We’ve talked about who is and isn’t returning. We’ve talked about who might have gotten a few too many (or not enough) bounces last season. We’ve talked about the effect coaching changes might have. Now there’s only one thing left to do: Rank college football teams for 2026!
Below are this season’s initial SP+ projections. In addition to the rankings of every FBS team (overall, offense, defense and special teams), we’ll look at conference breakdowns and how SP+ matches up with the eyeball test in terms of which teams seem to be overrated and which could be underrated at this early stage. Indiana predictably finished last season No. 1, and the Hoosiers remain a top-five presence, but two other well-stocked, well-funded Big Ten foes lead the way to start 2026.
As a reminder, SP+ is a tempo- and opponent-adjusted measure of college football efficiency. It is a predictive measure of the most sustainable and predictable aspects of football, not a résumé ranking. Along those same lines, these projections aren’t intended to be a guess at what the AP Top 25 will look like at the end of the season. These are simply early offseason power rankings based on the information we have been able to gather.
Editor’s Picks
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I now base preseason projections on four primary factors, weighted by their predictiveness:
1. Returning production. The returning production numbers are based on rosters I have updated as much as possible to account for transfers and attrition. Combine last year’s SP+ ratings and adjustments based on current returning production numbers, and you’re pretty far down the projections road.
2. Recent history. Using a chunk of information from previous seasons gives us a good measure of overall program health, even in this era of wild swings in quality. It still stands to reason that a team that has played well for only one year is less likely to duplicate that effort than a team that has been good — and has likely spent bigger on its roster — for years on end (and vice versa).
3. Recent recruiting. This piece informs us of the caliber of a team’s potential replacements (and/or new stars) in the lineup. It is determined by both the past few years of recruiting rankings and the quality of incoming transfers, though as you might have predicted while watching Indiana surge to the national title last season, this doesn’t carry nearly the weight that it once did. A decade or so ago, this piece made up about 20-25% of the preseason formula. Now it’s about 1-2%. That’s pretty incredible, isn’t it?
4. Coaching change effects. I referenced this in a recent piece. As it turns out, comparing last season’s output to a 20-year SP+ baseline gives us a pretty good idea of what’s going to happen when a team changes coaches (and/or coordinators). If you underachieved to an historic degree, like Oklahoma State did last season, a change is likely to bring with it significant improvement. (That’s doubly true when the new coach brings loads of high-productivity transfers with him, as OSU’s Eric Morris did.) And on the flip side, if you overachieved significantly against history, as Morris’ North Texas team did in 2025, you’re likely to take a pretty significant hit when the head coach leaves (along with most of his star talent). Adding this to the list of projection factors allows me to make SP+ a bit more nimble in an era when fortunes can change significantly with coaching changes.
With transfers increasing so dramatically each season, figuring out the right mix of the above factors is a bit of a moving target. But I’m pretty happy with the results below. I will update these numbers in August, but for now, let’s establish the 2026 hierarchy.
Initial 2026 SP+ rankings
Here are the full rankings, now featuring 138 teams with the addition of North Dakota State (72nd) and Sacramento State (130th).
