College basketball thoughts: Is Nebraska destined to be next incredible turnaround?

Welcome, football fans who are finally pivoting to college hoops. Come on in. The water’s fine.

To ease you in, this week’s 12 thoughts start in a familiar place:

Is there a college basketball equivalent of Indiana football?

1. You’ve almost certainly heard by now, but when Curt Cignetti arrived in November 2023 in Bloomington, he inherited the losingest major program in college football history. Prior to his arrival — and this season’s stunning run to the national title — IU had won three postseason games, ever. That sordid history is what makes Indiana football one of the best stories in American sports history.

So, who’s the hoops equivalent? And is it realistic for any basketball program to dream of a Cignetti-like moonshot? You tell me, after a scan of the 10 losingest high-major hoops programs:

*NCAA Tournament appearances of the modern era, dating back to 1985.

2. That only two high-major programs are still under .500 historically was surprising, but the list is a lot of schools you might expect. Chris Collins made history in 2017 by guiding the Wildcats to their first ever NCAA Tournament berth and win, but now Northwestern is back to the Big Ten cellar. Rutgers is more known for bombing with two top-five NBA Draft picks (Dylan Harper Jr. and Ace Bailey) than anything it’s accomplished in recent memory. And Georgia and TCU haven’t won conference titles since before this author was born.

Baylor is the outlier of all outliers. Scott Drew won it all with transfers before it was cool, with multiple members of his 2021 bubble championship team sitting out a year before leading the Bears to the promised land. But even Baylor’s success hasn’t insulated the program from slippage; BU hasn’t advanced past the round of 32 since cutting down the nets and sits on the NCAA Tournament bubble at 11-7 and 1-5 in the Big 12.

But the most interesting part about that list?

3. Half of the schools have gone as far as they ever have in the NCAA Tournament since the advent of the transfer portal and NIL in the summer of 2021.

That, just like IU’s rise in football, signifies how different the playing field is. Hire the right coach, add the necessary resources to be competitive — and with one strong transfer portal class, voila. You, too, can build a contender overnight (or at least a team far better than the program’s historic standing).

4. So on that list, which school is most likely to be college hoops’ version of Indiana? Baylor and Iowa State — by virtue of two Sweet 16s in three seasons and this year’s 17-2 start — are disqualified. There’s one overwhelming choice: The only high-major program that has never won an NCAA Tournament game.

Hello, Nebraska.

The No. 7 Cornhuskers, after Wednesday night’s win over Washington, are 19-0 — the best start in program history — and one of three undefeated teams left in Division I, alongside No. 1 Arizona and No. 25 Miami of Ohio. And while Fred Hoiberg’s team hasn’t exactly played the most challenging schedule, Nebrasketball has two ranked wins (over No. 10 Michigan State and No. 11 Illinois) en route to first place in the Big Ten.

5. Hoiberg didn’t bring any players from the Chicago Bulls when he took over as head coach in 2020 — although maybe he should’ve tried! But he has instead wisely mined the transfer portal.

Four of the Huskers’ top six leading scorers are transfers: Pryce Sandfort (Iowa), Rienk Mast (Bradley), Berke Buyuktuncel (UCLA) and Jamarques Lawrence (Rhode Island). Lawrence boomeranged back to Lincoln after starting his career with Nebraska. Then you have a key freshman, sixth man Braden Frager, and the coach’s son, Sam, who does a little bit of everything.

Sandfort was a borderline top-100, four-star recruit out of high school, and Buyuktuncel was a highly sought-after international player. But just like Cignetti’s Indiana, this isn’t a roster full of five-star talent. It’s one that plays together, the way Hoiberg wants it to, and finds ways to win no matter who it’s up against.

I won’t go so far as to predict Nebraska wins the national title this season — especially in a single-elimination tournament in which the best team doesn’t always win — but I do believe the Huskers can win games, plural, in the Big Dance for the first time.

6. You know who else is capable of doing that? The defending national champions.

Don’t look now, but since Christmas, Florida has the fourth-best net rating in the sport, per Bart Torvik, fueled by the nation’s No. 1 offense over that stretch. (The three teams ahead of UF: Houston, Texas Tech and Virginia.)

Since a baffling loss at Missouri right after the new year, Todd Golden’s Gators have won five straight, beating three ranked foes — Georgia, Tennessee and Vanderbilt — in the process. Including Tuesday’s 79-61 win over LSU, Florida is averaging 91.2 points per game over its past five.

So what changed? Florida’s shooting has been marginally better, but not much; the Gators are still making only 29.5 percent of their 3s since Christmas. Golden has mitigated UF’s shooting woes by balancing the numbers elsewhere. On the offensive glass, namely.

