One day of Madness is in the books. Now it’s time for Day 2 of the most exciting four days in men’s basketball.
The NCAA Tournament resumes Friday with 16 more games across four regional sites to determine the final entries into the Round of 32. Day 1 gave us one big upset (pleased to meet you, Chase Johnston), one massive scare (exhale, Duke fans) and plenty of chalk.
What will Day 2 bring? Another mid-major statement from Miami (Ohio)? A bracket-busting upset (or three)?
Here’s what to watch in Friday’s slate of games.
No. 7 Kentucky vs. No. 10 Santa Clara
12:15 p.m. ET, CBS
Santa Clara is back in the NCAA Tournament for the first time since 1996, and the Broncos are shaping up as a trendy first-round upset pick.
If Santa Clara is going to knock off Kentucky, it’ll come down to what it does best: create extra possessions. The Broncos thrive on the offensive glass, ranking 11th in offensive rebounding percentage among those in the field and 19th nationally. They also generate chaos on defense, sitting sixth in steal percentage among tournament teams and 17th in the country. That combination — crashing the boards and forcing turnovers — could tilt the possession battle, especially against a Kentucky team that is average on the glass.
One wrinkle to watch: How the game is officiated. Santa Clara rarely gets to the line, ranking 357th out of 360 teams in free-throw attempts (16.4 per game). Kentucky, on the other hand, fouls at a high rate, ranking 277th in opponent free-throw attempts. If Santa Clara’s activity on the offensive boards leads to more contact, that could become a major factor.
Kentucky is powered by Otega Oweh (18.2 points per game) and Denzel Aberdeen (13.2), but keep an eye on Collin Chandler (9.9) as an X-factor. The 6-foot-5 guard from Farmington, Utah, has taken a step forward since the new year and can swing a game in Kentucky’s favor.
Santa Clara counters with one of the more intriguing prospects in the country in Allen Graves, a future NBA draft pick who averages 11.6 points, 6.5 rebounds and 1.8 assists per game. He wins with feel and skill rather than overwhelming athleticism. Christian Hammond has emerged as the Broncos’ go-to scorer, making a major leap this season to 15.8 points per game, while Elijah Mahi adds another 13.9 points per night.
Ultimately, the game may hinge on the 3-point line. The Broncos are 17-1 when shooting better than 35 percent from deep, but just 9-7 when they don’t. Kentucky’s perimeter defense will be tested, but the Wildcats are top 50 nationally in 3-point defense — giving them a clear path if they can control the arc. — Tobias Bass, staff editor
No. 5 Texas Tech vs. No. 12 Akron
12:40 p.m. ET, truTV
Here comes another trendy first-round upset pick.
The Red Raiders enter the tourney shorthanded and vulnerable. First Team All-American JT Toppin is out with a torn ACL, projected first-round pick Christian Anderson is dealing with a groin injury, and LeJuan Watts is battling an ankle issue suffered during the Big 12 tournament.
That opens the door for an Akron team that can flat-out score. The Zips boast the eighth-most efficient offense in the country, per KenPom, while ranking inside the top 15 in both 3-point and 2-point percentage. Texas Tech, to its credit, can match that firepower, ranking fourth nationally in 3-point percentage and 22nd in effective field goal percentage.
This one sets up as a track meet. Neither team has much size — Akron is the smallest team in the field, while Texas Tech is the smallest high-major in the tournament — so expect pace, spacing and a lot of shots.
Texas Tech still has the best player on the floor in Anderson, but Akron counters with its own sparkplug in Tavari Johnson, who averages 20.1 points per game and can swing a game in a hurry.
The key? Shooting variance. When Akron gets hot from deep, they’re nearly unstoppable, going 24-2 when they hit nine or more 3s. The good news for Texas Tech: they’ve only allowed nine or more 3s five times all season.
Where Akron can really tilt this matchup is by attacking downhill and testing Tech’s depth. The Red Raiders rank dead last in the field in bench minutes (357th in the country), so foul trouble could be a major factor.
Also, keep an eye on Donovan Atwell. He’s scored 15-plus points 10 times since the new year and could be a key X-factor in keeping Texas Tech afloat. — Tobias Bass, staff editor
No. 4 Alabama vs. No. 13 Hofstra
Friday 3:15 p.m. ET, truTV
If you’re a fan of high-level guard play, Alabama vs. Hofstra deserves a spot on your screen. Alabama rolls out a deep, versatile backcourt with four guards who can create, while Hofstra counters with a dynamic duo in CAA Player of the Year Cruz Davis and CAA Rookie of the Year Preston Edmead.
