Mountain West semifinals are set: Odds and breakdowns for the teams

The Mountain West is down to the final four teams for the conference’s automatic bid to the NCAA Tournament. New Mexico takes on Boise State in the first semifinal Friday night, and Utah State meets Colorado State to close out the night.

Each of the quarterfinals was decided by at least eight points. The Broncos are the only lower seed to win in the quarterfinals as they defeated San Diego State 62-52 Thursday in the 4-5 game. The top-seeded Lobos knocked off San José State 63-52. The Rams rallied past Nevada 67-59, and the Aggies topped UNLV 70-58.

So how do these four semifinalists stack up?

According to FanDuel, New Mexico is the favorite to take home the title at +200. The other three teams have identical odds at +280. The two semifinals are expected to be tight as New Mexico and Utah State are each favored by 1.5 points.

Earlier this week, ahead of the tournament, SB Nation polled fans about who will cut down the nets in Las Vegas, and the Lobos were even more heavy favorites. They received 71% of the vote with the second-seeded Rams in second at 19%. The Aztecs and Aggies split the remaining 10%.

New Mexico

UNM used a 16-2 run to close the first half of its quarterfinal game against San José State to turn a five-point deficit into a nine-point lead at the break. The advantage reached 15 in the second half and never dipped below six over the final 20 minutes.

Donovan Dent paced the regular-season champions with 25 points on 8-for-14 shooting and five assists. Nelly Junior Joseph recorded a monster double-double with 14 points and 18 rebounds (including eight offensive boards). Tru Washington rounded out the double-digit scorers with 11.

Richard Pitino’s club has won four straight and 12 of its last 14 with one of those two losses coming to Boise State, whom they will face off against tonight. The Lobos lead the Mountain West in scoring (81.6), good for 24th in the country.

Boise State

The Broncos are teetering on the bubble. In Joe Lunardi’s latest Bracketology, they are the first team out of the field of 68. One way to help their resume tremendously would be knocking off the Lobos in the semis to pick up a Quad-1 win. The two teams are back-to-back in the NET rankings (UNM – 42, BSU – 43).

Boise trailed SDSU by two points with nine minutes to play in the quarterfinals before ending the game on a 17-5 run. Four Broncos finished in double figures. Alvaro Cardenas paced the team with 16. Tyson Degenhart followed with 14 points and seven rebounds. Andrew Meadow posted 12 points, nine of which came in the second half. He also pulled down seven boards. Pearson Carmichael added 10.

Leon Rice’s club has the second stingiest defense in the league and the third best offense. It has won six of its last seven and split with the Lobos in the regular season with an eight-point win at home and a 19-point loss in Albuquerque.

Colorado State

Similar to the first two quarterfinals, CSU used a surge to pull away. The Rams led Nevada by just two points with four and a half minutes to play. A 10-2 spurt over the next three minutes built the lead to double figures with 90 seconds remaining. They held the Wolf Pack 26.9% shooting in the second half while knocking down 54.2% of their own shots.

Nique Clifford poured in a game-high 25 points while going 8-of-14 from the field and a perfect 8-for-8 at the line. He also pulled down 14 boards and was the only player with double-digit rebounds. Kyan Evans tallied 11 points, and Jaylen Crocker-Johnson chipped in 10.

Colorado State is surging as of late. It has won eight straight to claim the No. 2 seed at the tournament with the last loss coming at Utah State. During its win streak, CSU ranks 11th in all of Division I in BartTorvik ratings – ahead of Kentucky, Tennessee and St. John’s.

Utah State

Like the other semifinalists, the Aggies used one specific run to take control of their quarterfinal wins. USU used a 20-7 spurt across the first and second halves to build a 10-point lead early in the second. It limited UNLV to 23.6% shooting for the game.

Ian Martinez and Mason Falslev were the lone Aggies in double figures. Martinez notched 17 points and six rebounds, while Falslev had 15 points and nine boards. The bench played a big part in the win with 24 points, including nine each from Tucker Anderson and Karson Templin.

The Mountain West’s best team in the non-conference, USU struggled down the stretch. It lost two of three and three of six to close out the regular season. Jerrod Calhoun’s team knocked off CSU by eight at home in mid-February and suffered a 27-point defeat at Fort Collins on March 1.

The Mountain West semifinals are Friday night at 9:30 p.m. ET and midnight ET. The games will absolutely be worth the late night. After all, This Is March.