SP+ rankings
TeamSP+Off. SP+Def. SP+ST SP+1. Ohio State31.840.6 (2)8.8 (1)0.1 (67)2. Oregon28.340.7 (1)12.6 (3)0.3 (50)3. Notre Dame25.840.2 (3)14.6 (9)0.3 (47)4. Georgia25.538.2 (5)13.3 (5)0.6 (3)5. Indiana24.537.4 (9)13.5 (6)0.5 (22)6. Texas23.737.6 (7)14.3 (8)0.4 (31)7. Texas Tech23.137.6 (8)14.7 (11)0.2 (54)8. Miami21.034.4 (12)13.7 (7)0.3 (42)9. Texas A&M20.337.3 (10)16.7 (14)-0.3 (99)10. LSU20.232.5 (21)12.5 (2)0.2 (53)11. Alabama18.231.3 (32)12.6 (4)-0.4 (109)12. Oklahoma17.231.6 (27)14.7 (10)0.4 (33)13. USC16.837.7 (6)20.5 (29)-0.3 (100)14. Michigan16.132.8 (20)16.2 (13)-0.5 (113)15. Tennessee16.038.7 (4)23.0 (50)0.4 (34)16. Ole Miss15.935.0 (11)19.7 (25)0.7 (1)17. Penn St.15.733.6 (14)18.6 (23)0.6 (6)18. BYU15.533.3 (16)18.1 (20)0.3 (45)19. Florida14.930.2 (39)15.9 (12)0.5 (17)20. Missouri14.832.2 (24)16.9 (15)-0.5 (118)21. Washington14.532.4 (22)17.6 (19)-0.3 (96)22. Iowa13.630.3 (38)17.3 (17)0.6 (10)23. Clemson12.829.5 (48)17.0 (16)0.3 (41)24. S. Carolina12.129.9 (44)18.4 (21)0.5 (19)25. Utah11.933.0 (18)21.1 (34)0.0 (74)26. Auburn11.228.4 (55)17.5 (18)0.3 (51)27. Louisville11.030.6 (36)19.7 (26)0.2 (55)28. SMU10.931.9 (25)20.7 (32)-0.4 (104)29. Kansas St.10.433.1 (17)23.0 (49)0.3 (49)30. Arizona10.231.5 (29)20.8 (33)-0.5 (119)31. Vanderbilt10.033.4 (15)24.1 (56)0.6 (7)32. Va. Tech9.431.1 (34)21.5 (38)-0.2 (89)33. Illinois9.331.5 (28)22.7 (44)0.4 (30)34. TCU9.131.3 (31)21.9 (40)-0.2 (87)35. Florida St.8.829.7 (45)20.6 (30)-0.3 (94)36. Houston8.231.3 (30)22.8 (45)-0.4 (101)37. Nebraska7.729.2 (49)21.5 (39)0.1 (69)38. Oklahoma St.7.130.0 (42)23.4 (52)0.5 (26)39. Boise State6.829.9 (43)22.8 (46)-0.3 (93)40. Virginia6.626.3 (63)19.9 (27)0.2 (58)41. Pittsburgh6.530.2 (40)23.8 (53)0.1 (60)42. Arizona St.6.428.2 (57)21.2 (37)-0.6 (129)43. Ga. Tech6.028.8 (53)23.4 (51)0.6 (11)44. Duke5.732.8 (19)27.5 (81)0.4 (36)45. Minnesota5.225.3 (71)19.5 (24)-0.5 (125)46. UCLA5.129.0 (52)23.9 (54)0.0 (71)47. Arkansas5.034.1 (13)29.3 (91)0.3 (44)48. NC State4.930.7 (35)25.3 (64)-0.4 (103)49. Northwestern4.624.5 (78)20.4 (28)0.5 (29)50. Cincinnati4.529.6 (46)25.4 (65)0.3 (46)51. Baylor4.532.2 (23)28.3 (87)0.6 (2)52. Miss. St.3.930.1 (41)26.7 (76)0.5 (21)53. Kentucky3.825.0 (75)21.2 (36)0.0 (75)54. N. Carolina3.824.5 (80)21.1 (35)0.4 (32)55. Maryland3.826.1 (65)22.7 (43)0.3 (39)56. California3.729.2 (50)25.2 (62)-0.3 (95)57. Kansas3.729.0 (51)25.9 (70)0.6 (9)58. Wake Forest3.624.2 (83)20.7 (31)0.0 (78)59. UNLV2.831.2 (33)28.4 (89)0.1 (66)60. UCF2.324.5 (79)22.1 (41)-0.1 (83)61. Wisconsin1.820.6 (106)18.5 (22)-0.3 (97)62. Rutgers1.830.4 (37)28.7 (90)0.1 (68)63. Navy1.127.8 (58)26.9 (77)0.2 (56)64. Iowa State1.022.9 (94)22.4 (42)0.5 (27)65. Colorado0.926.3 (64)24.9 (57)-0.5 (116)66. W. Virginia0.826.3 (62)25.6 (66)0.1 (63)67. Michigan St.0.426.7 (61)25.9 (69)-0.4 (105)68. New Mexico-0.525.3 (68)26.4 (73)0.6 (13)69. Syracuse-0.723.9 (85)25.0 (59)0.4 (35)70. Memphis-1.128.3 (56)30.0 (95)0.5 (18)71. SDSU-1.323.1 (93)25.0 (60)0.6 (5)72. NDSU-1.424.4 (82)25.8 (67)0.0 (76)73. UTSA-1.529.5 (47)31.2 (102)0.1 (59)74. Boston Coll.