With Selection Sunday fast approaching, bubble teams are scrambling to finish their homework. The final Saturday in February put both opportunity and catastrophe on the menu for teams near the cutline. The margins are thinner, and every result can reverberate all the way to Selection Sunday.
No team is feeling the pressure of the bubble more than Auburn. The Tigers have played a wildly difficult schedule — the toughest in the country per NET ranking — but at some point, they need to win games. A harmful home 85-79 loss to 12-17 Ole Miss dropped Steven Pearl’s team to 15-14 overall, and the Tigers are now in serious danger of following up a Final Four trip by missing the NCAA Tournament entirely.
Auburn is the perfect representative of the perils of the bubble. The Tigers have lost a bevy of close games, and though predictive metrics like KenPom paint the picture of a postseason participant, the record simply is not good enough. Auburn’s case is not closed yet, with a home game against LSU and a visit to Alabama in the final week, but the margins have narrowed to a frightening extent.
On a day with 143 Division I vs. Division I games, the bubble had plenty of activity. Let’s take a look at the rest of the results:
Bubble winners
After thrashing Mississippi State on the road 88-64, Missouri can bank on an NCAA Tournament bid. They are now above .500 against the top two quadrants, with multiple big wins (at Kentucky, vs. Florida, vs. Tennessee) and zero bad losses. Credit to coach Dennis Gates’ squad for finding a new level in the SEC after an uninspiring showing in non-league play.
Fellow SEC squad Texas snagged a vital road win as well, knocking off Texas A&M after losing to their in-state rivals at home earlier this year. The Longhorns are likely safe for now, though a tricky final week provides some downside.
Mountain West bubblers San Diego State and New Mexico squared off in Albuquerque in front of a national CBS audience, and just like their first meeting in mid-January, the two teams went back and forth all game. A frenetic final minute included a huge 3 from the Lobos’ Luke Haupt and multiple near turnovers by UNM, but the Lobos squeaked out a split in the season series with an 81-76 victory. Both teams remain squarely on the bubble with everything to play for in the season’s final week.
Cincinnati dominated a head-to-head bubble battle against Oklahoma State, 91-68, to stay on the outer reaches of tournament consideration. The Bearcats can at least squint and see a path for a late-season surge towards the field. The Cowboys, meanwhile, are now 5-11 in the Big 12, a record likely bad enough to wash out big home wins over Texas A&M, UCF and BYU.
In the “simply took care of business” category, VCU easily dispatched Fordham at home, 82-63, to stay in range of the cutline. Similarly, Santa Clara smoked Oregon State, 93-72. Both teams have work to do at their respective conference tournaments.
Back in the Big 12, TCU avoided a bad loss with a 77-68 win at Kansas State and have improbably climbed to relative safety after a shaky start to the season. West Virginia took down BYU 79-71, keeping the Mountaineers’ hopes alive, though Ross Hodge’s team has plenty more work left to do.
Teams that likely locked in bids on Saturday include Clemson, Miami (Fla.) and Kentucky, all of whom won at home. The Tigers can exhale somewhat after knocking off Louisville, 80-75, to snap a four-game losing streak, while the Hurricanes obliterated Boston College, 76-54. Kentucky’s season has been a roller coaster, but at 19-10 (10-6 in the SEC), the Wildcats’ 91-77 victory over Vanderbilt should seal the deal. — Jim Root
Bubble losers
The ACC has been much improved this year, but bubble hopeful Cal took a shattering loss on Saturday. Following a three-game winning streak that had the Golden Bears in range of the field, they were non-competitive at home in a Q3 loss to Pitt, 72-56. Their remaining schedule only has “can’t lose” games (at Georgia Tech, at Wake Forest), so the Bears will have to make a statement at the ACC Tournament.
Seton Hall nearly had a huge win at UConn, one that might have vaulted the Pirates and their tenacious defense back into the field, but a frustrating final 53 seconds left Shaheen Holloway’s team just short in a 71-67 loss. The Hall will have to win out — at Xavier, vs. St. John’s — and possibly add a little sweetener in the Big East tournament.
UCLA followed a banner week of home wins over Illinois and USC with a disappointing 78-73 loss at Minnesota, made worse by the fact that the Gophers are massively shorthanded due to injury; only six players saw the court and just four tallied a point. Mick Cronin’s Bruins now have to head right back home to L.A. and host Nebraska, who is already in the area after playing at USC on Saturday.
