Can Louisville contend for a national title in Pat Kelsey’s second season?

CHARLOTTE, N.C. — Last offseason, when Louisville hired Pat Kelsey on the heels of the worst two-season stretch in program history, the immediate goal was simple: respectability.

“There were two tough years before we got here,” Kelsey said Wednesday at ACC Tipoff. “So we couldn’t do anything wrong, right?”

Which is why, even when Kelsey’s Cards stumbled out of the gate, going 6-5 with blowout losses to Tennessee and Ole Miss, there was optimism that the 50-year-old would quickly right the ship — which he did. From January on, Louisville’s defense ranked 14th nationally in adjusted defensive efficiency, per Bart Torvik, which was right in line with Duke (11th) and Florida (13th) … or half of the Final Four. What that looked like on the court? Seventeen wins in UL’s final 18 conference games, an ACC championship game appearance, and the program’s first NCAA Tournament berth since 2019.

That’s not just respectability.

It’s grounds for moving the goalposts a country mile.

“When you go around town now, it’s like, ‘Bring that banner,’” forward J’Vonne Hadley joked. “Last year it was like, ‘Get some wins.’ It’s a little bit different.”

It’s hard to blame Cards fans for the optimism. Not only did Kelsey show proof of concept his first year in town, but he followed that up with one of the most impressive offseasons of any program in the country.

That started with retaining a few key contributors, including Hadley — whose 7.3 rebounds per game led the team — and Kasean Pryor, arguably the Cards’ top talent prior to tearing his ACL in late November. (And don’t forget about Aly Khalifa, either, the former BYU big man and passing savant who redshirted last season while recovering from knee surgery.)

That’s a strong foundation, but Kelsey obviously needed more. And in a perfect example of modern roster construction, Louisville left no stone unturned.

Naturally, that meant turning to the high school ranks — and in Mikel Brown Jr., a top-10 prospect and projected NBA lottery pick, Kelsey landed the sort of high-profile recruit the program hadn’t in recent seasons. But Kelsey also followed the college basketball-wide trend of going international, signing 22-year-old German professional Sanandra Fru to bolster Louisville’s frontcourt; Fru has since emerged as one of the most buzzworthy foreign additions in the entire sport. And lastly, Kelsey emptied the Cards’ coffers in the transfer portal, landing a trio of wings — Ryan Conwell (Xavier), Adrian Wooley (Kennesaw State), and Isaac McKneely (Virginia) — who ranked among The Athletic’s 35 best-available transfers. All three shot above 41 percent from deep on over five attempts per game.

“We have a lot of weapons,” Conwell said. “They won’t be able to trap or deny all of us.”

It’s clear what Kelsey’s offensive game plan is, given both his history and how the Cards looked last season. Per CBB Analytics, Louisville took 75.4 percent of its shots either at the rim or from 3 last season, which was 16th-most amongst high-major teams. And the reason that number wasn’t higher? Well, because frankly, the Cards weren’t necessarily efficient with those perimeter looks. Of the 15 teams with a higher “rim + 3” attempt rate, only LSU — which went 14-18 and was one of two SEC teams to miss the NCAA Tournament — and Marquette shot worse than Louisville did.

But the offensive strategy itself? With the right talent, it clearly works. Five of the 15 teams ahead of Louisville made the Sweet 16 last season — including Duke and Florida, the latter of which won the national title.

And now, it certainly looks like Louisville has the requisite talent.

“We’re going to be able to score the ball,” Kelsey said. “I don’t think there’s any mistake about that.”

Kelsey’s defensive wrench-tightening midway through last season suggests he can configure a competent defense again, too, especially with the versatile pieces he’s assembled. James Scott, UL’s best (and only?) rim protector, may be gone, but in Fru and Pryor — whose block rate would’ve been top-10 in the ACC had he played all season — Kelsey has two other capable options. Then consider the general size Kelsey has along the perimeter, with 6-foot-3 guard Kobe Rogers as UL’s shortest rotation player, and the makings are there for a second straight stout defense.

The only real question, then?

How Kelsey handles Final Four expectations, especially in only his second season at the high-major level, and how he helps his players navigate the same.

“I don’t necessarily see it as pressure; I just feel like an expectation. Louisville’s rich history, Louisville’s rich culture — that’s what Louisville is,” Hadley said. “Louisville basketball is about winning. It’s bringing those banners, and I think that this year we really have a chance to do that.”

Louisville’s schedule — which Kelsey joked features the NBA’s Boston Celtics, Los Angeles Lakers, and Philadelphia 76ers — should make that apparent, or not, early on. The Cards host rival Kentucky the second week of the regular season, head to Arkansas for the ACC-SEC Challenge, play Indiana in Indianapolis, host Memphis, and then go to Tennessee… all before Christmas.

It’s the sort of early-season gauntlet that, done right, creates a season-long runway to the things Louisville believes is possible. But the flip side is also possible. Cracks that show, maybe, even with all the pieces and resources at Louisville’s disposal, the Cards aren’t quite there.

It all looks and sounds good on paper. Once the games start, though, none of that feel-good talk matters.

Only whether or not Louisville, for the first time in a decade, has the horses to win it all.

“We’re back to how it’s supposed to be at Louisville with those types of expectations. There’s big expectations on this team’s shoulders,” Kelsey said. “But if I’m doing my job and our guys are operating the way they’re supposed to, don’t give a crap what people say throughout the course of the season, you know? It’s just staying steady and consistent: through the ups, the downs, the goods, the bads.”