Thursday was a pretty good day for Slingshot. Not only did our statistical model get to enjoy 16 games over 12 hours, but it also got some stuff right. Like McNeese over Clemson. And Drake over Missouri. It suffered some setbacks, too — we’re looking at you, VCU and UCSD. But Slingshot isn’t one to dwell in the past. Instead, let’s turn its attention to Saturday’s second-round games that meet the Bracket Breakers’s upset qualification of at least a five-seed difference.
No. 4 Purdue Boilermakers vs. No. 12 McNeese Cowboys
Upset Chance: 29.6 percent
It wasn’t pretty. It wasn’t efficient. At times, it was downright ragged. But McNeese employed a tried-and-true underdog strategy on Thursday, one that claimed yet another victim in fifth-seeded Clemson. The Cowboys shot 4-for-19 from 3-point range and 11-of-22 from the foul line. But they grabbed 18 offensive rebounds and forced 13 turnovers while deflecting countless other passes and pushing Clemson out of its offensive comfort zone. The result: McNeese held Clemson to 13 first-half points, built a 24-point second-half lead, then (barely) held on as Clemson found a late offensive spark (aided by a slew of McNeese mistakes). And they did it with leading scorer Javohn Garcia hitting nary a field goal.
The Cowboys now move on to face Purdue, a program that knows a thing or five about being on the wrong side of upsets. The Boilermakers took out High Point on the shoulders of Trey Kaufman-Renn — the Panthers simply couldn’t match his size and skill inside. But McNeese is a far, far better defensive team: stronger, longer, quicker. The Cowboys’ speed on the perimeter should also help to limit Purdue’s open 3-point looks (the Boilers shoot 38.3 percent), provided they stay disciplined. And Purdue is only an average defensive rebounding team, so McNeese may be able to score off their own misses.
The game, then, should come down to two factors. Firstly, can McNeese shoot well enough to capitalize on their other strengths? And, secondly, what kind of whistles will we see? The Cowboys are extremely aggressive on defense, constantly reaching to strip the ball away from ball-handlers. They dare the refs to call fouls. If it’s a loose-called game, expect a flood of turnovers. If it’s tight, multiple Cowboys could foul out. Make no mistake, though: McNeese has a real chance to reach the Sweet 16.
No. 3 Texas Tech Red Raiders vs. No. 11 Drake Bulldogs
Upset Chance: 26.4 percent
While we were relaxing on our couch at Bracket Breakers Central, TruTV cut to an interview with Texas Tech coach Grant McCasland. And something deep in the recesses of our stats-saturated (stats-urated?) brains clicked.
McCasland came to Lubbock from North Texas, where he famously led the Mean Green to a 13-4 upset of Purdue in the first round back in 2021. That team combined a plodding pace with a disruptive defense that forced turnovers on 21 percent of opponents’ possessions. That’s an unusual marriage, as pressure defense is typically associated with a fast tempo. But now, four years later, he’s about to meet an underdog that features a more extreme — and better — version of that North Texas scheme: Drake
Of course, it all makes sense. McCasland is close friends with Drake coach Ben McCollum and tried to get him to join his staff in Lubbock after landing the job in 2023. Instead, he stayed at Division II Northwest Missouri State before jumping to the head job at Drake this year. The Bulldogs, fresh off an upset of Missouri, play at the nation’s slowest tempo, yet generate the 10th-highest turnover percentage (22.2 percent). They don’t run a full-court press or overplay the passing lanes. Instead, they switch every exchange, help quickly and effectively and wall up inside, forcing discombobulated offenses to drive into a crowd or to throw ill-advised passes. It’s beautiful to watch, and it’s their best route to an upset.
Not beautiful? Drake’s offense, which struggled to run anything effectively against Missouri and was fortunate to score at the end of the shot clock off several broken plays. That won’t cut it against a Texas Tech team that is better defensively than the Tigers were and also adds a strong dose of offensive rebounding (34.3 percent) to protect against poor shooting.
Drake’s pace and defensive commitment should keep the Bulldogs in the game, and our model also loves their underrated offensive rebounding (36 percent). That’s why Slingshot gives them a better than one-in-four shot of reaching the Sweet 16. But they’ll have to generate better looks on offense and shoot better than 12-of-24 at the line (their mark against Missouri) to beat a really good Texas Tech team — even if the Red Raiders don’t get Chance McMillian back from injury.
No. 2 Tennessee Volunteers vs. No. 7 UCLA Bruins
Upset Chance: 23.9 percent
Months ago, on our Underdogs show, we said that UCLA was a giant that played like a killer. Well, after losing four of their last eight regular-season games, the Bruins landed a 7-seed and now have a chance to pull off a big second-round upset, and they’re still pursuing the strategies we associate with smart underdogs. UCLA plays at the pace at which astronauts get rescued, they force turnovers and they hit the offensive boards. Better yet for the Bruins, slow longshots, like UCLA, have historically caused a lot of problems for favorites whose key talent is squelching opponents on the perimeter, like Tennessee. This is where we’d usually write about UCLA’s similarities to teams who play deliberately and intelligently, throw opponents off balance and shoot from long range when necessary.
All of that does describe the Bruins, and Slingshot’s cluster analysis does work in their favor. It’s just that UCLA’s advantages very rarely bring down an opponent in Tennessee’s class. Our model sees the Vols as the fifth-best team in the country, nearly 35 points per 100 possessions above average. They’re not just particularly excellent defensively but also, with powerful offensive rebounding, built to withstand attacks from underdogs. And the record of historically similar games is filled with strong favorites who refused to let somewhat less-strong longshots impose their style on the proceedings and instead took them to the cleaners. Think Tennessee itself over Texas last year, or Houston vs. Auburn in 2023. With the very top of the field so dominant this time around, second-round value will often lie with the top seeds.
