Men’s Big East Bracketology preview: NCAA tournament predictions

Don’t let the low number of annual NCAA tournament bids (4.6) fool you. At only 11 teams, the Big East is the smallest power college basketball conference and is holding its own with more than 40% of its members making the field of 68 over the past four seasons. Thanks first to Jay Wright and recently Danny Hurley, the Big East also historically wins when it goes dancing. UConn’s 12-0 tourney mark in 2023 and 2024 is a big part of the league’s best-in-class NCAA winning percentage. But the tide is turning, and not for good.

Two years ago, the Big East was hurt by excess bid stealers and lost likely NCAA invites for Seton Hall and St. John’s. Last season’s five bids seemed great until no Big East team, not even the 2-seed Red Storm, made it through the first weekend. And this season’s nonconference numbers have taken a dip.

UConn and St. John’s are the only NCAA locks as the Big East begins its conference schedule Dec. 13, and it’s possible the league will receive the fewest tournament bids in its rightfully proud history.

Big East by the numbers

Minimum projected NCAA bids2Maximum projected NCAA bids3Average NCAA bids*4.6 (5th out of top-5 conferences)Average NCAA seed*6.23 (4th out of top-5 conferences)NCAA record*37-21 (.535, 1st out of top-5 conferences)*Data collected over the previous four NCAA tournaments

Final Four contenders

UConn Huskies

UConn has the firepower it takes to capture a third national title in four seasons. Of course, it’s a whole lot easier to type that sentence than to make it come true, especially in a season that figures to present tougher March competition than the Huskies faced in 2023 or 2024.

Likely tournament teams

St. John’s Red Storm

Before the season, most would have placed St. John’s in the Final Four tier. But the Red Storm have been just regular good — not special — through the first five weeks. They remain a near-lock tournament team, but capturing even a top-four seed is no better than a 50/50 proposition at this point.

Possible tournament teams

Villanova WildcatsSeton Hall PiratesCreighton Bluejays

The Big East bubble might be shrinking in the aggregate. Villanova and Seton Hall figure to spend the winter hovering between the “Last Four In” and “First Four Out” categories — i.e., the Nos. 65-72 range. And Creighton needs to get it going quickly to join them.

Editor’s Picks

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Sleeper team

Butler Bulldogs

The Bulldogs were picked ninth in the preseason Big East poll, but Thad Matta’s guys have other ideas. Early wins over South Carolina and Virginia should hold up, and the middle of the conference should present more wins than expected heading into the season. If Butler can pick up an extra win or two against the top tier, landing on the right side of the bubble is very possible.

Long shots

Providence FriarsXavier MusketeersGeorgetown HoyasMarquette Golden EaglesDePaul Blue Demons

The first three teams on this list could move into bubble conversations by the time February rolls around. Marquette and DePaul simply don’t have the talent. The problem in counting on real upward mobility is that the Big East could be looking at a serious drop in chances to pad its teams’ Quad 1 resumés.

Key games to watch

Dec. 23: Villanova at Seton Hall. The Big East’s two most likely bubble teams square off early in conference play.

Feb. 6: UConn at St. John’s. The first of two huge meetings between the Huskies and Red Storm as the Big East plays a true round-robin.

Feb. 21: UConn at Villanova. Nova’s 1-5 streak against UConn figures to change under Kevin Willard.