Welcome to our annual midseason check-in.
Here’s how it works: I pick six teams that I think can win the national championship. In 2023-24, UConn and Purdue were at the top of my list and met in the national championship game. Last year, I got cocky and listed only three teams, but did have Florida among my “other title contenders I wouldn’t be shocked to see win it.”
I’m back to six this year. And frankly, I should probably go deeper. The top tier of college basketball is deeeeep this year. Every week when I’m ranking the Top 25, I get to 11 or 12 or 13 and think, “How can this team rank that low?” With an awesome freshman class and NIL keeping good players in school longer as well as contributing to more international players coming to play college basketball, there’s more talent in college basketball this season than maybe any time this century. It should make for a fun March and April.
So let’s look ahead. In addition to the title contenders and that next tier, I give you the wild cards, bubble-bound-but-dangerous teams and mid-majors who could make a run. NIL and the transfer portal have made mid-majors almost irrelevant — we’ve gone two straight tournaments without a true mid-major making the second weekend (San Diego State doesn’t count) — but there is one this year that could have a legitimate shot at making the second weekend.
One of these six will win the national title
Arizona
Record: 21-0, 8-0 Big 12Player to know: Jaden Bradley (14.0 points per game, 4.4 assists per game)
Eventually, either Gonzaga coach Mark Few or his former assistant, Arizona coach Tommy Lloyd, is going to win a national championship. Lloyd is off to a terrific start as a head coach. In four seasons, he has never been lower than a No. 4 seed in the NCAA Tournament. This is his best team yet, and the separator between his previous teams is Arizona’s defense. The combination of length and physicality makes the Wildcats special. And when it gets down to winning time, Bradley, the team’s point guard, has been one of the most clutch players in college basketball.
Michigan
Record: 19-1, 9-1 Big TenPlayer to know: Yaxel Lendeborg (14.2 points per game, 7.0 rebounds per game)
When it’s on its A-game, no one is better. The Wolverines’ spurtability is reminiscent of UConn’s two recent title teams. The first UConn title team had runs of 10-0 or more 28 times, and the second had 32 such runs; Michigan already has 27 in 20 games. Consider this is a team that gave Gonzaga its only loss all season and won by 40. The Wolverines are the best 2-point shooting team in the country and have the second-best 2-point defense. They almost seemed to get bored in January, but when motivated, this team has another gear.
UConn
Record: 20-1, 10-0 Big EastPlayer to know: Tarris Reed Jr. (14.5 points per game, 7.9 rebounds per game)
The predictive rankings do not love UConn because its offense, ranked 39th at KenPom in adjusted efficiency, has not performed at championship levels. One issue is 3-point shooting and Solo Ball (28.2 percent from 3) got off to a cold start this year. But Ball is a career 36 percent shooter from deep, and UConn has a second marksman in freshman Braylon Mullins. There’s reason to believe the offense will improve and the defensive numbers are almost identical to the back-to-back title teams. Considering Dan Hurley’s teams get better as the season progresses, the Huskies must be included.
Houston
Record: 18-2, 6-1 Big 12Player to know: Kingston Flemings (17.5 points per game, 5.4 assists per game)
This is Kelvin Sampson’s most efficient offense at Houston, and he might be coaching his most talented player ever in Flemings. The Houston perimeter trio of Flemings, Emanuel Sharp and Milos Uzan is one of the best in the country. What hasn’t been up to the Houston standard is the defense. The Coogs still rank ninth in adjusted defense, but there’s a major drop-off when Joseph Tugler leaves the floor — allowing 89.3 points per 100 possessions with Tugler, and 105.0 when he’s on the bench, per CBB Analytics. Tugler is susceptible to foul trouble, and Houston’s backup bigs are not nearly as strong as Sampson’s past teams. If Tugler can stay on the floor in March and April, then this team will have a chance.
This could be Illinois’ best chance to make the Final Four since its last trip there in 2005. (Michael Reaves / Getty Images)
Illinois
Record: 17-3, 8-1 Big TenPlayer to know: Keaton Wagler (17.5 points per game, 5.0 rebounds per game)
The best offense in college basketball is one Jamarques Lawrence buzzer-beater away from a 12-game winning streak. The Illini are hard to guard because they always have five shooters on the floor, and leading scorer Keaton Wagler is the most unselfish star in college basketball. Most champs finish inside the top 20 in both adjusted offensive and defensive efficiency at KenPom, and the Illini currently rank 30th in adjusted defense, but context matters. Kylan Boswell, the team’s best defender and senior leader, is out with a fractured right hand, and the Illini had the 21st-best defense before his injury.
