If you care about March Madness upsets, you need to start spotting potential Cinderellas now, and we’re here to help. With conference tournaments getting underway, this is the time to scout Davids across the country and assess their slingshots. And while it’s preliminary, we already have some big news: There are a lot of long shots packing powerful Goliath-killing punches out there this year — far more than in 2024 or 2023.
For the past two decades, we have been using analytics to predict NCAA Tournament upsets. Using our statistical model, Slingshot, developed with the help of the Furman University Mathematics Department, we examine matchups from past tournaments to isolate the factors crucial to underdog victories. Then we identify emerging longshots who carry those traits.
We’re beginning with this rundown of mid-majors you should root for now if you want to see as many upsets as possible in the second half of this month. We’ll rank them by their Underdog Rating, which is the percentage chance Slingshot gives a squad of beating an average tournament opponent that’s at least five seeds higher.
Drake Bulldogs
Missouri ValleyUnderdog Rating: 58.9
Drake is single-handedly proving that the difference between Division I and Division II isn’t nearly as vast as you’d think. First-year coach Ben McCollum won four D-II national championships at Northwest Missouri State, and with the help of three key players from his old squad, he hasn’t missed a beat at Drake. The Bulldogs are 27-3, including 17-3 in the Missouri Valley Conference, the top mark in the league.
Even better than the Bulldogs’ 27 wins? The way they get them — at least from Slingshot’s perspective. They rank among the nation’s top 21 teams in forcing turnovers, offensive rebounding and defensive rebounding, which gives them a massive edge in possessions. Drake also plays at the nation’s slowest pace, which makes that possession advantage even more pronounced. After all, in a game where each team has the ball less often than usual, each trip up or down the floor matters more.
Add it all up, and Drake profiles as an epic underdog: Their Underdog Rating is nearly twice as high as any team that made last year’s field as an 11-seed or lower. Drake will be a nightmare for any opponent … well, maybe except for Lamar.
Utah State Aggies
Mountain WestUnderdog Rating: 54.0
Bracketologists have the Aggies pegged around a 9-seed right now (The Athletic has them slotted as a No. 10), meaning they would have to do bracket-breaking damage in the second round. And they definitely have the tools to threaten a top seed. Led by the backcourt of Ian Martinez (17 points per game) and Mason Falslev (14.6 ppg, 6.1 rebounds per game, 3.7 assists per game), the Aggies rank 16th in the nation in offensive efficiency. They score from inside and out, take care of the ball and get a large number of their own misses (33.8 percent offensive rebound rate).
Utah State’s defense isn’t nearly as good, but its one strength is exactly what Slingshot likes to see: The Aggies force turnovers on more than 20 percent of opponents’ possessions. A good number of those are live-ball turnovers, as their 12.5 percent steal rate ranks 29th in the country. They got enough stops to hand St. Mary’s one of its four losses, which bodes well against potential NCAA foes.
GO DEEPER
Saint Mary’s sports the look of a March Madness Cinderella in the making
UC San Diego Tritons
Big WestUnderdog Rating: 52.5
Four years after moving from D-II to the Big West, the Tritons are finally eligible for the NCAA Tournament. And as absurd as the rules are to require such an extended probation, at least coach Eric Olen put the time to excellent use. Scouring his old stomping grounds across the country, he brought key players to UC San Diego from smaller programs as far-flung as Azusa, Hawai’i-Hilo and Lynn. And he’s built a program that has gone from 10 wins to 21 to 26 (and counting) since 2023 and now ranks 53rd in our basic power ratings (and 35th in NET).
If our model knew a florist, it would be sending bouquets to Olen and point guard Hayden Gray, who leads the country with a 6.2 percent steal percentage. Keyed by Gray, the Tritons seize the ball on 23.5 percent of opponent possessions while surrendering it on only 13.4 percent of their own, giving them a historically massive turnover advantage. Their disruptive defense forces opponents the spend an average of 18.3 seconds on each possession (ranking 326th). They also launch 3s on almost half of their shots and hit 36.9 percent of their long-range attempts (ranking 41st).
Bottom line: This is a good team made better by precisely the kind of characteristics (and analytical smarts) that have boosted past Cinderellas. Get to know them now, and root for them in the Big West Tournament while half your fellow bracket-fillers are still confusing them with San Diego State.
VCU Rams
Atlantic 10Underdog Rating: 46.9
Ryan Odom may not be part of the Shaka Smart coaching tree, but his VCU team excels at generating extra possessions in much the same way as Smart’s teams in the program’s glory years.
The Rams rank 25th in the nation in forcing turnovers (21.1 percent) and grab offensive rebounds on 36.5 percent of their missed shots. They add to their variance by taking tons of 3s (47 percent of field-goal attempts, 27th in the nation) while limiting opponents’ long-range shots (35 percent). In other words, the Rams get more bites at the apple, and when you factor in a defense that ranks 20th in adjusted efficiency, you can see why they are 25-5 and very much in the at-large conversation if they don’t win the A-10 Tournament.