-1.525.4 (67)27.4 (80)0.5 (28)75. Stanford-1.922.7 (97)24.0 (55)-0.6 (128)76. ECU-2.024.2 (84)26.0 (71)-0.2 (84)77. JMU-2.125.0 (76)26.7 (75)-0.4 (102)78. Fresno St.-2.320.6 (105)22.9 (47)0.0 (79)79. Air Force-2.425.3 (70)27.7 (83)0.1 (65)80. USF-2.827.5 (59)30.1 (98)-0.3 (91)81. Miami-OH-2.919.5 (111)22.9 (48)0.5 (16)82. Purdue-2.923.8 (86)27.4 (79)0.6 (4)83. Army-3.024.5 (81)27.6 (82)0.1 (64)84. Hawaii-3.925.3 (69)29.8 (93)0.6 (8)85. Wash. St.-5.319.9 (110)25.1 (61)-0.1 (81)86. WKU-5.325.2 (73)31.0 (101)0.5 (24)87. Tulane-5.522.2 (99)28.3 (86)0.6 (14)88. ODU-5.820.2 (109)25.3 (63)-0.7 (134)89. Texas St.-5.931.8 (26)37.8 (129)0.1 (61)90. Troy-6.023.6 (90)29.8 (94)0.2 (52)91. Oregon St.-6.320.9 (104)26.5 (74)-0.7 (137)92. Marshall-6.428.5 (54)35.2 (124)0.3 (48)93. Liberty-6.425.5 (66)31.7 (104)-0.2 (88)94. FAU-7.127.2 (60)34.9 (120)0.5 (20)95. WMU-7.219.0 (112)25.8 (68)-0.4 (106)96. Tulsa-7.623.5 (91)31.7 (103)0.5 (23)97. Utah St.-7.723.7 (87)30.9 (100)-0.5 (117)98. J’ville State-7.724.8 (77)32.0 (107)-0.5 (126)99. Colorado St.-8.318.8 (113)27.0 (78)-0.1 (82)100. La. Tech-8.322.3 (98)30.6 (99)0.0 (70)101. Arkansas St.-8.523.7 (88)32.3 (111)0.1 (62)102. Temple-8.725.2 (74)34.3 (117)0.3 (38)103. Ga. Southern-8.923.2 (92)32.1 (109)0.0 (72)104. Louisiana-9.125.2 (72)33.9 (116)-0.5 (115)105. Kennesaw St.-9.321.3 (101)30.1 (97)-0.5 (127)106. Wyoming-9.616.0 (124)25.0 (58)-0.6 (130)107. UConn-11.220.3 (107)32.1 (108)0.6 (15)108. Toledo-11.516.7 (121)27.9 (84)-0.4 (108)109. North Texas-11.823.6 (89)35.2 (123)-0.2 (90)110. Buffalo-11.915.7 (126)28.1 (85)0.6 (12)111. App. St.-12.121.2 (102)33.6 (115)0.3 (40)112. Nevada-12.217.4 (117)30.0 (96)0.4 (37)113. CMU-12.417.4 (116)29.6 (92)-0.2 (86)114. Delaware-13.022.7 (96)35.4 (126)-0.3 (98)115. BGSU-13.314.8 (128)28.3 (88)0.3 (43)116. S. Alabama-13.322.7 (95)35.4 (125)-0.7 (136)117. Ohio-13.613.3 (134)26.2 (72)-0.6 (132)118. FIU-13.721.5 (100)35.0 (122)-0.3 (92)119. Coastal Caro.-13.821.1 (103)34.4 (118)-0.5 (112)120. Rice-14.717.0 (119)32.2 (110)0.5 (25)121. EMU-15.017.8 (115)32.8 (112)0.0 (73)122. SJSU-15.518.6 (114)33.6 (114)-0.5 (120)123. NMSU-16.417.0 (118)33.4 (113)-0.1 (80)124. UAB-18.120.3 (108)37.9 (132)-0.5 (123)125. NIU-18.213.8 (132)31.8 (105)-0.2 (85)126. Missouri St.-18.716.7 (122)34.9 (121)-0.5 (122)127. Akron-19.513.0 (135)31.9 (106)-0.6 (131)128. Kent St.-20.115.9 (125)35.5 (127)-0.5 (121)129. UTEP-20.514.7 (129)34.7 (119)-0.5 (114)130. Sac State-22.715.1 (127)37.9 (131)0.0 (76)131. So. Miss-23.316.4 (123)39.2 (133)-0.4 (110)132. UL-Monroe-24.314.3 (130)37.9 (130)-0.7 (138)133. Georgia St.-25.117.0 (120)41.4 (137)-0.7 (133)134. Ball State-25.212.2 (136)36.7 (128)-0.7 (135)135. MTSU-26.013.7 (133)39.9 (134)0.2 (57)136. Sam Houston-26.314.1 (131)40.0 (135)-0.4 (107)137. UMass-30.99.6 (138)40.1 (136)-0.5 (124)138. Charlotte-32.410.4 (137)42.3 (138)-0.5 (111)
(Note: Special Teams SP+ estimates are based solely on a diluted version of last year’s ratings and doesn’t have anything to do with who does or doesn’t return. It also isn’t worth very much.)
Largest projected improvement