Since Christmas, Florida is gobbling up an absurd 44.4 percent of available offensive rebounds, best in the nation. No surprise, then, that UF leads the nation in second-chance points with 17.5 per game, per CBB Analytics. And there’s one man in particular leading the Gators’ rebound. (Pun intended.)

7. Rueben Chinyelu was an every-game starter on Florida’s title team, but mostly served as a rebounding force and screener for the Gators’ dominant guards. He averaged 5.3 points and seven rebounds per game in last year’s NCAA Tournament.

But during UF’s current winning streak, Chinyelu has played like a man possessed. He’s averaging 16.2 points and 12.6 rebounds per game over that stretch — double his season-long averages last year — while making two-thirds of his shots. That includes his first career 20-point game, against Vanderbilt, and his second 20-rebound game this season, against LSU.

At 6 feet 10 and 265 pounds, Chinyelu can score on dump-offs at the rim, putback tips, alley-oops and via his rapidly-improving dropstep. But there’s no more lethal shot in Chinyelu’s bag than his hook shot over his left shoulder. Thirteen of Chinyelu’s 32 made shots over the past five games (40.6 percent) have been that hook, per Synergy, not to mention several foul calls because of it.

And increasingly, Chinyelu’s becoming comfortable taking those shots on the move, too. (Familiar spacing, huh?)

That’s a scary proposition for the rest of the SEC, and the nation. KenPom now projects Florida to win the SEC by multiple games.

8. The Athletic’s midseason All-America team dropped this week, which means it’s also #SnubSZN. I was surprised that Houston’s Kingston Flemings, whom I voted for, didn’t make either team, but was more shocked at a few players not earning any votes:

• Darius Acuff Jr., freshman guard, Arkansas: John Calipari’s latest freshman sensation is averaging 19.6 points, 6.2 assists and 2.9 rebounds per game while shooting 41 percent from 3 and 80.5 percent from the free-throw line.

• Christian Anderson, sophomore guard, Texas Tech: The only player in the nation averaging at least 20 points and seven assists per game, he’s been at his best in the Red Raiders’ biggest games, against Duke and BYU. He’s also one of just eight high-major players shooting above 45 percent from 3 on at least five attempts per game.

• Thomas Haugh, junior forward, Florida: He’s one of just 14 high-major players averaging at least 16 points, five rebounds and a steal per game. Plus, he’s been the key to the Gators’ jumbo-sized lineups.

• Graham Ike, graduate forward, Gonzaga: At 18.1 points, 8.8 rebounds and 2.7 assists per game, he is one of the most statistically dominant bigs in the nation. And with fellow frontcourt starter Braden Huff out for the foreseeable future, Ike’s numbers might spike even more.

Surely I’m forgetting a few more who our loyal commenters will quickly remind me of.

9. Could Kansas freshman Darryn Peterson also crack that list by season’s end? Absolutely — if he can ever finish a game. But while Peterson’s status was the story of the first half of KU’s season, there are bigger concerns in Lawrence.

On Monday, Kansas coach Bill Self was hospitalized “out of an abundance of caution,” the university said, receiving IV fluids at Lawrence Memorial Hospital. That’s after the 63-year-old had two stents inserted last July when he “felt unwell and experienced some concerning symptoms,” and after he previously missed the 2023 Big 12 and NCAA Tournament with a heart condition.

10. Only the two-time national title winner knows how long he wants to continue coaching through these setbacks. The industry-wide sentiment is that with KU recruiting Tyran Stokes — the No. 1 prospect in the 2026 class — as hard as it is, Self wants at least one more go-round. At least, being the key phrase.

11. It goes without saying that when Self retires, it will be the sort of seismic decision that reshapes the landscape of college basketball. Kansas is, at worst, a top-five job in the sport. One of the Cadillacs of college hoops, rich in history, resources and brand-name recognition. Every coach outside of Dan Hurley, Jon Scheyer, Hubert Davis and Mark Pope would jump at the idea of even being considered for Self’s replacement.

Assistant Jacques Vaughn — one of the best players in KU history — served as acting head coach for the Jayhawks’ 75-69 win Tuesday at Colorado. (Self did not travel, but thankfully said in a statement that he is “feeling much better.”) Self previously told The Athletic that he is “not interested in thinking or talking about a succession plan.” But as a two-time NBA head coach, not to mention a Jayhawks legend, Vaughn would have to be in the mix.

12. As for external candidates, take your pick. Industry chatter suggests that Florida’s Todd Golden or Alabama’s Nate Oats would be at the top of KU’s list (although Kansas might have competition for Oats if the North Carolina job surprisingly opens).

Like when John Calipari left Kentucky for Arkansas in the spring of 2024, the Kansas job opening is the sort of vacancy that spins the coaching carousel into overdrive.

As fans of college basketball, though, let’s hope Self’s health enables him to end his career on his own terms.