The NCAA Tournament has always been a time for underdogs and Cinderella stories to shine, but NIL and the transfer portal have quickly erased the madness from March.
This year marked the third straight season in which only one double-digit seed reached the Sweet 16 in the men’s tournament. Princeton defied the odds as a 15-seed in 2023, but the last two double-digit seeds to win two games in the NCAA Tournament were power conference programs in No. 11-seed NC State and No. 10-seed Arkansas. You can’t even call Arkansas a Cinderella this year, considering it has multiple NBA prospects on the roster and a legendary head coach, John Calipari, running the show.
Before these three seasons, at least two double-digit seeds reached the Sweet 16 in 26 of 36 tournaments since the field expanded to 64 teams in 1985, per Dan Gartland of Sports Illustrated. It’s no coincidence this trend is popping up now.
The NCAA started allowing athletes to profit from their name, image and likeness (NIL) in 2021, and the transfer portal has exploded since then. The second mid-major players start showcasing their ability to perform at a high level, the NIL offers from major conference schools start rolling in. At that point, it’s impossible to say no to more money, a bigger platform and an opportunity to compete for a national championship.
Take 2023 Florida Atlantic University, for example. The Owls made a miraculous run to the Final Four as a No. 9 seed, only to lose their top four scorers and head coach to larger programs. Dusty May and Vlad Goldin went to Michigan, Johnell Davis left for Arkansas, Alijah Martin bailed for Florida and Nick Boyd transferred to San Diego State. FAU could’ve been a national title contender in 2025, but it got gutted by NIL and the transfer portal and missed the NCAA Tournament.
And what about the teams in this year’s Sweet 16? Purdue is the only team still alive, with five starters who all started their careers at their current school. Three teams — Michigan, Kentucky and Arizona — have starting fives entirely made of transfers.