No. 2 St. John’s Red Storm vs. No. 10 Arkansas Razorbacks
Upset Chance: 16.1 percent
It’s true that the Johnnies haven’t shot well this season (43.9 percent EFG%, ranking 232nd). But they have a top-60 offense anyway because they secure the ball well and maniacally grab their missed shots (ranking ninth in OR%). It’s also true they haven’t played a particularly strong schedule. Then again, one reason why several Big East teams, including Marquette and UConn, looked weaker than expected this season is because they were losing to St. John’s. Overall, the Red Storm’s four losses have come by a total of just 14 points. And after their wreckage of every opponent in their conference tournament and a beatdown of Nebraska Omaha, where they shot 55.6 percent (15-27) from inside and 37.6 percent (14-27) on 3s, it’s hard to say just how high the ceiling is for RJ Luis and company. But Tennessee in 2023, who beat Louisville and Duke in the tournament, is an excellent statistical comparison.
In contrast, Arkansas, flush with NIL cash and loaded with transfers but wracked by injuries all season long, is 6-11 against top-40 opponents this season vs. 15-2 against other teams. We’ll give the Razorbacks credit for forcing 16 turnovers in their first-round win over Kansas. But all too often recently, it’s been Arkansas who throws away the ball. John Calipari’s outfit has posted double-digit TOs in each of its past 10 games, stretching back more than a month. Arkansas ranks just 136th at forcing turnovers and is very weak on the offensive boards (ranking 244th). Slingshot sees little chance that kind of underdogging will hunt in the big city.
No. 1 Auburn Tigers vs. No. 9 Creighton Bluejays
Upset Chance: 15.6 percent
The Bluejays are a good team. But they aren’t as good as Auburn. That means, in the world of Bracket Breakers, they need to take calculated risks to close that gap. And therein lies the problem with this matchup: Creighton doesn’t play that way.
The Bluejays are fourth-worst in the country at forcing turnovers. They eschew offensive rebounds to get back on defense, resulting in their grabbing just 26.8 percent of available offensive boards. That leaves 3-point shooting as their one giant-killing weapon. They embrace that path to variance, taking 49 percent of their shots from deep. But Auburn excels at playing defense at the arc, allowing teams few looks (35 percent of attempts) and clamping down on the ones they do give up (29 percent shooting, allowed, fifth in the nation).
At 7-foot-1, Ryan Kalkbrenner always presents a matchup problem, but Auburn can throw multiple big bodies at him. And then he’ll have to deal with Johni Broome at the other end. Only two of the 10 most similar games in our model’s history ended in upsets, and this one doesn’t figure to join that group.
No. 1 Houston Cougars vs. No. 8 Gonzaga Bulldogs
Upset Chance: 11.9 percent
For months, Gonzaga seemed like the team most likely to enter the NCAA Tournament as what we call a “wounded assassin” — a big-time program that takes some hits and lands a double-digit seed yet still packs a serious punch. Then, the Zags whipped their conference opponents in February, beat Saint Mary’s for the WCC title and obliterated Georgia on Friday. Now, many fans and analysts are looking at this next matchup and seeing two programs with complementary strengths, great coaches and track records of always making the Sweet 16 and sensing a close fight ahead. And betting lines are giving the Bulldogs a greater than one-in-three chance to pull off a win.
Unfortunately for Gonzaga, two things can be true, even if they’re both unfashionable. The Bulldogs really were underappreciated for most of this season. They didn’t dominate non-conference opponents for long stretches, but, led by typically excellent shooting, they scored 124.7 adjusted points per 100 possessions, seventh-most in the nation. They’re No. 7 in our basic power rankings, exceptionally high for an 8-seed. But Houston is on a different level: No. 2 in our ratings, one of just three teams that are more than 40 points per 100 possession stronger than average, and with the country’s best defense. Here’s the key: the Cougars are more than 10 points per 100 possessions better than Gonzaga on defense, while the Zags have an advantage of less than 1 point per 100 possessions on offense.
Further, Houston is built to be an extremely strong overdog. They choke off perimeter shooting and force scads of turnovers. In the past, we’ve called favorites who share that statistical profile “Gambling Giants,” but the Cougars execute their stifling defense without adding much risk to their game. They limit inside shooting, too, allowing opponents to shoot just 44.1 percent on 2-pointers (ranking 2nd). They also protect the ball (ranking 24th in avoiding turnovers), grab offensive rebounds (ranking 11th) and shoot 3s very judiciously (only 34.7 percent of attempts, but 39.6 percent 3P%). Their offense sometimes looks unimpressive because they play at a very slow pace, but it’s the 10th most efficient in the country.
Gonzaga, meanwhile, is just not cast well as a killer: They’re meh at grabbing missed shots and forcing turnovers, and they launch very few bombs (ranking 314th in 3PA/FGA). Underdogs won just two of the 10 most similar games to this meeting in our database, which includes a few losses to recent Houston squads. UAB in 2022, though not as good as Gonzaga this year, was stylistically similar, and the Cougars just strangled them.
Gonzaga, which suffered a string of close and overtime losses this season, is still 337th in the NCAA in KenPom.com’s Luck Rankings. Slingshot thinks that conclusion applies not just to how the Bulldogs have converted points to wins but to the matchup they’re now facing.
(Photo: Eric Canha/Imagn Images; Illustration: Will Tullos, The Athletic)
