AP men’s basketball Top 25: Duke remains No. 1, BYU, Louisville fall out for first time this season

Duke, Arizona and Michigan held steady as the top three teams in the Associated Press men’s college basketball Top 25 on Monday, continuing to distance themselves from the field with two weeks until Selection Sunday.

The Blue Devils, who moved up to No. 1 last week, received 55 of 59 first-place votes, with the Wildcats receiving the other four.

Duke, Arizona and Michigan are all 27-2 and appear to be near-locks to be No. 1 seeds when the 2026 NCAA Tournament bracket is unveiled on March 15. The fourth No. 1 seed continues to be up for debate — as evidenced by the movement in the rest of the top 10 this week.

UConn and Florida each jumped two spots to Nos. 4 and 5, respectively, after undefeated weeks that included ranked wins. The Huskies, who defeated the Gators in a neutral-court matchup on Dec. 9, might hold the edge for the final No. 1 seed because of it. But Florida, the defending national champion, has the longest active winning streak of any power-conference team at nine games.

Elsewhere in the poll, Texas Tech was the week’s biggest climber, moving up six spots from No. 16 to No. 10. And Purdue, after losing to Michigan State and Ohio State, was the biggest faller, dropping seven positions from No. 8 to No. 15.

BYU and Louisville each fell out of the poll this week for the first time this season. Both had spent time in the top 10 earlier in the campaign, but the Cougars have dropped eight of their last 12 and the Cardinals have lost three of four.

Saint Mary’s, which defeated Gonzaga on Saturday, and Miami (Fla.) replaced them.

Here’s the full poll, along with the ballot of The Athletic’s C.J. Moore:

Others receiving votes: BYU 74, Kentucky 47, Louisville 47, Missouri 40, Wisconsin 27, Clemson 16, Utah State 10, UCF 7, High Point 7, Dayton 5, Villanova 4, Navy 3, NC State 2, TCU 2, Ohio State 1, Santa Clara 1.

Three teams above the rest

At this point, Duke, Michigan and Arizona seem to be in a battle to see who is the No. 1 overall seed. Michigan is No. 1 in every resume ranking on the team sheet and No. 2 at BPI, the NET and KenPom, behind Duke in all three. Duke also has the head-to-head matchup, but if Duke loses another game and Michigan or Arizona win their remaining games, that No. 1 overall could still change. As I wrote last week, it might even be a debate if Michigan wins out.

UConn is No. 4 across the board in resume rankings but ranks in the 8-10 range in the quality/predictive systems, while Florida, fifth-best for average resume ranking, is No. 4 at KenPom, Torvik and the NET. UConn does have the head-to-head win, but it’ll be interesting to see how the selection committee handles that one. I also have the Huskies ahead of the Gators, but I would listen to an argument for slotting Florida as a No. 1 seed. Since its 5-4 start, which included losses to Arizona, at Duke and UConn, the Gators have been the best team in college hoops, per Torvik.

Teams trending up

My biggest movers this week were Florida, Michigan State and Texas Tech, all moving up four spots. The team sheets get messy in that 6-14 range. One thing I like to do is look at bad losses, which I qualify as losing to a team that likely will not make the NCAA Tournament, and quality wins, which I qualify as coming against a team currently in my Top 25. Here’s how those teams perform with quality wins first/bad losses second:

Houston (2 quality wins/0 bad losses)
Michigan State (5/1)
Illinois (4/0)
Nebraska (3/0)
Texas Tech (4/1)
Iowa State (4/1.5 — TCU is on bubble and gets the 0.5 treatment)
Purdue (4/1 — one of Indiana and Ohio State isn’t likely to make field, so combined that’s a one)
Alabama (5/0)
Kansas (5/2)

Houston is at the top because it is still rating favorably in predictive metrics and its five losses are to all teams in my Top 25. Nebraska has a similar resume but doesn’t rank as high in the predictive metrics. Michigan State moved up with the win at Purdue (extra credit for a road win). Texas Tech has arguably the best collection of wins — Duke, Houston, Arizona and Iowa State — but Purdue and Illinois both have a head-to-head advantage. Alabama is picking up momentum with five wins against my Top 25, but Purdue won on the road there and rates higher in all the predictive rankings by 5-10 spots. Kansas is only one in that group with two losses to teams not likely to make the field. But you could take the data and mix these teams in just about any order and be justified. That’s why the No. 2 and No. 3 seed lines still feel wide open. The committee will have a lot of work to do to figure out how to rank those teams.

The back end of the poll

It was tough this week to find teams to rank in the final few spots. I finally considered Miami (Ohio) because its resume numbers keep climbing by remaining undefeated. The RedHawks are up to 21 in Strength of Record and 32 in Wins Above Bubble, but at WAB, that’s below my bottom three of Kentucky (24), Wisconsin (27) and Louisville (26). Miami (Ohio) still ranks really low in the quality/predictive metrics, sitting as low as 87 at KenPom. And the RedHawks have still yet to play a Quad 1 game and have just one Quad 2 win.

Wisconsin, Kentucky and Louisville are all tied with the 16th-most Q1 wins at six. Louisville’s only losses are in Q1, it’s 4-0 in Q2 and ranks 19th at KenPom. I ranked Kentucky and Wisconsin ahead of the Cards because they both have three Q1A wins, which are against either a top-15 opponent at home, a top-25 opponent on a neutral or a top-40 opponent on the road. Louisville is 0-8 in those games.

Ranked-vs.-ranked games this week

No. 6 Iowa State at No. 2 Arizona: Monday, 9 p.m. ET
No. 24 Vanderbilt at No. 23 Tennessee: Saturday, 2 p.m. ET
No. 17 North Carolina at No. 1 Duke: Saturday, 6:30 p.m. ET
No. 8 Michigan State at No. 3 Michigan: Sunday, 5:30 p.m. ET