Prediction market Kalshi notified a federal regulator on Wednesday that it was self-certifying markets on whether college athletes will enter the transfer portal. While the company says it has no immediate plans to begin offering trading on the portal, the decision still drew sharp criticism from the NCAA.
In a filing submitted to the Commodity Futures Trading Commission, Kalshi wrote that contracts on the transfer portal will initially be listed Dec. 17 and that it intends to list such markets daily. Transfer portal markets were not appearing on the site as of 8 p.m. ET Wednesday.
“We certify markets all the time that we do not end up listing,” a Kalshi company spokesperson told ESPN.
According to Kalshi’s filing, the markets will include NCAA Division I football and basketball players and will be settled when a player publicly announces their intent to enter or officially enters the transfer portal. Statements on social media from players or announcements from agents or athletic departments constitute valid announcements, according to the filing.
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It’s the latest provocative move by Kalshi, which has emerged as a leading prediction market exchange while also fighting multiple legal battles with state gambling regulators and pushback from some sports leagues.
“The NCAA vehemently opposes college sports prediction markets,” NCAA president Charlie Baker said in a statement to ESPN. “It is already bad enough that student-athletes face harassment and abuse for lost bets on game performance, and now Kalshi wants to offer bets on their transfer decisions and status. This is absolutely unacceptable and would place even greater pressure on student-athletes while threatening competition integrity and recruiting processes.
“Their decisions and future should not be gambled with, especially in an unregulated marketplace that does not follow any rules of legitimate sports betting operators.”
Kalshi prohibits users with material nonpublic information from trading and says it has “extensive surveillance systems, both in-house and third-party, that monitor for suspicious activity.” Kalshi has a partnership with Integrity Compliance 360, a firm that monitors the betting market for abnormalities. Kalshi said it will refer cases to the CFTC for enforcement if it detects prohibited activity.
Gambling industry trade site Ingame.com first reported Kalshi’s filing with the CFTC.
Prediction markets allow users to trade on the yes/no outcomes of events, including sports. They operate under the oversight of the CFTC, which gives them access to all 50 states. In contrast, traditional sportsbooks are regulated by states and can operate only within the jurisdictions that have passed sports betting laws. Sportsbook Fanatics has launched a prediction market, and DraftKings and FanDuel have announced their plans to enter the prediction market space.
The NCAA and NFL have criticized prediction markets for the types of markets they offer. The NHL and UFC, however, have partnered with prediction market companies such as Kalshi and Polymarket.
The NCAA transfer portal for football is open for two weeks in January. The transfer portal window for men’s basketball is open for roughly a month, from late March through mid-April.
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