Gonzaga vs. San Francisco Preview (at Chase Center)

The Dons are coming off a very narrow TWO-point win over Oregon State and now return home to finish out the regular season against the Zags. It was an evenly matched contest down in Corvallis that ultimately came down to the final 10 seconds of play when USF’s Veniamin Abosi connected from deep to lift the Dons to a 74-72 win.

USF’s Marcus Williams finished against the BeavERs with 21 points on 5-of-8 shooting from the perimeter, while the West Coast Conference’s leading scorer, Malik Thomas, chipped in 14.

The last time these two teams met, Gonzaga turned in an uneven, though ultimately strong enough performance, finishing with an 88-77 win. Eventually, the offense got itself going, with five players scoring in double figures and three posting double-doubles. Graham Ike and Braden Huff combined for 30 points, while Ryan Nembhard delivered 13 assists and a season-high 18 points. The Zags were also able to dominate the glass in that one, out-rebounding the Dons 41-28, led by Ike’s 13 and Michael Ajayi’s 10.

It was the slowest start of any game this season, with Gonzaga not even getting a point on the board for the game’s first five minutes, putting them in an early hole that they spent much of the first half clawing their way back out of. But they came out strong after halftime to go up 13, quick. The Dons made a big run late, keeping the final three minutes closer than the Zags would have liked, but the defense held firm—mostly.

One notable issue in that game was Gonzaga’s difficulty containing the opponent’s top scorer doing the thing he’s best at. In this case, USF’s Malik Thomas put up 26 points against the Zags on 7-of-17 shooting, including 4-of-8 from deep. Ryan Beasley also added 16 points on 7-of-10 shooting. Thankfully, the Zags were able to hold the Dons’ second scoring option, Marcus Williams, more or less in check with 9 points on 2-of-12 shooting and 1-of-7 from outside.

Officiating also played a larger role than usual in that one, with 40 total fouls called. Given USF’s physical playing style and focus on rebounding, a high foul count was unsurprising but still no fun to sit through.

USF currently ranks #61 in KenPom and #60 in the NET. They hold a 23-7 overall record and are now 13-4 in conference play. They notched one of the season’s most significant upsets a couple weeks ago, defeating Saint Mary’s by a single point. It was a hard fought defensive battle between these two, the Dons held the Gaels to just 3-of-23 shooting from beyond the arc and out-rebounded them 38-35—an unbelievably rare feat against a Randy Bennett squad. USF effectively beat Saint Mary’s at their own game, controlling the glass and dictating the pace of play with tough defense and back-breaking shots from outside.

For Gonzaga to secure a win on the road, they’ll need to follow a similar approach: dominate the boards, avoid turnovers, and make your shots.

How to Beat the Dons

1. Contain Malik Thomas

Malik Thomas is among the frontrunners for WCC Player of the Year. He leads the conference in scoring with 19.5 points per game while playing around 30 minutes each night. Thomas ranks 7th in the conference for overall field goal percentage and 6th in total three-pointers made.

What really sets him apart, though, is his ability to get to the free-throw line. Thomas leads the conference in free throw attempts and converts at 83.2%, a mark better than Oregon State’s Michael Rataj and Saint Mary’s Augustus Marciulionis.

Thomas is a tough cover for any defense. He’s quick, patient, and likes to have the ball in his hands. He can knock down shots from deep, but if those looks aren’t there, he’ll drive aggressively to the rim, looking for a bucket or a foul—and often getting both. The Zags will need to stay disciplined on the perimeter and avoid giving him easy trips to the line.

2. Control the Offensive Boards

Like Saint Mary’s, USF is effective at limiting opponents to one shot per possession. For Gonzaga, this means focusing on high-percentage looks and crashing the glass hard when those shots don’t fall. The Dons box out hard from all five positions and are extremely physical in bringing down 50/50 balls, so much like the Gaels, the Zags will once again have their toughness tested.

All five Zags on the floor will need to do better than they did against Saint Mary’s in making sure their opponent doesn’t control the pace of play through their rebounding. Perhaps this presents another opportunity for Ismaila Diagne to step in and help win the rebounding battle.

3. Take Care of the Ball

Gonzaga’s ball security will also be tested against USF’s backcourt. The Dons rank among the best in the conference at forcing turnovers, led by the backcourt duo of Thomas and Williams, both of whom rank in the conference’s top 10 for steals.

The Zags’ guards must avoid careless passes and sloppy ball-handling when setting up and executing the offense. However, the Dons’ aggressive perimeter defense can also be foul-prone, and without Thomas on the floor, their offense tends to stall out. If Nembhard and Battle can draw contact around the three-point line, it could seriously compromise some key players and create opportunities at the free-throw line.

The Bottom Line

It’s worth noting that the Dons are also undefeated at home for the first time since 1981. And although this next game will be at the Chase Center and not USF’s War Memorial Gymnasium, it’s still San Francisco, and local fans without regular access to home games are undoubtedly going to pack the place. It’ll be another extremely tough test in another extremely hostile environment for the Zags, another chance to collect themselves and demonstrate some toughness.

To close out conference play with a win, Gonzaga will need to contain Malik Thomas, win the rebounding battle, and limit turnovers. The Dons are coming off an impressive win against Saint Mary’s, and looking for a West Coast Conference Tournament bye straight to the semifinals with their matchup against the Zags. Gonzaga will once again be tested in their ability to execute with poise and grit despite their packed late-season schedule. They just put down Santa Clara and were able to hold off USF last month. Given the right mix of physicality and patience, the Zags will be able to finish their regular season on a high note.