I’ve been on a mission the last month to find some newcomers who, based on their summer performances, are going to be better than expected.
On Wednesday, it was the freshmen. Now it’s time for the transfers.
Coaches helped provide insights for this mix, and I also based some on a coach’s historical success developing transfers.
These five all made our top 100 transfers list, but based on what their coaches have said, they’re good bets to play above their rankings.
Aday Mara, Michigan
Two years ago, Aday Mara was thought to be a one-and-done borderline lottery pick. That August, Sam Vecenie had him slotted at 15 in his mock draft and called Mara “a basketball savant.”
“He has a case as being one of the best passers in this class,” Vecenie wrote at the time. “He’s a creative dime-thrower who uses his length and vision to find cutters and kickouts all over the place, and also throws touchdown passes in transition.”
Mara struggled to get consistent minutes in two years at UCLA, but he had some moments last year where he started to make an impact. During a three-game stretch in January when his minutes started to increase, he averaged 15.3 points, 7.7 boards and 4.0 blocks. His playing time was more consistent from there, but he never played more than 24 minutes the rest of the season, even though Mara would have had the highest block rate (17.3) in college basketball had he played enough minutes to qualify at KenPom and was efficient offensively, shooting 59 percent from the field. Mara also had the second-best on-off numbers among UCLA’s bigs behind Eric Dailey, per CBB Analytics.
Now Mara heads to play for a coach whose upward career trajectory was somewhat tied to another foreign big in Vladislav Goldin, who played only 47 minutes at Texas Tech as a freshman, transferred to Florida Atlantic and helped Dusty May make a Final Four, then followed May to Michigan, where Goldin was a first-team All-Big Ten performer last year.
Mara and Goldin are different types of players, but if May can empower Mara with confidence, maybe he’ll see the same results.
Looking at the roster, you could argue that Mara will struggle to see consistent time again, but a year ago, May took the risk of starting two 7-footers, and the Danny Wolf-Goldin front court ended up one of the best in the country. May could take it a step further this year. Michigan has a crowded front court — two top-10 transfers in Yaxel Lendeborg and Morez Johnson along with the return of Will Tschetter — but Lendeborg is skilled enough that it’s conceivable May could start Mara alongside the two other transfers.
“He’s just so unique that he’s a really active lob threat from the dunker spot or off pick and roll,” May said of Mara. “He’s also elite passing from the elbows and the high post.”
May says Mara has a tendency to float on the perimeter and he’s really good there, but he wants to use him more around the rim because he’s most impactful behind the defense. What should help his comfort level there is the added weight and strength he’s gained this summer. May reports that Mara added 4.5 pounds in his first month on campus.
“I don’t know if he was always in love with the weight room, but he was obsessed with working on his body and getting stronger,” May said. “He had a really, really productive summer.”
Kevin Overton, Auburn
Auburn returns only one rotation player from a year ago in Tahaad Pettiford, so Auburn could have a different look and feel than a season ago. But when you have a season as dominant as Auburn just had, it’s tempting to try to replicate it in some ways. The Tigers had great success with putting Pettiford in ball screens, and Bruce Pearl is likely to increase his usage there. Johni Broome was the hub of the offense, and Pearl landed another very gifted lefty scorer to play that spot in Central Florida transfer Keyshawn Hall.
Another role that would be smart to try to replicate is the role of Miles Kelly. The newcomer best equipped to be Kelly — or at least Kelly lite — is Texas Tech transfer Kevin Overton, who, like everyone else on this list, had a really good summer.
When I projected Auburn’s lineup earlier this summer, I had Division II transfer Elyjah Freeman as a starter and Overton as the first off the bench. I’d probably flip those two now. It sounds like Overton is more of a sure thing this year, while Pearl says Freeman’s upside is the highest on the roster. “He’s going to be in the NBA,” Pearl said. “It’s probably going to be two years, but he’s got great upside.”
Overton transferred a year ago from Drake to Texas Tech, and last season was a transition year to the high-major level. Overton was the seventh man for the Red Raiders, and when he played with confidence, he had his moments where he could take over games scoring the ball. And when he got starter minutes, he produced like one. In 13 games when he played 27-plus minutes, he averaged 13.3 points per game. His offense is what pops, but Pearl mentions his defense before anything else.
“The way they’re coached, how hard they play, how physical they are, you know you’re bringing in somebody that instantly is gonna make us better on the defensive end,” Pearl said. “He’s gonna make us tougher without question because he’s physical. He’s tough.”