The Crimson Tide will be without star guard Aden Holloway (16.8 points per game) following his arrest on felony drug possession charges, putting even more pressure on All-SEC selection Labaron Philon Jr. (21.7), Latrell Wrightsell Jr. (12.8) and Amari Allen (11.7) to carry the load.
What makes this matchup fascinating is the ability of Hofstra’s backcourt to generate offense in bursts. Davis, a 6-foot-3 guard out of Plano, Texas, has five 30-point games this season, including a 36-point outburst against Pittsburgh in December. With his scoring instincts and NBA upside, he now has a stage to deliver another big-time performance.
Stylistically, Alabama’s offense is as extreme as it gets. The Tide either launch 3s or finish at the rim, ranking 363rd nationally in 2-point attempt percentage. Hofstra presents a unique challenge. Per KenPom, the Pride own the third-best defense in the country against 2-point attempts and rank ninth overall in defensive efficiency.
Alabama doesn’t generate much disruption on defense, sitting 362nd in defensive turnover percentage, and can be vulnerable when forced to guard in the halfcourt. Hofstra doesn’t have the overall firepower to match Alabama possession-for-possession, so its path is clear: slow the tempo, muddy the game and keep it within reach. If Davis heats up and Edmead complements him, the Pride have a real chance. — Tobias Bass, staff editor
No. 8 Villanova vs. No. 9 Utah State
4:10 p.m. ET, TNT
Utah State stands out as a top sleeper, checking plenty of important boxes, including strong coaching, efficiency on both ends and legitimate depth. While the Aggies may not feature a surefire NBA prospect, Mountain West Player of the Year Mason Falslev (16.1 points per game) and leading scorer MJ Collins Jr. (17.6) give them one of the most reliable scoring duos in the tournament.
Villanova brings plenty of firepower of its own. The Wildcats boast five players averaging double figures, led by Tyler Perkins at 13.7 points per game, making them one of the more balanced offensive teams in the field.
On paper, these teams mirror each other closely. Both rank inside the top 50 in offensive and defensive efficiency, top 110 in 3-point percentage, and top 110 in both offensive and defensive rebounding percentage.
The edge tilts slightly toward Utah State in two areas: offensive 2-point percentage and defensive turnover percentage. This matchup has all the ingredients to be one of Friday’s best. Villanova’s physical half-court defense will test Utah State’s disciplined, high-IQ offense.
As always in March, it comes down to style. Can the Aggies keep their rhythm and convert from the perimeter? Or will Villanova impose its physicality and disrupt Utah State’s flow? Something has to give. — Tobias Bass, staff editor
No. 6 Tennessee vs. No. 11 Miami (Ohio)
4:25 p.m. ET, TBS
America’s favorite Cinderella is still dancing. Miami (Ohio) punched its ticket with a First Four win over SMU on Wednesday, and now the RedHawks carry the hopes of upset lovers everywhere. The next test, however, is a serious one.
Tennessee boasts one of the nation’s most suffocating defenses (15th) and dominates the glass, ranking second in rebounding differential. That combination alone makes the Volunteers a nightmare matchup.
If Miami (Ohio) is going to keep this run alive, the formula is clear: let it fly. In Thursday’s win, the RedHawks attempted 41 3s and knocked down 16, with Eian Elmer leading the charge with six. The challenge? Tennessee was the best team in the SEC at defending the 3-point line.
Offensively, the Volunteers are powered by Ja’Kobi Gillespie (18.0 points per game) and future lottery pick Nate Ament (17.5), giving them a reliable one-two punch. The bench has been inconsistent, though, so foul trouble could become a factor.
While Miami’s 3-point barrage grabs headlines, the RedHawks are far from one-dimensional — they rank second in the country in 2-point percentage. Tennessee’s game plan will be simple: get physical, control the boards and disrupt Miami’s rhythm.
For the RedHawks, it comes down to composure and execution. Run your offense, knock down shots and finish possessions with rebounds. Easy enough, right? — Tobias Bass, staff editor
No. 8 Clemson vs. No. 9 Iowa
6:50 p.m. ET, TNT
Don’t expect to see 80 points either way in this game. You might not see 70, either.
Both teams are champions of slow-paced play, with both ranking below 320th in the nation in possessions per game. Clemson ranks 329th with only 67.2 possessions per game, while Iowa averages just 64.8, good for second-to-last (364th) out of the 365 Division I programs in the country.
Both the Tigers and Hawkeyes rank in the bottom half of their respective conferences in scoring. So, understandably, both deploy stifling defenses. Iowa is No. 1 in the Big Ten in scoring defense (66 points allowed per game), while Clemson ranks second (66.7 allowed) in the ACC, behind only top-seeded Duke. And both rank in the top 30 in KenPom in defensive rating.