If you changed coaches and/or loaded up on high-productivity transfers, you might find that your projection for 2026 is significantly higher than where you left things in 2025.
Here are the 10 teams projected to improve the most this fall.
Oklahoma State: +21.7 adjusted points per game. I hinted at it above. The Cowboys fielded their worst team in more than 60 years last fall but replaced Mike Gundy with Morris, who basically migrated last season’s top-ranked offense to Stillwater. That doesn’t make them Big 12 favorites or anything, but it could very well make them a top-40 team.
Virginia Tech: +19.2. It was a similar situation for the Hokies: Former Penn State head coach James Franklin moved to Blacksburg and brought quite a few former Nittany Lions (and Nittany Lions signees) with him. That should allow them to rebound nicely in 2026, even if it doesn’t make them ACC contenders just yet.
UCLA: +13.6. Rinse, repeat. Bob Chesney moved from James Madison to the West Coast and brought lots of Dukes with him to spruce up a dramatically underachieving Bruins squad.
Syracuse: +12.1. The Orange didn’t change head coaches, but a new defensive coordinator (Vince Kehres) could spruce up a flagging defense, and Fran Brown brought in a pretty productive transfer class.
Florida: +11.2. Another coaching change (Jon Sumrall) for another program that has been underachieving against its long-term history.
North Carolina: +10.2. Bill Belichick made a coordinator change (to Bobby Petrino) for an offense that suddenly collapsed in 2025. The Tar Heels aren’t projected to be suddenly good, but even a mediocre offense would make them far more competitive.
Stanford: +9.8. Tavita Pritchard takes over the Cardinal at a time of historic underachievement.
LSU: +9.7. LSU hasn’t underachieved to the degree that others on this list have, but the change to Lane Kiffin, combined with a massively productive transfer class, should provide a boost.
Oregon State: +9.5. The Beavers were the most unlucky team in college football last year, and they were also quite terrible. That might create a solid first-year bump for new coach JaMarcus Shephard.
Colorado: +9.1. Deion Sanders made a pair of coordinator changes and brought in an underrated, productive transfer class. That could prove to be a solid combination.
Largest projected regression
North Texas: -25.3 adjusted points per game. The Mean Green are starting over. Completely. Neal Brown takes over a roster that returns only four starts from 2025. Not starters — starts.
Toledo: -17.4. New head coach Mike Jacobs came from Mercer and loaded up on FCS transfers after watching quite a bit of last year’s roster follow Jason Candle to UConn. That gambit might pay off, but you don’t get a ton of credit for lower-level transfers in the returning production formula.
UConn: -16.2. Candle brought guys from Toledo but lost more of them to Colorado State (where former coach Jim Mora landed). Transition year.
Southern Miss: -16.1. Charles Huff stayed only one year in Hattiesburg before moving on to Memphis, and the roster got flipped almost entirely for Blake Anderson. The Golden Eagles return only 18 starts from 2025.
