You didn’t think we’d leave you hanging, did you? As promised, we’re following up our quick-and-dirty list of the 10 likeliest upsets with deeper analysis of every first-round game with Bracket Breaker implications (i.e a difference of at least five seeds). For the uninitiated, we look for clear statistical markers between underdogs and favorites that have historically helped predict potential upsets before they happen. As always, it pays to read about how our projection model, Slingshot, works before diving into the analysis.
First up …
East Region
No. 6 Louisville Cardinals vs. No. 11 South Florida Bulls
Upset chance: 28 percent
The Bulls are a great team to watch if you like to see strategy in action. They’ve got fast big men who crash the boards, led by forward Izaiyah Nelson (15.7 points and 9.6 rebounds per game). Their offensive rebounding (38.2 percent of missed shots, ranking seventh in the nation, up from 242nd last year!) leads to point-blank shots (average distance of just 4.0 feet on 2-point shots, third-closest in D1). During their current 11-game winning streak, USF has taken nearly seven more attempts from the field per game than their opponents, including bunches of putbacks and dunks.
But Louisville hits the glass, too, and can also shoot from anywhere. With an offense scoring 124.1 adjusted points per 100 possessions and a top-25 defense, our model sees the Cardinals as one of the 10 best teams in the country. They’ve lost three games by five or fewer points in the past month — and haven’t won such a game all season — but that bad luck shouldn’t lead you to underestimate them as severely as the selection committee did in handing Louisville a No. 6 seed. This is particularly true if standout freshman point guard Mikel Brown Jr. can make it back from an injured … back.
Further, in this matchup, the Bulls’ speed may not help them. USF plays at the 15th-quickest pace in the country, which can be dangerous against a high-octane opponent. So there’s upset potential here for sure, but if you’re betting this game, be aware that markets seem to be catching on to South Florida (+185) without fully appreciating the Cardinals.
No. 5 St. John’s Red Storm vs. No. 12 Northern Iowa Panthers
Upset chance: 24.5 percent
We often preach that a top seed needs to build possessions to help ensure that one off-shooting night doesn’t knock it out of the tournament. St. John’s has operated that way as a matter of survival all season, because so many of its nights involve poor shooting. This year, the Red Storm have had games where they shot 28 percent against Providence, 33 percent against Kentucky, and 35 percent against DePaul, not to mention their notorious 11-for-56 performance vs. UConn last month. The Johnnies have compensated by hitting the boards (ranking 28th in offensive rebounding percentage) and protecting the ball. So while they’re making just 51.6 percent of 2s (ranking 190th) and 33.3 percent of 3s (ranking 216th), they are 44th in offensive efficiency, and have a Safety Rating in our model of 94. But it makes sense that, even though Slingshot loves their peripheral stats, they don’t rate even higher.
Northern Iowa reminds us of the old joke about a team that plays so slow, you could go out and hold up a bank at the beginning of its game, get arrested, convicted and sent to jail, and be out on parole in time to see the finish. The Panthers play at an adjusted pace of just 62.3 possessions per game (ranking 363rd), forcing opponents into a lumbering, slumbering slog. It’s not a style that Slingshot recognized as belonging to a particular underdog cluster, but it’s very effective. Northern Iowa has been forced to play to more than 70 possessions in only four non-overtime games all year. Bottom line: St. John’s is well-equipped to play as a giant, but nobody runs away from UNI.
No. 4 Kansas Jayhawks vs. No. 13 Cal Baptist Lancers
Upset chance: 14.2 percent
Last week, we wrote that Kansas has some key flaws that leaves it with only an 86 percent Safety Rating against a generic underdog. Apparently Cal Baptist is as generic as it gets, because the Jayhawks have that same 86 percent chance of avoiding an upset in this first-round matchup. But let’s focus on the other 14 percent, shall we?
There is a very specific way that favorites built like Kansas can lose – and have lost – tournament games like this one. Anyone can have a bad shooting game. That much is obvious. But the Jayhawks are more prone to that sort of outing than a typical top team, as they rank just 172nd in effective field goal percentage.
Safe giants/favorite tend to have to have two fallback options to protect them in those situations: offensive rebounding and forcing turnovers. That gives them extra possessions to make up for the shots that they miss. But Kansas only forces turnovers on 14 percent of opponents’ possessions (337th in the country), and grabs offensive rebounds at a below-average rate (29.5 percent).