Nebraska
Record: 20-1, 9-1 Big TenPlayer to know: Rienk Mast (14.6 points per game, 6.0 rebounds per game)
This might be the most disciplined, resilient, hardest-playing team in the country. The latest proof: The Huskers led for about 39 minutes on Tuesday at Michigan, missing their best player (Mast) and sixth man (Braden Frager). Defensively, the Huskers play a switch-heavy, no-middle scheme, and they seem to always be in the right spot. On the offensive end, there are similarities to Fred Hoiberg’s best Iowa State teams, with a playmaking big in Mast surrounded by 3-point shooters. Seems like every game they have a stretch where their shooters get hot and they pull away. Not sure the Huskers the surefire NBA talent most title teams have, but they’re undefeated when healthy and have wins against Illinois (on the road) and Michigan State. They’re going to be a tough out.
Other title contenders I wouldn’t be shocked to see win it
Duke
Record: 19-1, 8-0 ACCPlayer to know: Cameron Boozer (23.5 points per game, 9.9 rebounds per game)
Duke has been the most dominant team in the country the last couple of weeks and is a Texas Tech comeback away from being undefeated. Cameron Boozer has won at every level, winning the under-15, under-16 and under-17 Peach Jams on the Nike Circuit, the 2025 Chipotle Nationals (the equivalent of a high school national title) and two gold medals with USA Basketball. He’s also been the most dominant player in college hoops this season. He can take over with both his scoring and his passing if you decide to send help. Sophomore wing Isaiah Evans has been more consistent lately in his Robin role and Duke is defending at a high level. Jon Scheyer also now has the experience of coaching in a Final Four. There’s a lot to like about Duke, and this might be Scheyer’s best coaching job yet.
Michigan State
Record: 19-2, 9-1 Big TenPlayer to know: Jeremy Fears Jr. (14.1 points per game, 8.9 assists per game)
The Spartans are the best defensive team in the country, one of the best rebounding teams in the country, have an elite setup man (Fears) and the biggest concern coming into the season (3-point shooting) has actually been pretty good (35.9 percent). Tom Izzo has done a tremendous job getting the most out of this team, which knows how to play to its strengths. But I still question whether there’s enough shooting and floor spacing to win six games in March and April. Similar to Nebraska, this is a team with experience and toughness that will be a hard out. The difference is Nebraska has more offensive pop and shooting.
Purdue
Record: 17-4, 7-3 Big TenPlayer to know: Braden Smith (15.1 points per game, 9.0 assists per game)
Smith is playing out of his mind right now but Purdue has still lost three straight. The Boilermakers have really struggled with their ball screen defense — see Keaton Wagler’s 46 points — and their bigs and wings’ defending on the perimeter seems to be a weakness. The offense is still one of the best in the country because Smith is a maestro and Trey Kaufman-Renn is a chess piece that Matt Painter can use in different spots, but Painter will need to figure out some solutions for his defense by March.
Iowa State
Record: 18-2, 5-2 Big 12Player to know: Joshua Jefferson (17.4 points per game, 7.8 rebounds per game)
The Cyclones are probably the most complete team in this tier. They have an elite senior point guard in Tamin Lipsey, elite shooting (40.3 percent from 3), a playmaking big who has played at All-America levels in Jefferson and the defense is elite, ranking sixth in adjusted defense. That’s a lot of elite! The concern is whether Iowa State has enough shot creation from the guard spot. Freshman Killyan Toure has been awesome as a defender, but the Clones could use a secondary ballhandler next to Lipsey.
JT Toppin has the ability to carry Texas Tech on a deep tournament run — as he did a year ago. (Alex Slitz / Getty Images)
Texas Tech
Record: 16-4, 6-1 Big 12Player to know: JT Toppin (22.1 points per game, 10.9 rebounds per game)
The Red Raiders didn’t look like a title contender the first two months of the season when they were good but not great, but this team has improved as much as any in-season. Christian Anderson and Toppin are the best offensive duo in college basketball. The Red Raiders have limitations defensively because of their lack of size — ranking 243rd in average height — and early on it seemed like a team that was just trying to win by outscoring the opponent. Now they are really competing, taking on the personality of coach Grant McCasland. McCasland also just got back Josiah Moseley, the 6-foot-8 Villanova transfer, who gives him another bigger body and shooter. He made two big 3s in his debut against Houston.