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South Florida: -14.3; James Madison: -14.2; Tulane: -11.8. We’ll just bunch these teams together. All three lost their head coaches to SEC or Big Ten schools, and all three rank quite low in returning production.
Old Dominion: -11.5. ODU kept Ricky Rahne after last season’s delightful 10-win run, but Rahne lost offensive coordinator Kevin Decker and all but seven offensive starts from 2025. That will likely cause a setback.
Vanderbilt: -10.2. The first power conference team on the list, Vandy ranks last in the SEC in returning production, which is the main factor for this projected shift.
Utah: -10.2. The Utes are still a projected top-25 team, but SP+ loved them last season (they were eighth overall), and they take a hit after losing Kyle Whittingham to Michigan.
Conference-by-conference breakdown
With the Pac-12’s expansion/rebirth taking shape for 2026, we have a 10th conference to add to the FBS hierarchy. (That means we’ll be informally calling the non-power conferences the Group of 6 this year instead of the Group of 5. I assume I’ll screw that up approximately 14,000 times in the months to come.) Based on the above projections, here’s how that hierarchy is taking shape.
Average SP+ rating by conference
CONFERENCEAVG. RATINGOFF. (RANK)DEF. (RANK)1. SEC14.532.8 (1)18.6 (1)2. Big Ten11.030.7 (2)19.8 (2)3. Big 127.430.0 (3)22.6 (4)4. ACC6.428.5 (4)22.2 (3)5. Pac-12-3.723.6 (6)27.2 (5)6. Mountain West-8.221.2 (8)29.3 (6)7. American-8.223.7 (5)32.0 (8)8. Sun Belt-12.221.7 (7)33.6 (9)9. Conference USA-13.720.4 (9)34.0 (10)10. MAC-15.915.4 (10)31.1 (7)
The SEC remains atop the list, just as it did in 2025, because of pure depth. Despite the Big Ten featuring three of last year’s top four teams, the SEC still graded out better in terms of average ratings because seven Big Ten teams graded out worse than the worst SEC team. It’s a similar story here: The Big Ten has three of the top five but only eight of the top 30 and has four teams projected worse than 60th. The SEC has only one team in the top five but 12 in the top 26 teams and none lower than 54th.
I’m not going to wade into conference title projections until my conference preview series begins in early May — among other things, we have to wait to find out which damn conference Louisiana Tech ends up in — but to get a read on who the favorites will be, here are the top three projected teams from each conference.
ACC: No. 8 Miami, No. 23 Clemson, No. 27 Louisville
American: No. 63 Navy, No. 70 Memphis, No. 73 UTSA
Big 12: No. 7 Texas Tech, No. 18 BYU, No. 24 Utah
Big Ten: No. 1 Ohio State, No. 2 Oregon, No. 5 Indiana
Conference USA: No. 86 WKU, No. 91 Liberty, No. 96 Jacksonville State
MAC: No. 82 Miami (Ohio), No. 94 Western Michigan, No. 108 Toledo
MWC: No. 59 UNLV, No. 68 New Mexico, No. 72 North Dakota State
Pac-12: No. 39 Boise State, No. 71 SDSU, No. 78 Fresno State
SEC: No. 4 Georgia, No. 6 Texas, No. 9 Texas A&M
Sun Belt: No. 75 JMU, No. 89 ODU, No. 90 Troy
The transfer portal, NIL money and the increasing gap between haves and have-nots have certainly created solid distance between the power conferences and the Group of 6, and only one G6 team starts out in the top 50. It’s still almost certain that the best of the mid-major ranks will end up pretty high once the games have been played, but the projections are based on probabilities, and the only G6 team that appears particularly likely to play at a high level is Boise State.
That’s incredibly depressing if you ask me, and I hope that’s something we care enough to do something about in the future, but in the meantime the mid-major ranks should at least give us some fun conference title races. While there’s no one projected within 8.2 points of Miami in the ACC or 7.7 points of Texas Tech in the Big 12, the American, CUSA, Mountain West and Sun Belt are all relative logjams near the top.
