to surprise in the playoffs, it could go a long way in stabilizing a shaky situation between the team and Morant caused by the abrupt firing of Taylor Jenkins. — Michael C. Wright
Which team in the West poses the biggest threat to the Oklahoma City Thunder?
The Denver Nuggets, the last Western team to win the NBA title (2023), are the most likely to pull off an upset against an Oklahoma City squad that will end up with the best point differential in league history. Nikola Jokic presents a massive matchup problem for anyone, even a team that can play a pair of 7-foot rim protectors together in Chet Holmgren and Isaiah Hartenstein. Jokic offered a resounding reminder of that in Oklahoma City on March 10, when he registered 35 points, 18 rebounds and 8 assists in a win that was aided by Jamal Murray’s 34 points to secure a 2-2 split in the regular-season series. The Nuggets will need that kind of production from their No. 2 option to get through Oklahoma City, which will be quite a challenge with Murray’s Team Canada teammate Lu Dort leading the Thunder’s top-ranked defense. — Tim MacMahon
What’s next for the Suns if they miss the play-in entirely?
What’s worse than being a second apron team? Being one that missed the playoffs with a $400 million payroll, including luxury taxes. What’s worse than that? Having the player you need to trade in Bradley Beal own a no-trade clause and giving on-the-record quotes about holding all the cards. OK, one more question: Do the Suns want to trade Kevin Durant this summer? No, not really. But the reality is that the Suns’ pathways of getting out of the second apron — to ensure they have flexibility — all seem to lead to Durant. They can’t trade Beal and won’t trade Devin Booker. That is why at the trade deadline the Suns held talks with a handful of teams about Durant trades, conversations that are likely to lead to action this summer. One of the reasons there wasn’t a Durant trade in February — other than Durant himself making it clear he didn’t want one — is the Suns were looking for a massive haul in return, per sources.
Regardless of how much Durant has left in the tank, that might not be in the cards. Durant will be 37 years old at the start of next season, and while he’s absolutely still worth the $55 million he will earn next season, the two-year, $120 million max extension he may be looking for might not attract suitors. Teams that will want Durant will be title contenders who generally have high payrolls already. If the Suns arrive at a crossroads where they have to move Durant, they might have to make a decision between getting what they want, which is a beautiful package of players and draft capital, and settling for what they need, which is flexibility. Last summer, for example, the Clippers chose flexibility over all else when letting Paul George leave. It was a hard decision, but it has changed their entire horizon. The Suns might end up studying that decision closely. — Brian Windhorst
What will it take for the Lakers to make an NBA Finals run?
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An accommodating draw. With a handful of games left in the regular season, L.A. could feasibly finish anywhere from No. 3 to No. 8 in the West. Avoiding the play-in tournament and securing the No. 6 spot or better would give the Lakers a week to prepare for the playoffs and afford some time for a few of their banged-up players (LeBron James, Luka Doncic and Rui Hachimura topping that list) to heal. If they can finish No. 4 or better, they would begin by hosting their first-round series at Crypto.com Arena, where they have the second-best home record in the West. “We would like to be in the top four,” coach JJ Redick said Thursday. “We’d like to have home court [advantage]. I think beyond just playing well at home, it would be nice for our guys to finish [the regular season] in Portland and then be able to be home for nine or 10 days.” Of the teams below them, the Grizzlies would be the preferred matchup considering L.A.’s playoff success against them in 2023 and its 3-1 mark to win the regular-season series. Then again, facing a team such as Denver early for a chance to avenge previous playoff series against the Nuggets could provide a boost. Or playing the Clippers and not having to travel at all — and seeing Laker Nation storm the gates of the Intuit Dome for “road” games — could be a beneficial series to start things off. If the Lakers can finish No. 3 and avoid a showdown with Oklahoma City until the conference finals, they’d potentially be trying to take down the West’s No. 1 seed after already having played high-level hoops for a month straight, with their belief factor growing the entire time. — Dave McMenamin
The team the Warriors should want to avoid in the first round is: _______.
Oklahoma City. It would be devastating for the Warriors, after spending much of the past two months chasing down and then holding on to the sixth spot, to fall into the play-in tourney in the final week of the regular season. If the Warriors drop below sixth, they would lose a valuable week off before the first round and have to battle in the play-in. Stephen Curry (age 37), Draymond Green (35) and Jimmy Butler III (35) could then potentially face a young and athletic Thunder squad. The Warriors believe they can go up against any opponent given the championship pedigree of Curry, Green and Steve Kerr not to mention the addition of “Playoff Jimmy.” But despite being 2-1 against the Thunder before the Butler trade, facing Oklahoma would be a difficult matchup.
On top of finding a way to contain MVP favorite Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, the Warriors would have to deal with emerging stars Chet Holmgren and Jalen Williams. With one of the top defenses in the league, the Thunder can send multiple defenders at Curry, starting with the physical Lu Dort and Alex Caruso. And inside, Holmgren and Isaiah Hartenstein can give the smaller Warriors trouble. Curry told ESPN in January that he and the Warriors feel they can beat anyone in a seven-game series. Butler’s arrival only enhances that confidence. But the Warriors would rather avoid the league’s best team in the first round and use their time off to prepare their star players. — Ohm Youngmisuk
What’s behind the Timberwolves’ late-season surge, and is it sustainable?
Minnesota has maintained a top-10 defense basically all season, but the offense has leaped forward down the stretch. At the end of February, the Timberwolves ranked 13th in offensive rating. But since the start of March, they’ve had the third-best offense, behind only the Clippers and Boston Celtics. Much of that improvement stems from hot shooting in the backcourt: Over that stretch, Mike Conley has made an astonishing 53.2% of his 3-pointers, while Donte DiVincenzo is shooting 43% from deep. Jaden McDaniels (38.2%) and Julius Randle (36.6%) also have boosted their efficiency, surrounding Anthony Edwards with plenty of spacing.
We shouldn’t expect Minnesota’s role players to stay this hot for the rest of the season; nobody in the NBA makes 53.2% of his 3s over a long span. The Timberwolves also have benefited from a relatively easy slate of opponents during this stretch: In March, they went 10-1 against sub-.500 opponents and 3-2 versus teams with winning records. They’re looking better now than how they looked for most of the campaign while struggling to incorporate Randle and DiVincenzo. — Zach Kram
What do the projections say the likely first-round matchups in the West will be?
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There’s bad news for Western playoff teams hoping to get a jump on scouting their first-round opponents: With less than a week left in the regular season, nothing besides Oklahoma City finishing first is close to decided. By contrast to the Eastern Conference, where the 4-5 matchup could essentially only involve the Detroit Pistons, Indiana Pacers and Milwaukee Bucks, no single Western matchup happens in more than 27% of simulations using ESPN’s Basketball Power Index.
Even that single most likely Western series, between the Grizzlies and the Houston Rockets, might not be set until after the first night of play-in action, because Houston most likely will face the winner of the opening play-in game as the No. 2 seed. — Kevin Pelton
