The men’s college basketball power conference coaching carousel started spinning early this season, with Virginia opening up in October before the games even started. Jim Larranaga (Miami) and Leonard Hamilton (Florida State) ultimately followed Tony Bennett in opting to retire, and Utah fired Craig Smith before the season concluded.
Three of those four positions have already been filled, with Virginia’s vacancy the only one remaining. The carousel should quicken this week with seasons ending for a bevy of other hot seat candidates.
Below is a guide on who to monitor during championship week. An early loss — or simply a run that falls short of an NC State-esque miracle rally — could spell doom for any of these names. We’ll start with arguably the hottest seat in the country, which resides on the Main Line in Philadelphia.
Villanova’s Kyle Neptune — vs. Seton Hall
9 p.m. ET Wednesday (Peacock)
The Wildcats open Big East tournament play with the nightcap at Madison Square Garden on Wednesday, taking on cellar dweller Seton Hall in the first round. A loss would surely doom Neptune, but his days may be numbered no matter what happens in New York City this week.
Neptune took over for Jay Wright at a program that had been to every NCAA Tournament of the past decade and had won 20-plus games in all of those campaigns not impacted by the pandemic. In that span, Villanova was a No. 1 or No. 2 seed six times.
Barring a stunning “four wins in four nights” rampage to the Big East tournament final, Neptune will go 0 for 3 on even making it to March Madness. He is 53-46 overall and 31-29 in the Big East, disappointingly pedestrian numbers for a program with much higher aspirations.
Put more simply: The administration handed Neptune the keys to a Ferrari. He immediately crashed the car into a cement wall, derailing the incredible momentum Wright had built.
It has not been for lack of talent. Villanova has done well on the recruiting trail and in the transfer portal, and the Wildcats retained Eric Dixon last offseason, who ended up being the nation’s leading scorer. Those successes hint at sufficient name, image and likeness investment to compete, but it is tough to continue to ask supporters for money without any on-court results to show for it.
Texas’ Rodney Terry — vs. Vanderbilt
3:30 p.m. ET Wednesday (SEC Network)
Texas has slid down the bubble ladder, going just 3-8 over the last six weeks. A season-finale home loss to Oklahoma was particularly harmful, as it helped a bubble rival pick up a massive Q1 road win.
The Longhorns need a long run through the SEC tournament to get back on the right side of the cut line. That starts against Vanderbilt, which Texas lost to in the teams’ only regular-season meeting on Feb. 8. Of course, there is no guarantee that Terry retains the gig even if Texas sneaks into the NCAA Tournament.
Terry’s grip on the job has always been tenuous. He took over as interim boss in December 2022 after Chris Beard was fired, and it was widely assumed he was simply caretaking the job until a national search could happen after that season concluded.
Instead, Terry led the Longhorns to 29 wins and an Elite Eight appearance, compelling the administration to give him a full-time shot. Without a Beard-assembled core, the results have tapered off, and a missed NCAA Tournament in Texas’ first season in the SEC could be the impetus to finally conduct that national search.
Arizona State’s Bobby Hurley — vs. Kansas State
7 p.m. ET Tuesday (ESPN+)
This year was supposed to be different for Hurley. The Sun Devils received preseason hype due to an infusion of more NIL money, enabling Hurley to make huge recruiting wins with Joson Sanon and Jayden Quaintance. Portal additions BJ Freeman, Basheer Jihad and Alston Mason were extremely productive at their prior stops.
To Hurley’s credit, ASU did start strong, competing with Gonzaga in Spokane before beating New Mexico and Saint Mary’s in Palm Springs. On the morning of Jan. 8, ASU was 10-3 overall (1-1 in the Big 12), and the Sun Devils led at halftime at Kansas.
Unfortunately, the wheels came off in the second half at Phog Allen Fieldhouse, and that started a downward spiral for the Sun Devils. They only won three more games en route to a 4-16 finish in conference play. Injuries and player availability hampered ASU down the stretch, but the damage had already been done. This season will mark the fourth year in the past five in which Arizona State missed the NCAA Tournament.
Curiously, all three of Hurley’s NCAA bids sent him to Dayton for the First Four. Though the Sun Devils won twice there, they never managed to win a Round of 64 game.
With the conference shift, plus losing overall records in four of the last five seasons, a change in the desert seems likely.
Bobby Hurley’s Sun Devils finished an extremely underwhelming 4-16 in conference play. (Kevin C. Cox / Getty Images)
Iowa’s Fran McCaffery — vs. Ohio State
6 p.m. ET Wednesday (Peacock)
Iowa snuck into the final spot in the Big Ten tournament by winning at Nebraska on the final Sunday of the regular season. That may have kept McCaffery employed for a few extra days, as this pairing could be headed for a divorce.
McCaffery has been in Iowa City since the 2010-11 season, and though he has made eight NCAA Tournaments in that span (counting 2020), he has never made the Sweet 16. Without the upside of a deep run, the McCaffery tenure has grown stale, especially now that the Hawkeyes will miss the tournament in consecutive years.
The Hawkeyes are 35-30 overall, 17-23 in the Big Ten over the last two seasons combined, which has contributed to McCaffery’s warmed-up seat.
Another contributing factor is the possibility of a home run candidate in the Hawkeyes’ backyard. Drake coach Ben McCollum, which just led the Bulldogs to a Missouri Valley championship in Year 1, is an Iowa native, and he has won everywhere he’s been in his coaching career. Would the allure of hiring McCollum contribute to the Iowa administration making a move?
Oklahoma’s Porter Moser — vs. Georgia
9:30 p.m. ET Wednesday (SEC Network)
Moser is a tricky name to put on this list. While the other four coaches might receive their walking papers as soon as they lose in the conference tournament, Moser will almost certainly be employed through Selection Sunday. Even with a loss to Georgia on Wednesday, the Sooners are going to be squarely on the bubble. OU will not move on with an at-large bid still potentially on the table.
Whether that will be enough to keep Moser around after the postseason is the more relevant question. Oklahoma has yet to make the NCAA Tournament during his tenure, so sneaking into the field once only to exit meekly may not placate those who want to see a change.
In all four years of his tenure, Oklahoma has started strong in the nonconference, only to fade disappointingly in league play. He has never finished better than 8-10 in conference play while in Norman. The move to the SEC this year did not halt that trend, as OU went undefeated in nonconference but just 6-12 in conference (albeit an extremely loaded SEC).
(Top photo of Kyle Neptune: Kayla Wolf / Getty Images)