Gonzaga
Record: 21-1, 9-0 West CoastPlayer to know: Graham Ike (18.1 points per game, 8.8 rebounds per game)
Can a team capable of losing a game by 40 really win a national championship? The historical hope for Gonzaga is that 2016 Villanova lost by 23 to Oklahoma in December and then beat that same team by 44 in the Final Four on its way to winning a national title. It’s possible the Bulldogs’ 101-61 loss to Michigan was an outlier performance. The Zags had climbed to No. 1 at KenPom before that Michigan loss. But they’ve been dropping lately, in part because bigs Braden Huff and Ike have been out with injuries. The talent might not be comparable to Mark Few’s best teams, but this group is experienced and should have a high seed. Few is bound to win a title at some point. Maybe it’ll be in a year no one expected him to do it.
Wild cards
BYU
Record: 17-3, 5-2 Big 12Player to know: AJ Dybantsa (23.6 points per game, 6.7 rebounds per game)
The Cougars have three studs (Dybantsa, Robert Wright III and Richie Saunders) and Kevin Young has proven to be an elite offensive coach. The defense is better than a year ago but probably not championship-level, mainly because there’s not enough depth in the frontcourt. Dybantsa is electric but his efficiency numbers have dropped in Big 12 play, and it’s tough for this team to beat other top-tier teams when he has an off night.
Alabama
Record: 14-6, 4-3 SECPlayer to know: Labaron Philon Jr. (22 points per game, 5.1 assists per game)
The Crimson Tide have awesome guards but also had bad injury luck and not enough size, rebounding or rim protection. Then coach Nate Oats went and got Charles Bediako, was the starting center on his 2022-23 team that finished third in adjusted defense. Bediako, who Oats plucked from the G League, could eventually be ruled ineligible, but if he’s in the fold and Aiden Sherrell is healthy and playing like he did on Tuesday against Missouri (16 points and three 3-pointers), then this team gets interesting. The guard trio of Philon, Aden Holloway and Latrell Wrightsell Jr. gives Alabama a chance to win any game. When at full strength, this is probably a top-10 team.
Florida
Record: 15-6, 6-2 SECPlayer to know: Thomas Haugh (17.4 points per game, 6.5 rebounds per game)
The Gators returned their entire frontcourt from last season’s title team, and they can overwhelm opponents with their length and rebounding. The issue has been guard play and 3-point shooting (28.5 percent from deep). Still, on the nights when Xaivian Lee and Boogie Fland show up, this is a really hard team to beat. Both have been inconsistent and it’s hard to trust this team, but no one is going to want to face that frontcourt in March.
Darius Acuff Jr. is a top-20 prospect for the 2026 NBA Draft, and makes Arkansas a dangerous opponent in March. (Wes Hale / Getty Images)
Arkansas
Record: 16-5, 6-2 SECPlayer to know: Darius Acuff Jr. (20.2 points per game, 6.3 assists per game)
John Calipari’s best teams usually have an elite NBA-level point guard and he has a good one in Acuff. There are nights when the Razorbacks look like a title contender, especially when Trevon Brazile plays well. The issue is inconsistency. Sometimes the Razorbacks look mediocre — see a 95-73 loss to Auburn and a 90-76 loss to Georgia. It’s hard to trust the Razorbacks to bring it for three straight weeks come tourney time, but similar to last year when Arkansas upset St. John’s, this is a team that could wipe out a title contender.
Kansas
Record: 15-5, 5-2 Big 12Player to know: Darryn Peterson (21.6 points per game, 4.6 rebounds per game)
Before Peterson sprained his ankle, it looked like he was starting to find a rhythm and the Jayhawks were learning to play with him. Kansas’ 84-63 win against Iowa State was an eye-opener. If we pretended that the season started on that night, the Jayhawks have been the fourth-best team in college basketball since, per Bart Torvik’s data, and that included one win (at Kansas State) without Peterson. Melvin Council Jr. has emerged as a dangerous second option on the perimeter, one of the best downhill drivers in the country, and Flory Bidunga is turning into one of the best bigs in the country. KU’s frontcourt depth is thin, but if Peterson can get and stay healthy, this is a scary team.
Bubble-bound but dangerous
Indiana
Record: 14-7, 5-5 Big TenPlayer to know: Lamar Wilkerson (19.4 points per game, 3.4 rebounds per game)
The Hoosiers are 2-0 since Nick Dorn moved into the starting lineup, and he’s made 10 3s and scored 41 points in those two games. Trying to defend Dorn, Wilkerson and Tucker DeVries on the floor together is not easy. When that combo is on the floor, the Hoosiers are attempting 57.4 percent of their shots from deep and making 37.7 percent of those 3s, per CBB Analytics. That’s a scary proposition in a one-and-done tournament.
