Here are a few hundred words on all eight games this week.
As always, Saturday projections will change slightly based on the results from Thursday’s games.
Updated AmEast Power Ratings
Vermont @ UMass Lowell (6 p.m. ET, ESPN+)
Rather big test here for both squads.
For all their flaws, the Catamounts still lead the AmEast in 2-point shooting allowed (46%), paint points per game allowed (22), transition points per game allowed (seven), and defensive rebounding rate (83%). They’ve also packed it in more than ever, forcing opponents to beat them over the top (42% 3-point rate allowed, last in AmEast).
Against Lowell’s offense, which ignores catch-and-shoot 3s in favor of rim-running cuts, offensive rebounds, and transition buckets, Vermont matches up well.
However, the Catamounts have compiled that statistical profile on the back of narrow wins against New Hampshire, Binghamton, and Maine’s inept offenses. Without Noah Barnett and TJ Long, Albany made Vermont’s defense look pedestrian across the board.
I worry that Gus Yalden will again be exposed in this matchup, and I don’t think Lucas Mari and David Simon are physical enough to contain the River Hawks’ frontcourt.
All that said, I’m still not a believer in Lowell’s defense, either off the dribble or in the post, meaning Yalden, Sean Blake, and TJ Hurley should generate some offense. However, Lowell does a nice job of denying catch-and-shoot opportunities, which could throw a wrench in some of John Becker’s perimeter off-ball actions (I think this could be a particularly tough matchup for Ben Johnson, who continues to start while Long is in a boot).
TLDR: This game might come down to tempo. Vermont likely wants to muck it up, while Lowell wants to speed it up. Whoever wins that battle likely wins the war.
Injury Notes: No updates on Long. Barnett is very much questionable.
Albany @ Maine (6 p.m. ET, ESPN+)
It’s tough to make a valid argument for Maine on Thursday, given Albany is firing on all cylinders (other than the fact that this is a typical spot for some crazy, totally unpredictable AmEast result, with Albany off a big win and Maine off a disgusting loss).
The Black Bears couldn’t create any ball-screen buckets against New Hampshire, and while Albany’s ball-screen coverage is still dubious, the Danes are better than the Wildcats in that regard — they lead the league in defensive efficiency for a reason.
The Black Bears’ extended defense will likely deny all those pretty off-ball actions the Danes ran against Vermont on Monday, and it’s worth noting Albany can’t run offense against press coverage (.72 PPP, fourth percentile). However, Albany also likes attacking in isolation, and while Maine plays good team defense, the Bears can get targeted individually on switches. Also worth noting that Albany is a good zone offense (.85 PPP, 76th percentile), meaning Chris Markwood might not be able to mix in his patented 2-3 zone.
Worth mentioning that Albany is 1-5 against Maine since Markwood took over, with an 13.7-point average margin of defeat.
TLDR: Given the trajectory of these two, one would think Albany rolls. However, crazier things have happened in this spot, and it’s a weird schematic matchup.
Injury Notes: Jaden Kempson has been dealing with a few different injuries, and he’s questionable for this evening.
NJIT @ UMBC (6 p.m. ET, ESPN+)
If there were a matchup for NJIT to suffer a letdown loss, this is it.
The Retreivers’ drive-and-kick game should be able to exploit the Highlanders’ interior shell defense, and UMBC’s guards won’t cough the ball up against NJIT’s stunts and overhelp.
On the other end, the Highlanders are more versatile on offense than ever, but it’ll require a heroic effort from Melvyn Ebonkoli and Ari Fulton against the Retrievers’ vulnerable post/rim defense, as UMBC’s dribble defenders likely keep Sebastian Robinson and David Bolden at bay.
TLDR: Looks like the perfect letdown spot for NJIT.
Injuries: No word on Jeremy Clayville.
Binghamton @ New Hampshire (6 p.m. ET, ESPN+)
If New Hampshire’s dribble defense plays as well as it did against Maine on Monday, Binghamton might have a tough time scoring. Then again, Maine doesn’t have any guards at the level of Jeremiah Quigley.
The Bearcats will need Quigley to play Superman, because I trust the Wildcat frontline to stand strong against Binghamton’s rim-runners.
