Halfway through the season, the Heisman market still doesn’t know what to do. This is the year of complete teams, not star players, and it’s showing in the odds. No one is separating, but we are watching defenses dictate tempo more than quarterbacks are defining games. Still, every week, the same names stay near the top of the board.
For me, this isn’t a high-conviction year on predicting a Heisman. It could be a fragmented year in which the best quarterback and most likely winner might not be the same person. Plus, I don’t love that all three at the top sit below 5-1 in a year this volatile. Value comes when odds misalign with true probability; therefore, this board does not offer opportunity.
The biggest line moves for Heisman Trophy winner
Carson Beck, QB, Miami +350 
Last week +600
Beck’s season has been efficient, but not electric, as he’s completed 73% of his passes with 11 touchdowns and three interceptions. That’s solid, not special. He has averaged nearly 9 yards per attempt and hasn’t pushed the ball deep often, nor has he shown the mobility to add stats elsewhere. Miami is undefeated, which means Beck is naturally garnering attention. The Heisman winner needs either dominant stats or a spotlight, and Beck, for now, has one of the two.
Ty Simpson, QB, Alabama +400
Last week +800
He’s the most Heisman-like on paper and in narrative, taking Bama from “flawed” to “winning despite flaws.” His decision-making, poise and maturity help him stand out, and with Bama being a playoff-caliber brand, that sells to voters. Simpson is efficient, accurate and consistent, throwing for 1,678 yards, 16 touchdowns and just one interception, with strong grades across the board. His rushing impact is minimal, and his explosive play rate is average, but the narrative is doing the work: Alabama keeps winning.
Fernando Mendoza, QB, Indiana +450
Last week +1500
The metrics pop if you strip away brand bias. Mendoza grades across the board as elite with no weak area. He has the highest average depth of target among the three, the lowest-pressure to sack rate, and the faster time to throw. Mendoza is doing a great job of reading defenses and getting the ball out quickly with minimal risk. Indiana doesn’t have the brand cachet, but maybe this is the season we stop rating helmets. Mendoza’s numbers are real. The market just doesn’t believe it yet.
Top two in national championship odds
Ohio State +350
Last week +400
The public keeps yelling that Ohio State hasn’t played anybody. The betting odds reflect what we see and what the data says: this is the best defense in the country. Period.
Washington and Illinois offensively grade as seventh and 15th in the country, respectively, and both were shut down at home by Ohio State. Washington didn’t reach 250 yards, while Illinois scored 16 points on 11 possessions.
Ohio State’s defense doesn’t miss tackles and doesn’t give you space. People see schedule, but I see structure, discipline and suffocation. You can’t fake consistency, and Ohio State is making good offenses look ordinary.
Alabama +650
Last week +700
Alabama sits second on the board, largely because it has beaten three ranked teams. But you can’t use that logic for one team and not the other. Texas and Illinois were ranked, too, when they played Ohio State.
Strength of schedule is one of the most misunderstood metrics in college football. Of Alabama’s wins: Georgia has a bottom-15 pass rush and ranks 68th in coverage; Vanderbilt is 51st in pass protection and that was in Tuscaloosa; Missouri was the best win, as Ahmad Hardy was held to 52 yards on the road, but it still took 38 minutes of possession to win by three.
So yes, Alabama has ranked wins. But rankings don’t equal quality. The real tells are success rate, pressure differential and red zone touchdown rate — the numbers that actually measure execution and control.
Betting consideration: Indiana to win the national championship +900
0:45
Does Indiana have what it takes to win the CFB national championship?
Pamela Maldonado breaks down why she’s flirting with the idea that Indiana might have what it takes to win the CFB national championship.
I know, here I am talking about the Hoosiers again. But when the data is not only matching what I see, but saying, “No, no, they are actually better,” you have to listen.
Ohio State deserves to be the favorite because it is the standard right now. But if we’re talking about value, Indiana is the better bet. The numbers the Hoosiers are producing translate. Indiana is top five in both offensive and defensive EPA per play, top three in success rate on both sides, and it owns one of the nation’s best pass rush and red zone defenses. That profile travels, no matter who the Hoosiers face.
And because Indiana is winning off structure, if my argument is that we are in an era where strength of schedule means less and execution means everything, Indiana checks every box. If Indiana met Ohio State tomorrow, the Buckeyes would open as the betting favorite because of talent and perception, but Indiana is the more complete team. The Hoosiers execute in all phases, and their efficiency metrics translate in any matchup.
At +900, the market is still catching up to what the data already says: this is a legitimate championship contender. I stand by my words.
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