Ohio State
Record: 14-6, 6-4 Big TenPlayer to know: Bruce Thornton (19.6 points per game, 5.5 rebounds per game)
The Buckeyes have underwhelmed this season but have the talent. Thornton is one of the best point guards in the country. John Mobley is one of the best shooters. Santa Clara transfer Christoph Tilly has been solid at center and gives Ohio State some inside scoring. Freshman forward Amare Bynum seems to be getting better as the season progresses, and Devin Royal is also a tricky matchup on the wing. That’s a really good starting five. The bench has struggled, but this team has played good teams (Illinois, North Carolina, Nebraska and Michigan) close and seems close to figuring things out.
NC State
Record: 15-6, 6-2 ACCPlayer to know: Darrion Williams (14.4 points per game, 5.5 rebounds per game)
The Wolfpack weren’t great in the nonconference but are starting to play better in the ACC and they have several players with NCAA Tournament experience. One of those is Williams, who was in a slump in December but has broken out of it. Williams has scored 20-plus in three of the last seven games, and he was one of the most productive players in last year’s NCAA Tournament for Texas Tech. There’s enough talent that it wouldn’t be surprising to see the Wolfpack make a second-weekend run.
Mid-majors who could make a run
Saint Louis
Record: 20-1, 8-0 Atlantic 10Player to know: Robbie Avila (13.1 points per game, 4.5 rebounds per game)
Last weekend, the Billikens were leading college basketball in effective field-goal percentage on both offense and defense. No team has ever led in both categories since KenPom has been tracking advanced analytics. They’ve since dropped to third on offense, but it’s a pretty good formula to make a lot of shots and keep your opponent from making many of theirs. Josh Schertz is considered one of the best offensive minds in the sport, and Avila, who became affectionately known as “Cream Abdul-Jabbar” two years ago at Indiana State, has spent four years in that system. This team is incredibly fun to watch.
Utah State coach Jerrod Calhoun has the Aggies in NCAA Tournament contention again — and could be a top coaching carousel candidate. (David Becker / Getty Images)
Utah State
Record: 17-3, 8-2 Mountain WestPlayer to know: Mason Falslev (16.3 points per game, 5.9 rebounds per game)
The Aggies made another home run hire two years ago when they landed Jerrod Calhoun, and it’s a mid-major program that has actually been able to hold onto its best players. Falslev, an All-Mountain West second-teamer last year, is one of only two All-MWC players to return to his team this year. Calhoun also nailed the portal, bringing in Vandy transfer MJ Collins, who went from a sub-30 percent 3-point shooter to shooting 40.5 percent from deep this year and averaging 19.3 points per game. Calhoun also has a funky matchup zone that could help him win a game or two in the tourney by creating confusion.
Santa Clara
Record: 18-5, 9-1 West CoastPlayer to know: Christian Hammond (17.0 points per game, 3.1 rebounds per game)
Herb Sendek does as good a job as anyone at this level of evaluating and finding talent. (See Jalen Williams and Brandin Podziemski.) This appears to be his best team yet. The Broncos win the possession war, rebounding 38 percent of their misses and turning opponents over on 20.7 percent of theirs. They’re currently 9-1 in the WCC with a win over Saint Mary’s and the only loss coming on the road at then-full-strength Gonzaga in a game in which Santa Clara led by 8 late in the first half. The Broncos are deep — eight players average 6.2 points or better — and Sendek’s ability to spread the floor with shooters has led to a very efficient team inside the arc.
Miami (Ohio)
Record: 21-0, 9-0 MACPlayer to know: Peter Suder (14.1 points per game, 4.5 rebounds per game)
The RedHawks, one of two remaining unbeaten teams, have won three games this year in overtime and two others were decided by one bucket. They rank No. 2 in effective field-goal percentage, and their balance (six players averaging double figures) and 3-point shooting (all six shoot north of 39.4 percent from deep) are their strengths. Travis Steele lost two players to the portal last year but he returned a majority of his core from a 25-win team and the RedHawks rank fifth nationally in minutes continuity. That’s important. The schedule is the knock — only one top-100 opponent — but there’s value in developing the confidence that comes with winning all your games and knowing when it’s close, you find a way to win.
Liberty
Record: 17-3, 9-0 Conference USAPlayer to know: Zach Cleveland (10.8 points per game, 8.1 rebounds per game)
If you’re looking for this year’s Drake, it could be Liberty. Ritchie McKay, a former assistant under longtime Virginia coach Tony Bennett, plays at a slow pace but his team shoots a lot of 3s and runs beautiful offense, and he has one of the best playmaking bigs in the country in Cleveland, who averages 6.9 assists per game. Size is a big concern — Liberty is the second-smallest team in the country, per KenPom — but a low-possession game against a team with elite shooting could be a recipe for an upset.