Iowa senior guard Bennett Stirtz can provide enough scoring pop to be the difference. Despite his team not being an offensive juggernaut, Stirtz is the Big Ten’s fifth-leading scorer at 20.0 points per game. Clemson’s two leading scorers, RJ Godfrey (11.9 points per game) and Carter Welling (10.2), combine to average barely more than Stirtz.
If you’re a fan of guns-blazing offense, this one won’t be for you. Leave it to the basketball purists and disciples of hard-nosed defense. — Devon Henderson, staff writer
No. 7 UCLA vs. No. 10 UCF
7:25 p.m. ET, TBS
UCLA will rise and fall with the players it has healthy. In a 20-game stretch starting Jan. 1 and ending when forward Tyler Bilodeau (17.6 points per game) was injured against Michigan State in the Big Ten tournament quarterfinals, the Bruins had the nation’s No. 3 offense, according to CBS. Questions swirl on whether Bilodeau can return from the knee strain, though star guard Donovan Dent is expected to play after he went out with a right calf strain 10 minutes into the Big Ten semifinals.
Dent has been historically efficient down the stretch, with 78 assists to only six turnovers in his last eight games. His 13-to-1 assist-to-turnover ratio during that period has not been replicated by any NBA or Division I player in the past three decades, per OptaStats. This will also be the senior’s third foray into March Madness after playing in the Big Dance with New Mexico the previous two seasons.
That experience will come in handy against high-powered UCF, which boasts a top-40 offense in KenPom, but is making its first NCAA Tournament appearance in seven years.
Rebounding could be an issue for the Bruins. While UCF only ranks 83rd in the country in rebounds per game (37.2), UCLA is 318th at only 32.3. If the offenses stall out, the Knights may grab an edge via extra possessions. — Devon Henderson, staff writer
No. 4 Kansas vs. No. 13 California Baptist
9:45 p.m. ET, CBS
Watch out for the Lancers. March brings forth diamonds in the rough — legends who etch their names into the annals of basketball history, if only for a fleeting moment.
Think Jack Gohlke for Oakland, dropping 32 points to beat Kentucky in 2024. Think Doug Edert leading Saint Peter’s past, well, Kentucky in 2022 with 20 off the bench, and then beating Murray State and Purdue as well.
Get ready to learn about 5-foot-10 Cal Baptist superstar and WAC Player of the Year, Dominique Daniels Jr. The dynamic point guard averages 23.2 points per game, good for fifth in the country this season. Electric off the dribble with toughness and an ability to score at all three levels, Daniels is more than just a 3-point gunner. He makes just under two 3s a game, and he’ll attack the Jayhawks any way he can.
Dominique Daniels Jr. of the California Baptist Lancers celebrates defeating the Utah Valley Wolverines in the WAC championship game. (Candice Ward / Getty Images)
On the flip side, the world wants to know how many minutes Kansas will get out of its own superstar, potential No. 1 draft pick Darryn Peterson. The star guard played in 22 of Kansas’ 33 games this season and played less than 25 minutes in seven of them due to a myriad of injuries. However, he’s rounded into form of late, averaging 31 minutes and 19.2 points a night over the last seven games for the Jayhawks.
The problem is Kansas is 3-4 during that same span, including upset losses to Cincinnati and Arizona State. The blue blood is susceptible to being upset by a mid-major with a superstar scorer and nothing to lose. This will be an interesting one to watch. — Devon Henderson, staff writer
No. 7 Miami (FL) vs. No. 10 Missouri
10:10 p.m. ET, truTV
Miami ranks sixth in the ACC in rebounding, fifth in scoring, and at one point was on a 10-game winning streak. The Hurricanes deploy two strong forces down low in leading scorer Malik Reneau (6-9, 238 pounds, 18.8 points per game) and Ernest Udeh Jr. (6-11, 266 pounds). The Hurricanes are diligent in getting points in the paint. While they rank highly in scoring, they are dead last in the ACC in 3-point attempts per game at 18.9. Expect the Hurricanes to try to bully their way to the second round.
The problem is that the Tigers match Miami in size. Star senior Mark Mitchell leads the team in scoring (18.3), rebounds (5.3) and assists (3.6), and is 6-9, 230. Also roaming the Tigers’ paint is 7-footer Shawn Phillips Jr., who averages 1.5 blocks per game but only 5.1 rebounds.
Despite the size, the Tigers don’t rebound well (fourth-worst in SEC) and enter the tournament on a three-game losing streak. The Hurricanes will need to get more out of perimeter players Tre Donaldson and Shelton Henderson to outmatch Missouri.
Down low, it’s possible both teams effectively cancel each other out, so whichever team’s outside shooting settles in quicker will be the spark to put it over the edge. — Devon Henderson, staff writer
