Conference play is where college basketball reveals the truth. It’s where you see early surprises fade, preseason favorites reassert themselves and futures markets sharpen.
We will find out whether to believe in unbeatens like Vanderbilt and Nebraska, and if preseason top-five teams such as Florida and St. John’s bounce back after relatively disappointing starts.
So which teams can be trusted? And which bets are worth making today? Here’s some bets to win each of the Power 5 conferences and some other value plays in the mix:
ACC
Editor’s Picks
2 Related
Duke Blue Devils (+100): There’s a large gap between the Blue Devils and everyone else in the ACC, and the prices tell reiterate that. Offensively, Duke’s premier shotmaking ability will outpace everyone in the conference the rest of the regular season and its positional size creates matchup problems for opposing defenses.
Freshman Cameron Boozer is vying for National Player of the Year honors and the team will continue to lean on him to carry the load. The Blue Devils’ schedule plays in their favor as well. They’ve already beaten Louisville on the road, so the rematch with the Cardinals and their lone matchups with other contenders in Clemson and Virginia are at Cameron Indoor Stadium.
Value pick
Virginia Cavaliers (+320): This season’s UVA team is starting to look like those championship-level teams led by Tony Bennett. They are still very strong defensively, coming in at fourth in effective FG% defense and 10th in 3-point shooting defense. But now their offensive efficiency has caught up. The Hoos are 35th in the nation in 3-point shooting and they’re playing with some pace, unlike those Bennett teams.
The Cavaliers’ schedule also gives them a live shot to win the ACC. They get ranked contender North Carolina and Miami at home and they avoid Clemson altogether during the regular season. Virginia’s lone matchup with Duke on Feb. 28 is at Cameron Indoor. If they pull off the upset, they should take the title.
Big 12
Arizona Wildcats (+100): I’ve lauded the Wildcats several times over as a national title contender, so them winning the Big 12 shouldn’t surprise anyone. That doesn’t mean it will be easy, as there are four other teams ranked in the top 20 by KenPom in adjusted efficiency margin. But the Wildcats are the most complete team of them all. They beat opponents on both ends of the floor, thanks to elite shooting and ferocious rebounding. Senior guard Jaden Bradley’s shooting splits are impressive (53% FG, 52% 3FG, 82% FT) and he can carry them for long stretches if needed.
Value pick
Texas Tech Red Raiders (+3500): Stay with me here on this one. The Red Raiders are a good shooting team and that is something that can sustain them throughout the season. Junior forward JT Toppin is a Player of the Year candidate who is the only player in the nation averaging 20 points and 10 rebounds per game.
Texas Tech is battle tested. It has a neutral-court win over Duke and all four of its losses came against teams ranked in the AP top 20. Three of those four losses were by a combined 15 points. The Red Raiders “control their own destiny,” so to speak, as they have matchups with Arizona, Iowa State and BYU ahead, but they are all on the road, which is likely part of the reason this number is so high. The value is there, as the gap in the price between Tech and the conference favorites is much bigger than the gap in talent between all those teams.
Big East
Odds to win 2026 Men’s NCAA championship
SchoolOddsMichigan+400Arizona+600UConn+950Iowa State+1000Purdue+1100Houston+1200Duke+1300Gonzaga+1500Illinois+1700Vanderbilt+1800BYU+2500Florida+2800Michigan State+3000Alabama+4000Nebraska+4000Odds as of Jan. 14
St. John’s Red Storm (+425): UConn is the heaviest favorite to win their conference at -390, but it’s hard to endorse a straight bet on the Huskies at that price. The Red Storm were picked to win the Big East in the preseason coaches poll, so the talent is there. But losing to all three ranked opponents they’ve faced, as well as games to Kentucky and Providence, has dropped their price significantly. Rick Pitino should be able to get this team back on track in conference play and with two matchups against UConn, St. John’s can prove to itself and everyone else that it deserves to be in the conversation to win the league. The Red Storm swept the Huskies last season. This price will only drop as they get deeper into conference play and accumulate wins, so now is an ideal time to lock them in.
Value pick
Villanova Wildcats (+900): Not many people thought the Wildcats would amount to much before the season started, but they’ve ascended to 25th in KenPom in adjusted efficiency margin. It helps when 10 of your 14 victories are by 10 or more points. Two of their three losses were to top-10 teams in Michigan and BYU, so they’ve held their own. Villanova wins with defense, grinding the pace of the game to a halt and using 3-point shooting to keep opponents in chase mode. The Wildcats take and make a lot of 3s, which brings in some variance. But they still play UConn twice and St. John’s on the road. If they can take two out of three in those matchups, they will be right there.
Big Ten
Purdue Boilermakers (+200): I’m getting the No. 1 offense in the country in adjusted efficiency and the top 3-point shooting team in the Big Ten at plus money? I’m in. Some consider Michigan the best team in the country, but that doesn’t mean they can’t be beaten. Purdue’s senior guard Braden Smith leads the country in assists per game and is another National Player of the Year candidate. The Boilermakers’ experience is also a selling point as they still have a trio of starters from the team that lost in the title game two seasons ago. Their shooting can carry them, and they defend the perimeter well, holding opponents to 30% shooting from beyond the arc. That could be the difference-maker in a matchup with the Wolverines. These two will meet in West Lafayette on Feb. 17 in their lone meeting of the season. As long as they don’t trip up earlier against Illinois or Iowa, that matchup could clinch the title.
Value pick
Nebraska Cornhuskers (+450): If you didn’t believe in the Cornhuskers before the season, you should now. Winning their first 17 games should put everyone on notice. Nebraska overwhelms you with shot volume, particularly from long range, coming in 10th in the nation in 3-point rate. I get the sentiment that the “Cinderella” Cornhuskers could turn into a pumpkin, especially in a conference as deep as the Big Ten. They have road matchups with Michigan and Iowa, and a home date with Illinois remaining. Wins in those spots will drop this price dramatically as we get deeper in the season. If you believe, now is the time to grab this number.
SEC
Vanderbilt Commodores (-175): Florida won the national championship last season. Auburn and Alabama have each made a Final Four in the last two seasons. Kentucky and Arkansas have multiple banners hanging in their arenas. So, we all had Vanderbilt being the best team in the SEC this season, right? Playing at a torrid pace and making shots from everywhere has defined the Commodores’ rise this season. They are legit and should be taken seriously as a national title contender. Vanderbilt’s price is only going to drop. They just knocked off Alabama and if they take care of Florida at home and Arkansas on the road next week, there could be talk of an undefeated regular season. The SEC isn’t as deep as it was last season and that makes the Commodores a solid bet at this price.
Value pick
Arkansas Razorbacks (+1800): The Razorbacks are young and energetic, with five underclassmen seeing significant minutes for coach John Calipari. They play fast and make a ton of 3s. They are 3-3 against ranked opponents thus far with signature wins against a fully healthy Louisville squad and Texas Tech. They have one of the best backcourts in the country with freshman Darius Acuff Jr. and Meleek Thomas, who have combined to shoot 40% from 3-point range. This is exactly the type of team that Coach Cal loves. They are loaded with skill and are tough to wear down. While some may view their youth as a hindrance, especially on the road, their talent is undeniable. The SEC is fairly wide open and if somehow Vanderbilt stumbles, it gives Arkansas a clear shot at the title.