At the same time, Binghamton’s post defense has been rather good behind Zyier Beverely and Wes Peterson, which is crucial against New Hampshire’s post-centric offense. The frontcourt matchup between Beverely/Peterson and Belal El Shakery/Comeh Emuobor likely decides the game.
I’m still waiting for some more shooting regression from the Wildcats, but their 5-for-18 3-point performance against Maine makes me think the Regression Train has pulled into Durham Station.
TLDR: Feels like a rock fight decided in the frontcourt.
Injury Notes: None, other than the Binghamton five that are out for the season.
UMass Lowell @ UMBC (1 p.m. ET, ESPN+)
I have a feeling this will be a barn-burner.
As New Hampshire did, Lowell should eat away at UMBC at the rim, although the River Hawks will likely be more effective.
On the other end of the court, I don’t know how Lowell stays in front of the Retriever guards. While the Hawks are a decent catch-and-shoot denial defense, they’re either going to get beaten on downhill straight line drives, or they’ll bring help and open up UMBC’s deadly drive-and-kick game.
These are also the two best transition attacks in the league.
Injury Notes: Everyone seems healthy. Worth mentioning that JJ Massaquoi and Jared Frey are both healthy but have been phased out of the rotation.
Vermont @ Bryant (1 p.m. ET, ESPN+)
I hate to be lame, but I’m honestly uncertain if I can break this game down properly without knowing the health status of Long and/or Barnett.
My gut feeling is that this will be a disgusting, lower-scoring game. Bryant’s size and switchability should match up well with Yalden in post sets and the Catamounts’ perimeter off-ball actions. Meanwhile, I simply have zero faith in Bryant’s offense, especially when facing off against a Becker-led squad that will have a good gameplan.
That said, the situational spot does favor Bryant, given the Bulldogs won’t play on Thursday and thus have extra rest and prep for a home matchup with a potentially shorthanded Catamount squad.
TLDR: No Points. Good spot for the Bulldogs if they can find some scoring.
Injury Notes: Still no news on Quincy Allen.
Albany @ New Hampshire (2 p.m. ET, ESPN+)
I’m surprised to see I make the Danes an underdog, but I have been rather high on the Wildcats.
I’d like to think that Okechukwu Okeke can go toe-to-toe with Shakery and hang in post defense, but I’m honestly unsure. Yalden worked Okeke in the post, but Shakery isn’t at the level of the Gus Bus.
Emuobor and Shakery have played just 80 minutes together this season, with the team posting a -14.6 net rating in those minutes (for context, the Wildcats have posted a -6.7 with Shakery on and Emuobor off, and -23.8 vice versa). However, I wouldn’t be surprised to see some extra two-big lineups, as I think whoever draws the matchup with one of Albany’s slightly slimmer wings (like Isaac Abidde or Abdoulaye Fall) might have a post mismatch.
Very interested to see if New Hampshire can create against Dwayne Killings’ amoeba zone. The Wildcats attacked Markwood’s 2-3 very well on Monday, but those defenses are structured far differently — the Danes will spend more time forcing the ball to the corners and trapping. Ultimately, New Hampshire probably has to keep hitting shots over the top (still 37% from 3 in conference play).
New Hampshire should be able to keep Albany out of transition, which is important. But I don’t think I trust the Wildcats to stay in front of Amir Lindsey off the dribble.
TLDR: Weird matchup. We’ll see. Might come down to shot-making.
Binghamton @ Maine (2 p.m. ET, ESPN+)
With Maine playing extended pressure defense, Binghamton will have a good shot to run its rim-running, cut-heavy offense. In the two head-to-head matchups last season (split results), Levell Sanders’ squad scored a combined 35 points on 24 cuts (1.46 PPP). While this is a new, very different season, I still expect guys like Beverly, Peterson, and Bryson Wilson to get plenty of opportunities.
The question is whether Quigley and the Bearcats can operate effectively when Markwood mixes in the 2-3. They’re a bad zone offense (.86 PPP, 13th percentile), which showed in their matchup with Albany (12 points on 16 zone possessions) — but, as mentioned, no two zones are the same.
After a red-hot start, TJ Biel slowed down in the past week in his matchups with Vermont and New Hampshire. Can he get his lick back here?
TLDR: If Biel gives Maine offense, the Bears should get out of here with a win. If not, things could get spooky against the 0-5 Bearcats.