Texas Tech was at its best defensively with Overton on the floor — 8.1 points per 100 possessions better, per CBB Analytics.
Offensively, Pearl says that Overton should be able to stretch the floor for the Tigers, which is a sign that he’ll get slotted into sort of a Kelly-like role. But while he is a capable shooter — 34 percent from 3 for his career — he’s at his best off the bounce as a slithery driver who always seems to find a way to get to his left hand. While Overton didn’t play out of ball screens much for the Red Raiders, he did so frequently as a freshman for Drake and he spent the summer playing more out of ball screens for the Tigers.
As for his shooting, Pearl said he’d like to see Overton increase his 3-point frequency while maintaining his percentage. If he follows Kelly, that could lead to a boost in efficiency. Kelly shot 35 percent from 3 in three years at Georgia Tech, and bumped his percentage up to 37.8 percent on 6.1 attempts per game last year.
Nijel Pack and Derrion Reid, Oklahoma
Porter Moser has two players in Derrion Reid and Nijel Pack, and he believes the basketball world has forgotten how good they are.
Reid was a five-star freshman a year ago on a loaded Alabama team, one that made the Elite Eight, and he was averaging 8.1 points in 17.5 minutes per game through Alabama’s first 15 games until a leg injury sidelined him and pushed him out of the rotation.
Pack was an All-Big 12 performer as a sophomore at K-State and then averaged 13.3 points on a Final Four team in 2024. Last season he played only nine games because of a foot injury, which earned him a medical redshirt and a sixth year of eligibility.
Those are two pedigrees Moser was excited to bet on and he’s happy with the early returns based on what they looked like this summer. Both are healthy. Reid just turned 19 in June, he’s 6-8 and if he plays to his potential, that looks a lot like the profile of an NBA player.
“He’s so powerful and athletic,” Moser said. “I think he’s going to be a good one.”
Pack has made 313 3s in his career, and his shot hasn’t gone anywhere.
“He has got an absolute flame thrower for a shot,” Moser said.
Moser also landed Xzayvier Brown, who we ranked as the 23rd-best transfer, and Tae Davis (78th). If you’re looking for a team outside of the preseason Top 25 capable of getting there quickly, the Sooners are a good bet, especially if Reid can become a star and Pack returns to what he was two years ago. Also worth noting the Sooners are one of only four schools — joining Kentucky, Auburn and Michigan — with four transfers ranked in our top 100.
“We’re older. We’re definitely longer, more athletic. That’s for dang sure,” Moser said. “I don’t think anyone has us top 12 (in the SEC). Expectations only matter within your own locker room. I really like this team.”
LeJuan Watts, Texas Tech
Watts was our 52nd-ranked transfer at The Athletic, but I wouldn’t be shocked if he produces like a top-five transfer based on the role he’s inherited and his skill set matching up exactly with the way Texas Tech wants to play. Watts will fill the Darrion Williams role as the mismatch four who can both score and facilitate.
“He loves to pass,” McCasland said. “It’s his favorite thing to do.”
Watts already proved himself as one of the best passing wings in the country — 4.4 assists per game last year — and a likely increased usage rate could see his scoring (13.7 points per game last season) go up.
Williams certainly benefited from the system. After averaging 7.6 points per game at Nevada and earning Mountain West Freshman of the Year, he averaged 11.4 points and 2.5 assists as a sophomore at Texas Tech and then saw his numbers rise to 15.1 points and 3.6 assists last season when former Wyoming coach Jeff Linder took over the offense.
Watts already showed that he can level up successfully, following his former coach David Riley from Eastern Washington to Washington State, where his per-game averages increased.
Linder keeps it simple, putting his best players in space. In Year One of the Linder offense at Texas Tech, Williams had the best season of his career, JT Toppin was Big 12 Player of the Year and an All-American and the Red Raiders rewrote the school’s record book when it came to 3s made and attempted. McCasland leaned into Linder’s approach by loading up on spacers in the portal, landing two elite shooters in Tyeree Bryan and Donovan Atwell, who made a combined 162 3s last season.
Because of the shooting last season, the hardest thing to guard with Williams was when he got isolated and utilized a Barkley dribble to bully defenders into the post, and that’s a Watts specialty. He scored 1.124 points per possession on post-ups, per Synergy. So Linder can basically replicate last year’s offense even after losing a top-five transfer.
(Top photo of Kevin Overton: Jamie Squire / Getty Images)
