Way, way, way too early Mountain West Conference predictions

As we look toward the end of the Mountain West as we know it (you can read a bit about that here), we here at Mid-Major Madness decided to take a shot at doing a little way, way, way too early prediction for the 2025-26 season.

In the latest SBNation Reacts poll, San Diego State was picked as the early frontrunner with 42% of the votes, followed by Utah State (23%), Boise State (19%) and New Mexico (16%).

That isn’t a bad list, and if take a gander at the FanDuel odds, you can snag Colorado State and Boise State at +50,000, New Mexico at +30,000, and Utah State and San Diego State come in at +20,000 odds to win the 2026 NCAA men’s title (long-shot odds but hey, you never know).

With all that said, let’s get into some fun stuff as basically each team is reloading its roster during Portal Season.

Way, way, way too early Mountain West predictions

1: San Diego State

Last season: 21-10, 14-6 (tied for fourth; lost in NCAA Tournament’s First Four)

This is a pretty big “if,” but San Diego State has been a workhorse in the league, finishing fifth and tied for fourth in the past two seasons since reaching the national semis just a short time ago. Now, the “if” in question is this: Does Miles Byrd (12.3 ppg, 4.4 rpg, 2.7 apg) stay in the NBA Draft or come back?

If he does come back, the all-league wing joins a team that is expected to bring back MWC freshman of the year and defensive player of then year Magoon Gwath, and one that added Louisiana Tech transfer Sean Newman Jr. (9.9 ppg, 7.9 apg), who is expected to provide high-level creation at the point.

2: New Mexico

Last season: 27-8, 17-3 (first place; lost in NCAA Tournament’s second round)

Out: Richard Pitino

In: Eric Olen

OK, this is definitely a “hear me out.”

Yes, Richard Pitino bailed to Xavier. Yes, the entire roster left.

But, consider this: Eric Olen is the head coach and just led UC San Diego to a monster season in the Big West and a near upset against Michigan in the 5-12 game of the NCAA Tournament. The roster is pretty bare, but I am a big believer in Olen. Don’t count out the Lobos yet.

3: Utah State

Last season: 26-8, 15-5 (third place; lost in NCAA Tournament’s first round)

Utah State might be the only program with any sort of real holdovers from a season ago. Jerrod Calhoun did not follow the USU tradition of using Logan, Utah, as a stepping-stone gig, and all-league player Mason Falslev (15 ppg, 6.3 rpg, 3.7 apg, 2.3 spg) has not entered the portal as of writing this. If he stays, the team would have possibly the preseason favorite for League POTY. But if he goes, the Aggies might be in trouble.

4: Boise State

Last season: 26-11, 14-6 (tied for fourth; lost in College Basketball Crown’s semifinals)

Say it with me now: “Boise State should have made the NCAA Tournament over North Carolina.”

Tyson Degenhart is gone, which means Leon Rice needs to find a way to replicate and replace that production. Will it be remade in the aggregate, or will a player pop? There are contenders, such as Andrew Meadow (12.6 ppg, 4.2 rpg) and Javan Buchanan (9.6 ppg, 3.8 rpg), but who’s to say. It feels safe to expect Rice and Co. to be a 20-win team as usual.

5: Colorado State

Last season: 26-10, 16-4 (second; lost in NCAA Tournament’s second round)

Out: Niko Medved

In: Ali Farokhmanesh

Home-run hire by Colorado State. The Rams lost key talent in the portal and graduation (Nique Clifford, you will live forever), but did get a potential haul in the portal if guys translate.

Marist’s Josh Pascarelli (15.9 ppg, 3.6 rpg, 2.3 apg), Virginia Tech’s Brandon Rechsteiner (7.0 ppg, 2.8 apg) and some four-star pedigree in Carey Booth (Illinois) and Jase Butler (Washington) make for an interesting first term for the Ali “Kansas Killer” Farokhmanesh.

6: Nevada

Last season: 17-16, 8-12 (seventh)

Steve Alford and his hatred of bats isn’t enough to hope for much in Reno, but a new swanky arena that is long in the works is. But sadly we are aways off from that reality.

The Wolf Pack brought in a dynamo scorer from the JUCO ranks in Vaughn Weems, who dropped 26.7 ppg at North Idaho College a season ago. If his scoring translates and Fresno State transfer Elijah Price (10.5 ppg, 8.3 rpg, 1.3 spg, 1.3 bpg) excels in his new home, Nevada might surprise.

7: San Jose State

Last season: 15-20, 7-13 (eighth)

This one feels more about the coach than anything else. Tim Miles is as good a coach as any in the league shy of Brian Dutcher in terms of getting the most out of a roster.

But, we need to admit that is going to be tough with essentially the entire roster gone portalling and uncertainty ahead.

8: Wyoming

Last season: 12-20, 5-15 (ninth)

Sundance Wicks is another of those guys who is a helluva coach, but he was late to the party before 2024-25 getting the job in May just under a year ago. If Wicks can work some of the magic he had in Green Bay, look for some improvement out of the Pokes.

9: UNLV

Last season: 18-15, 11-9 (sixth)

Out: Kevin Krueger

In: Josh Pastner

My theme for this little prediction seemed to lean heavy into new coaches performing well in their new roles. This is not one of those choices.

Pastner has a long road ahead of him if he wants to bring UNLV back to any sort of relevancy in the west coast hoops world.

10. Fresno State

Last season: 6-26, 2-18 (10th)

Fresno State had a scandal-ridden season, and zero players return from last season’s roster. Nowhere but up!

10. Air Force

Last season: 4-28, 1-19 (11th)

Look, Air Force just had its worst season ever so maybe the pilots should be above Fresno State. At this point it is hard to parse which will do worse.