That’s especially troubling, because Cal Baptist’s greatest weapon is its glasswork. The Lancers rank 11th in the country in offensive boards and 45th in defensive rebounding. Their rotation includes three players who are 6-foot-10 or taller, so Kansas won’t be able to bully them inside the way they might against another mid-major. Cal Baptist’s offense is troubling, to say the least: The Lancers rank 302nd in effective field goal percentage, and don’t embrace the variance game, as they only take 32 percent of their shots from 3-point range. So their best bet is a slow, grind-it-out game, where they get enough second-chance points to compensate for their own poor shooting. In other words, if you pick the Lancers, you might want to invest in the under as well.
No. 3 Michigan St. Spartans vs. No. 14 North Dakota St. Bison
Upset chance: 12.1 percent
Slingshot’s computation includes an examination of similar tournament matchups from the past, based on teams’ statistical profiles. And would you believe that the game most similar to this one occurred 10 years ago and also featured the Spartans? They were seeded second in 2016, but lost 90-81 to Giddy Potts, Reggie Upshaw Jr. and the feisty, No. 15 seed Middle Tennessee. Granted, the only common links between that team and this one are Tom Izzo and this angry fellow, but it’s worth noting that three of the 10 most similar games ended in upsets.
This Michigan State team has a better buffer against underdogs because it is an elite rebounding team, leading the country in defensive rebounding rate and ranking fourth on the offensive glass. That will be strength on strength, as the Bison – led by 6-foot-9 Treyson Anderson and 6-foot-10 Noah Feddersen – only allow offensive boards on 25.7 percent of opponents’ shots, while grabbing 33.6 percent of their own misses. They also force turnovers at an above-average rate, and that has been a problem for the Spartans: Despite the superlative play of point guard Jeremy Fears, they turn the ball over on 17.1 percent of possessions.
The Bison have five players who shoot better than 36 percent from 3-point range on significant volume, so if one or two get hot, this could be a ballgame. The Spartans are still a far better team, and the Bison played the country’s 282nd-ranked schedule, which included the likes of Jamestown, Minnesota Crookston and the College of St. Scholastica. But this isn’t a gimme for the Spartans; the Bison have some stampede potential.
No. 2 UConn Huskies vs. No. 15 Furman Paladins
Upset chance: 7 percent
Given that trio of Furman professors helped build our upset prediction model, this is the underdog of choice for our academic colleagues. Unfortunately for them, the Paladins bring to mind an old Bill James quote about an outfielder named Tony Scott: “He plays hard, but not too well.”
Furman, a longtime sharpshooting squad, is as game as ever to keep firing away from 3-point range. The Paladins launched 80 3s in their exciting three-game run through the SoCon Tournament. But they hit just a third of them and they’re sloppy with the ball, none of which adds much to a below-average power rating that ranks 187th in the country. UConn has a Safety Rating of 94, and the Huskies are not likely to follow up their loss in the Big East final by taking their foot off the gas here.
No. 1 Duke Blue Devils vs. No. 16 Siena Saints
Upset chance: 6 percent
Duke, as strange as it may sound, appears to be somewhat overlooked, despite earning the tournament’s overall No. 1 seed. This is obviously due to the injuries to two starters that left them with a seven-man rotation in the ACC tournament. The Blue Devils hope to get center Patrick Ngongba back this week, but if they hope for Caleb Foster to return this season, they’d likely need to reach the Final Four. And even then it would be a longshot.
That said, they still won the ACC tournament without those two key cogs, and Slingshot doesn’t see much of an issue against Siena. The Blue Devils’ statistical profile looks like Slingshot tried to engineer an upset-proof squad. They dominate the glass at both ends, force an above-average rate of turnovers and absolutely clamp down on defense (while casually sporting a top-four offense, too). Again, those numbers aren’t the same without Ngongba and Foster, but it will take a team better than Gerry McNamara’s crew — which played exactly one team ranked better than 139th on KenPom.com (Indiana), losing by 21 — to test Duke.
We’re cranking through the other regions as you read this, so refresh later as we add the remaining first-round matchups. Up next: The South Region.
Kevin Hutson, Liz Bouzarth and John Harris of Furman University provided research assistance for this article.
