Now that March is in full swing, teams are either wrapping up their regular-season schedule or preparing for conference tournaments.
For those on ESPN bracketologist Joe Lunardi’s “Last Four In” as of Tuesday, the pressure is on each of them to take care of business or risk dropping out of the NCAA Tournament field altogether.
With Selection Sunday quickly approaching, here are four teams squarely on the bubble and where their best shot lies to secure their spot in the 68-team field.
Unlike the other teams on this list, Santa Clara has already concluded its regular-season schedule and is entering the West Coast Conference Tournament as the No. 3 seed, behind No. 12 Gonzaga (28-3, 16-2 WCC) and No. 21 Saint Mary’s (27-4, 16-2 WCC).
With a BPI of 48, which ranks third of the four teams on the bubble, Santa Clara may have to win the WCC Tournament to make the Big Dance. When you consider the unpredictability of conference tournaments and the potential for bid stealers, it is even more unlikely that the Broncos make the NCAA Tournament. They do, however, have a ranking of 37 from KenPom, which could be beneficial if it comes down to resume.
The Buckeyes have been inconsistent all season, but a surprise 82-74 win over then-No. 8 Purdue on Sunday was exactly what they needed to improve their outlook.
Ohio State will now look to win consecutive games for the first time since Jan. 20 when it faces Penn State (12-17, 3-15 Big Ten) on Wednesday. If it can avoid the upset, a meeting with fellow bubble team Indiana on Saturday could determine the Buckeyes’ fate before the Big Ten Tournament even begins.
The Lobos have a BPI of 54 and are ranked 46th by KenPom, both of which are the worst of any of the “Last Four In” teams. While both metrics alone should not determine who gets in and who does not, that is not a good starting point if you are New Mexico.
A road trip to Mountain West-leading Utah State (24-5, 14-4 MWC) — a projected seven-seed from Lunardi — on Saturday is a major opportunity for New Mexico to strengthen its resume. If it loses that one, the pressure will be on it to win the conference tournament to eliminate any doubt.
Indiana Hoosiers (17-12, 8-10 Big Ten)
Much like Big Ten rival Ohio State, Indiana has a win over a ranked Purdue team this season, but has left a lot of other opportunities on the table. Four straight losses — three of which were against ranked opponents — are not the stretch you want to put together this late in the season.
The Hoosiers play their final home game against a Minnesota team that is no stranger to pulling off upsets this season before facing Ohio State. A win over the Buckeyes would certainly help, but given the precarious situation Indiana finds itself in amid the losing streak, that may not be enough unless it puts a run together in the Big Ten Tournament.