USC had a huge opportunity hosting Nebraska, but the Trojans wilted down the stretch in an 82-67 loss. Similarly, Virginia Tech battled for 20 minutes in Chapel Hill, but the Hokies ultimately lost, 89-82. The Trojans and Hokies started the day outside the field and remain there now.
Further up the S-Curve, Iowa and NC State are not yet in bubble trouble, but they dropped extremely disappointing road games at sub-.500 teams Penn State and Notre Dame, respectively. — Jim Root
Todd Golden, John Calipari get matching technicals in blowout
No. 7 Florida wasted little time draining the on-court drama from its prime-time showdown with No. 20 Arkansas, taking a 19-point halftime lead en route to a 111-77 blowout win to clinch at least a share of the SEC regular-season title. But the second half included some sideline fireworks, too, as Gators coach Todd Golden and Razorbacks coach John Calipari were assessed dueling technical fouls for exchanging words after a flagrant foul called on Florida big man Rueben Chinyelu.
Florida head coach Todd Golden and Arkansas head coach John Calipari were yelling at each other and both got technical fouls! 😳 pic.twitter.com/EMu9q8GxSN
— Chris Beasmore (@CBeasmoreSports) March 1, 2026
“Both of us were just coaching our team,” Golden said. “He’s obviously a Hall of Fame head coach, an incredible coach, and we’re just out there competing. I don’t think either of us thought twice about it after it happened, and it was just a little part of the game tonight.”
“Who knows?” Calipari said when asked what happened. “I was just being … We’re both competitors. He’s done a great job. I can tell you, he outcoached me today.”
The 34-point loss tied for the largest margin of defeat in Calipari’s head coaching career, matching his 118-84 loss to Duke in November 2018 while with Kentucky.
Arizona looks like a 1-seed
On Friday night, Michigan dominated. On Saturday morning, Duke took over. Then later on Saturday afternoon, Arizona showed it’s still a part of that elite tier in college basketball.
With star freshman Koa Peat back in the lineup, the second-ranked Wildcats got revenge on No. 14 Kansas in a 84-61 win, 19 days after the Jayhawks gave them their first loss of the season.
It was vintage Arizona, dominating the glass (14 offensive rebounds), getting to the free-throw line (where the Wildcats went 30 of 34) and making it nearly impossible to score at the rim. Kansas shot just 15 of 45 inside the 3-point arc and made only 3 of 10 layups.
Arizona center Motiejus Krivas controlled the paint with his rim protection and dominated on both ends, holding Kansas center Flory Bidunga to two points on 1-of-5 shooting while putting up 13 points, 10 rebounds and two blocks.
Arizona led by as many as 18 early, but Kansas started to make it a game by chipping away at the end of the half, then started the second half hot behind the shotmaking of Darryn Peterson. The Jayhawks cut it to two with a Melvin Council Jr. basket just before the under-12 timeout in the second half, only to have Arizona rip off a 16-0 run.
Arizona freshman guard Brayden Burries had one of his most complete games with 20 points, 12 rebounds and five assists. Peat, who had missed the previous three games with a lower leg muscle strain he suffered in the loss to Texas Tech, put up a solid 12 points, seven boards and five assists.
On the bright side for Kansas, this was the third straight game Peterson has not shown any signs of cramping, and the star freshman was as aggressive as he’s been all season. He scored 24 points on 8-of-21 shooting and had three assists.
With the win, Arizona (27-2, 14-2 Big 12) locked up at least a share of the Big 12 title and joined Michigan and Duke as heavy favorites to end up as a No. 1 seed. — CJ Moore
Karaban sparks UConn comeback on Senior Day
On the same day he had his name hung in the rafters among the Huskies of Honor, UConn’s Alex Karaban delivered a memorable Senior Day performance in his final home game.
Karaban scored eight of his game-high 23 points down the stretch in No. 6 UConn’s 71-67 comeback win over Seton Hall. Trailing by eight with less than nine minutes remaining, Karaban connected on back-to-back 3-pointers as part of a 10-0 go-ahead run in a game that featured 18 lead changes. The 6-foot-8 forward also drilled a pair of late free throws to extend UConn’s margin, finishing 8 of 11 from the field and 5 of 6 from deep.
