The Final Four is set and we have all No. 1 seeds for just the second time ever. Kenpom was created in 1996 and since then, four of the best 10 teams to ever be rated are remaining in this NCAA Tournament. This means we are witnessing the most talented Final Four in a lot of people’s lifetimes and I expect the games to live up to the hype.
Auburn is the No. 1 overall seed, but the least likely to win the title per oddsmakers between +475 and +550. I have a ticket from November on Auburn to win the Natty at +400, so I am hanging on by a thread, but I think there is a better bet on the board.
National Champion: Duke (+100)
Most Oustanding Player: Cooper Flagg (+125)
Kenpom ranks Duke as the No. 1 team in the nation, while Barttorvik gives that edge to Houston with Duke second and vice-versa on Kenpom and the same with Florida and Auburn as the third and fourth-ranked teams.
There are no real edges for any of these teams as the matchups fit their playing styles. Duke and Houston have the two best defenses in the country and play slower, so fitting they meet, while Auburn and Florida both play at quicker tempos and rank as the second and third-best offenses behind Duke.
As tough as it is to pick a winner, I grabbed Duke at +165 and +185 in the Elite 8 to cut down the nets. At +100, I still think there is a little value, but rolling over the ML could be the better bet as the payout could be a little better.
However, Duke has the best player in the country, Cooper Flagg, the highest-rated offense, the tallest average height, the No. 1 effective field goal percentage on defense, and the sixth-slowest paced defense. The paint defense can match up with Houston or Auburn, and the shooting of Flagg, Tyrese Proctor, and Kon Knueppel can hang with Florida’s high-flying offense. No matter the matchup, I think Duke has what it takes to win over the others, while there are some negatives to the field.
Florida trailed by 10 points against Texas Tech with 5:32 remaining before Tech left the door open for a Gators rally. The Gators also trailed UConn in the second half with around nine minutes left in a back-and-forth before pulling a comeback and winning by two points. While Walter Clayton Jr. is the best guard in the country, another completed second-half comeback would be unlikely in the Final Four.
Houston is one of the best rebounding teams of my life and up there when it comes to physicality on the defensive end, but I do have some issues with the Cougars. Despite being so dominant in the paint, Houston shoots 48.4% from two (282nd) and scores on a free throw only 16.2% of the time (315th). The Cougars shot 15 free throws over the last two games and 41.7% from two (33-of-79), which won’t be enough to beat Duke, Florida, or Auburn.
For Auburn, they are one of the most talented teams, but erratic. The Tigers turned the ball over a season-high 10 times in the first half against Michigan, then had six total turnovers against Michigan State, which makes no sense. In four tournament games, Auburn has shot 107 three-point attempts and made 33 for 30.8%. Against MSU, Auburn went 11-of-20 (55%) from the free-throw line, which is a concern this late in the season. I can’t trust the volatility of this offense despite the ceiling being so high.
All in all, I will take Duke at +100 and take their best player, Cooper Flagg to win the Most Oustanding Player considering he has at least a 95% likelihood to win if the Blue Devils cut down the net.
Pick: Duke to win the National Championship (2u), Cooper Flagg to win Most Oustanding Player Award (1u)
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Final Four Betting Trends:
Houston vs. Duke: Top betting trends and recent stats
The Cougars are making their 7th appearance in the Final FourThe Cougars have reached the national championship twice in school history (1983 and 1984)The Blue Devils are seeking their first national championship since 2015Jon Scheyer won the national championship as a player with the Blue Devils in 2010This is the Blue Devils’ 18th Final Four appearanceThe Blue Devils are 7-3 against the spread in their last 10 gamesThe Cougars are 4-4-2 in their last 10 gamesThe Game Totals in Duke’s NCAA Tourney games have cashed to the OVER in 3 of their 4 gamesThe Game Totals in Houston’s NCAA Tourney games have cashed to the UNDER in 3 of their 4 games
Florida vs. Auburn: Top betting trends and recent stats
The Gators are 3-2 in the Final Four in their historyThe Gators are 6-4 against the spread in their last 10 gamesGame Totals in the Gators’ last 10 games have cashed to the OVERThe Tigers are 0-1 in the Final Four in their historyThe Tigers have covered the spread in their last 3 games but are just 5-5 ATS in their last 10The Game Totals in the Tigers’ last 10 games are 5-5 (O/U)
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