McNeese Cowboys
SouthlandUnderdog Rating: 38.5
Slingshot thought the Cowboys were the friskiest double-digit seed in last year’s tournament, and they promptly got stomped by Gonzaga. But our model isn’t backing off after getting burned once; this year, McNeese has an even higher Underdog Rating.
The Cowboys (25-6) went 19-1 in the Southland Conference and lost two tight early-season games against SEC teams: by eight against Alabama and by three against Mississippi State. Most remarkably, they’ve put together this run of success without transfer guard Alyn Breed, who scored 35 points in two games (including 17 against Alabama) and then injured his knee. He has yet to return.
In his place, coach Will Wade relies on a balanced attack: Seven Cowboys average between 7.1 and 12.6 points per game. Our model loves their emphasis on forcing turnovers (21.8 percent of opponents’ possessions, 17th in the country) and offensive rebounding (35.7 percent, 28th). And while they take a below-average number of 3s, they hit them at an above-average clip (35.4 percent), meaning McNeese may have some latent “Chameleon” ability to up their variance when needed against a better foe.
North Texas Mean Green
AmericanUnderdog Rating: 30.1
Four years ago under Grant McCasland, North Texas pulled a huge overtime upset against Purdue in a No. 13 over No. 4 NCAA Tournament shocker. And while McCasland moved on to Texas Tech in 2024, Ross Hodge has kept the team’s basic formula intact: Play at a crawl, stay in every game, build possessions and contest the perimeter. The Mean Green lost nine players this season, including their top six scorers, and started 6-3. But they have jelled into a group that does many things well.
North Texas ranks 78th in the country in offensive rebounding percentage and 48th in forcing turnovers. They don’t take many 3s — though they’ve boosted their rate against their toughest opponents — but hit 36.1 percent of their bombs, ranking 65th. They’re holding opponents to shooting only 29.6 percent from long range, ranking ninth. And helped by their verrry deliberate pace at both ends (60.4 possessions per game, ranking 362nd), they haven’t lost a game by more than five points since Thanksgiving weekend.
The Mean Green have to get by Memphis, whom our model sees as a better team but worse tournament underdog, in the AAC conference tournament. But if North Texas makes the big dance, it will be a very tough out.
Troy Trojans
Sun BeltUnderdog Rating: 27.1
Every now and then, Slingshot will spot a team that excels at certain key aspects of dragon-slaying, almost to the exclusion of doing anything else well. (When you’ve got a spare sec, check out the stats for Eastern Kentucky in 2014.) Led by point guard Tayton Conerway, who’s second in the nation with a 5.8 percent steal percentage, the Trojans play aggressive perimeter defense, force live-ball turnovers on 14 percent of opponent possessions (ranking seventh), push the ball in transition, hoist 3s on more than 45 percent of their attempts, and crash the boards. Grabbing 39 percent of their own missed shots, Troy has the fourth-best offensive rebounding percentage in the country; who saw that coming?
This is a team that knows how to maximize the quantity and value of its scoring opportunities, which is exactly what a David needs to do in a win-or-go-home scenario. Last week, Troy, one of four teams to share the regular-season championship in the Sun Belt, beat conference foe Texas State despite shooting an awful 5-25 from beyond the arc. How? By amassing 18 offensive rebounds, 11 steals (five by Conerway) and 58 total field goal attempts, nine more than the Bobcats.
This is also a team with serious red flags: Troy is sloppy with the ball, committing turnovers on more than 20 percent of possessions, absent on the defensive glass, and couldn’t hit an open 3 with a heat-seeking missile if you set the net on fire (30.5 percent 3P%, ranking 334th). But our model has taught us not to overlook the scruffiest of underdogs. Conerway really is someone to watch. And given the right matchup, he and the Trojans could drive a Goliath crazy.
Samford Bulldogs
SouthernUnderdog Rating: 20.0
Speaking of driving opponents crazy, Bucky Ball is back! (Though at a slightly lower volume.)
Last year, we were early to sing hosannas to coach Bucky McMillan, who has brought a ferociously high-octane style of play to the Bulldogs. Samford pressures foes more or less continuously, forcing turnovers and creating open shots. Last season, that led to a 29-6 record, a SoCon championship and a 4-point first-round loss to No. 4 seed Kansas. This time around has proven more difficult: Samford lost big man Achor Achor to Kansas State, shed some of its personality when 5-foot-8 PG Dallas Graziani left for D-II Nova Southeastern, and has faced stiffer competition in the conference, where the Bulldogs are seeded just fourth.
But that pressure still forces turnovers on 21.8 percent of opponent possessions, the 18th-best rate in the nation. And Samford still bombs away, taking nearly 47 percent of their shots from downtown, and shoots the lights out (37 percent on 3s, ranking 37th). Slingshot says the Bulldogs’ combination of underdog traits boosts their chances of beating a higher seed in a tournament setting by more than 10 points per 100 possessions — by far the most of any SoCon contender.
(Photo of Drake’s Bennett Stirtz: Michael Allio / Icon Sportswire via Getty Images)