AK FORTHREEEE pic.twitter.com/6o4Yus1MSr
— UConn Men’s Basketball (@UConnMBB) February 28, 2026
The Huskies (27-3, 17-2) weathered a hot-shooting start to the second half by Seton Hall to remain atop the Big East standings, with a chance to secure at least a share of the conference title next Saturday at Marquette. The Pirates’ (19-10, 9-9) bubble chances took a tough blow with the loss, which featured an awkward no-call on a missed game-tying 3-point attempt by Adam Clark in the final seconds.
“Thank God we got this win tonight,” Karaban told the home crowd after the win, “because I could not leave with a loss in my last game.”
Already the winningest player in the history of UConn men’s basketball, Karaban became the 25th to be inducted into the Huskies of Honor and first as an active player during an emotional pregame ceremony. The four-year starter is a two-time national champion, sits second all-time behind Shabazz Napier in games and minutes played and moved into the program’s top 10 in total points on Saturday.
“To see him crying like a baby coming out, I just lost it right there when I saw it,” UConn coach Dan Hurley said afterward. “He’s one of the greatest players that’s worn the uniform.”
Dan Hurley on Alex Karaban:
“To see him crying like a baby coming out, I just lost it right there when I saw it. He’s one of the greatest players that’s worn the uniform… Who’s done more while they wore the uniform than this guy?” pic.twitter.com/gEbXlD9c7N
— The Field of 68 (@TheFieldOf68) February 28, 2026
The victory keeps the Huskies in the mix for a No. 1 seed on Selection Sunday. — Justin Williams
Texas Tech holds off Hilton Magic without Toppin
Texas Tech muscling out a win over No. 4 Iowa State — in the hornet nest of Hilton Coliseum, without injured star JT Toppin — was not the conventional wisdom entering Saturday. But the No. 16 Red Raiders held on for an 82-73 road victory, their third straight win without the reigning Big 12 Player of the Year and fourth this season over a top-10 opponent. It was the first home loss of the season for Iowa State, which is now 48-3 at Hilton over the past three seasons.
Tech won by double-digits over Kansas State and Cincinnati since Toppin suffered a torn ACL on Feb. 17, but Saturday proved that what was considered a Final Four-caliber team with Toppin on the floor still has the potential to make a deep tournament run without him.
It was a collective effort for the Red Raiders (22-7, 12-4), who led by as many as 20, with six players scoring in double figures. Point guard Christian Anderson had 14 points while saddled with foul trouble, and Luke Bamgboye — starting in place of Toppin — had 13 points and two massive blocks down the stretch but fouled out with just under 4 minutes left. The supporting cast stepped up, led by sharpshooting transfer Donovan Atwell, who had 18 points thanks to a 6-of-10 effort from 3-point range, and freshman Jaylen Petty, who had nine of his 12 points in the second half.
Tech shot 58 percent from the floor and 14 for 29 from deep, holding Iowa State (24-5, 11-5) to 39 percent overall and 33 percent from beyond the arc. Despite a 27 to 11 advantage in free throw attempts by ISU and a couple of late pushes to cut the deficit to six, the Red Raiders answered with clutch buckets and stops.
Texas Tech’s ceiling is lower without Toppin, who was averaging 21.8 points and 10.8 rebounds, and it’s a miniscule sample size, but the Red Raiders have the best adjusted offensive efficiency in the country through its three games since the injury, according to Bart Torvik. Hope is not lost. — Justin Williams
Ament injured in Tennessee loss
It was a rough day for Tennessee, which blew a 13-point second-half lead in a 71-69 home loss to No. 17 Alabama. But the bigger concern could be the health of standout freshman Nate Ament, who missed much of the game with a right leg injury.
Ament had his leg pinned awkwardly while fighting for a loose ball in the first half. He returned briefly to start the second half, but exited again after scoring his only two points of the game, finishing with just 11 minutes of action. He did return to the bench by the end of the game.
Whew buddy, Tennessee’s Nate Ament was rolled up on, and plenty of folks were holding their breath.
He got up and went into the hallway. pic.twitter.com/F7NAAAnUnH
— Trey Wallace (@TreyWallace) February 28, 2026
“I think he hurt the knee a little bit, but he did tweak the foot he had turned at Missouri, that ankle,” Tennessee coach Rick Barnes said after the game. “He tried, but if he can’t go, he can’t go because there’s no one tougher than him.”
Alabama won on a Labaron Philon turnaround jumper with 24 seconds remaining. — Justin Williams