Number of teams within 7.5 points of the top team in the conference
American, Sun Belt: 7
CUSA: 6
MWC, SEC: 5
Big Ten: 3
MAC: 2
ACC, Big 12, Pac-12: 1
If you like mess, the American and Sun Belt races are going to be absolute delights to follow. And the Conference USA race has been reliably messy as well over the last couple of seasons.
SP+ vs. conventional wisdom stats and eyeballs tend to agree most of the time … but not all the time. Let’s compare the rankings above to Mark Schlabach’s ESPN Way-Too-Early Top 25 to see where the biggest disagreements lie between the humans and the computers.
Sell, sell, sell!
Big 12 teams not named Texas Tech (Arizona State, TCU, BYU). Schlabach ranked four Big 12 teams in his Top 25, and with eight teams projected 37th or better in SP+, that number appears about right. But BYU, TCU and ASU are all projected at least seven spots lower in SP+ than where Schlabach has them, and you could make the case that Kansas State, Arizona or Houston are just as likely as TCU or ASU to contend. Regardless, it’s Tech, then BYU, then a big mass of potential contenders.
ACC teams not named Miami (Louisville, SMU). Schlabach and SP+ agree on Miami — the Hurricanes are eighth in both rankings — but while he had Louisville 14th and SMU 17th, SP+ has a batch of four next-in-line teams falling between 23rd and 33rd. The Cardinals and Mustangs are among them, but they’re in the high-20s.
Iowa. The Hawkeyes have one of the most reliable defenses in the country and return leading rusher Kamari Moulton, but they were hit particularly hard by attrition — they’re 104th in the country in returning production and last in the Big Ten. Schlabach ranks them 16th, and while SP+ still likes them a decent amount, it has them six spots lower.
Texas? SP+ was right to tell you to sell Texas this time last year, and it once again has Steve Sarkisian’s Longhorns ranked lower than Schlabach. But it still has them projected sixth, only 2.3 points from third. They are far more likely to live up to the hype in 2026 than in 2025.
Indiana?? Yes, SP+ also told you to sell your Indiana stock last year. Whoops. In theory, the Hoosiers have nowhere to go but down after going 16-0 and benefiting from more good fortune than anyone in FBS. But until we have proof that Curt Cignetti isn’t an actual wizard, maybe hold on to that stock.
Buy, buy, buy!
Ohio State and Oregon. If the Big Ten is to extend its streak to four different national champions in four years — following Michigan in 2023, Ohio State in 2024 and Indiana last fall — it’s pretty clear that Oregon is the runaway favorite in that regard. SP+ projects the Ducks a few spots higher than where Schlabach had them (fifth). But Oregon might have to topple a familiar foe to finally win its title ring. Ohio State (sixth, per Schlabach) starts out a comfortable No. 1 in SP+. That makes sense, of course, as the Buckeyes were No. 1 for most of last season, they boast an immaculate recent history, and they’re a healthy 31st in returning production. They start out a bit ahead of Oregon, Notre Dame, Georgia and the other most likely contenders.
The SEC’s 2025 disappointments (LSU, Alabama, Tennessee, Missouri, Florida, South Carolina). With the rise of teams like Oklahoma, Texas A&M and Vanderbilt last season, others in the SEC had to fall, and the six teams I just listed went from a combined 55-23 in 2024 (with an average SP+ ranking of 13.5) to 42-36 (34.0). Granted, those 2025 averages are dragged down by more precipitous falls from Florida and South Carolina, but five of the six saw their records regress, all six slipped in SP+, two changed head coaches, and three others changed at least one coordinator. All six are projected higher than where Schlabach placed them, though it will be virtually impossible for all six to actually improve their records as the SEC moves to nine-game conference schedules.
While we’re at it … the entire state of South Carolina? Granted, I don’t have any strongly formed opinions yet about how Furman or South Carolina State might do in FCS, and Coastal Carolina is only projected to improve a smidgen over last season’s low mark, but the state’s bellwether football programs, at least, are both projected to rebound from dreadfully disappointing seasons. SP+ rightly told you to sell your Clemson and South Carolina stock last season, but both might be positioned to rebound a decent amount, especially if new offensive coordinators turn out to be solid hires. I really didn’t like Clemson bringing back Chad Morris in that regard, but new South Carolina playcaller Kendal Briles certainly has a better recent track record than the guy he’s replacing (Mike Shula).
