Kyle Bonagura
Mark Schlabach
Mark Schlabach
ESPN Senior Writer
Senior college football writer
Author of seven books on college football
Graduate of the University of Georgia
The Big Ten provided the biggest thrills in Week 11, with Indiana and Oregon both narrowly fending off upsets in dramatic fashion.
But Texas Tech delivered the biggest win of the weekend in terms of College Football Playoff implications, handing BYU its first loss of the season and securing its standing as the team to beat in the Big 12.
As with last season’s inaugural 12-team CFP, the five highest-ranked conference champions, plus the next seven highest-ranked teams, will make the field. Unlike last year, the four highest-ranked teams (not necessarily conference champions) will be awarded first-round byes. The other eight teams will meet in first-round games at the campus sites of seeds Nos. 5 through 8.
From there, the quarterfinals and semifinals will be played in what had been the New Year’s Six bowls, with the national championship game scheduled for Jan. 19 at Miami’s Hard Rock Stadium.
All of that is just the tip of the iceberg, though. Apart from the playoff is the 35-game slate of bowl games, beginning with the Cricket Celebration Bowl on Dec. 13.
We’re here for all of it.
ESPN bowl gurus Kyle Bonagura and Mark Schlabach are projecting every postseason matchup, including their breakdowns of how the playoff will play out, and we’ll be back every week of the season until the actual matchups are set.
Jump to a section:Playoff picks | QuarterfinalsSemis, title game | Bowl season
College Football Playoff
First-round games (at campus sites)
Friday, Dec. 198 p.m., ABC, ESPN
Saturday, Dec. 20Noon, ABC, ESPN3:30 p.m., TNT7:30 p.m., TNT
Bonagura: No. 12 North Texas at No. 5 GeorgiaSchlabach: No. 12 Tulane at No. 5 Georgia
Bonagura: No. 11 Georgia Tech at No. 6 Texas TechSchlabach: No. 11 Pittsburgh at No. 6 Ole Miss
Bonagura: No. 10 BYU at No. 7 OregonSchlabach: No. 10 BYU at No. 7 Texas Tech
Bonagura: No. 9 Notre Dame at No. 8 Ole MissSchlabach: No. 9 Notre Dame at No. 8 Oregon
First-round breakdown
Bonagura: The most meaningful result of the weekend was Texas Tech’s convincing win against BYU that reestablished the Red Raiders as the favorite in the Big 12 and highlighted the Cougars’ offensive limitations. If BYU wins out — facing TCU, Cincinnati and UCF — to finish 11-1 and loses again to Texas Tech in the conference title game, it would put the Cougars in an interesting position for at-large consideration, potentially pitting them against a fifth SEC team for the final playoff spot.
When the committee debuted its rankings, Memphis was the highest-ranked Group of 5 team but promptly lost to Tulane, which dropped the Tigers to sixth place in the American Conference (there are five one-loss teams). I have North Texas in the playoff spot again this week, but there really isn’t an obvious favorite.
The Sun Belt’s James Madison (8-1) has won seven straight and could benefit from the American chaos, while San Diego State’s chances took a huge hit late Saturday night in Hawai’i, where the Aztecs lost 38-6.
Schlabach: I’ll be honest: I didn’t know what to do with the ACC or the Group of 5 this week after Virginia and Louisville both fell, and Memphis lost to Tulane in the American Conference.
The ACC is an absolute mess with five teams — Georgia Tech, Virginia, Pittsburgh, SMU and Duke — currently having only one loss in conference play. I went with the red-hot Panthers for now, but they’ve got the most difficult road left with a nonconference home game against Notre Dame on Saturday, followed by ACC games at Georgia Tech and home against Miami. Pitt has won five games in a row and is scoring a ton of points, but I’m not sure it can survive that grueling stretch.
I’d loved what Georgia Tech was doing this season, although its 48-36 loss at NC State two weeks ago exposed some serious problems on defense. The Yellow Jackets play at Boston College on Saturday, then host Pittsburgh and play rival Georgia at Mercedes-Benz Stadium in Atlanta.
Duke, even at 5-4 overall, might have the best path if it can knock off Virginia at home Saturday. The Blue Devils suffered their third nonconference loss this week, falling to UConn 37-34 on the road. After hosting the Cavaliers, they’ll play at North Carolina and against Wake Forest at home.
I went with Tulane as my fifth conference champion, although I seriously considered South Florida, North Texas and James Madison as well.
CFP quarterfinals
Wednesday, Dec. 31
CFP Quarterfinal at the Goodyear Cotton Bowl ClassicAT&T Stadium (Arlington, Texas)7:30 p.m., ESPNBonagura: No. 7 Oregon vs. No. 2 IndianaSchlabach: No. 5 Georgia vs. No. 4 Alabama
Thursday, Jan. 1
CFP Quarterfinal at the Capital One Orange BowlHard Rock Stadium (Miami Gardens, Florida)Noon, ESPNBonagura: No. 5 Georgia vs. No. 4 AlabamaSchlabach: No. 6 Ole Miss vs. No. 3 Indiana
CFP Quarterfinal at the Rose Bowl Game presented by PrudentialRose Bowl (Pasadena, California)4 p.m., ESPNBonagura: No. 8 Ole Miss vs. No. 1 Ohio StateSchlabach: No. 9 Notre Dame vs. No. 1 Ohio State
CFP Quarterfinal at the Allstate Sugar Bowl Caesars Superdome (New Orleans)8 p.m., ESPNBonagura: No. 6 Texas Tech vs. No. 3 Texas A&MSchlabach: No. 7 Texas Tech vs. No. 2 Texas A&M
Quarterfinals breakdown
Bonagura: Oregon and Indiana both turned in iconic last-minute drives to win Saturday, keeping both on track. The win was particularly important for Oregon, which doesn’t have the same margin of error as the Hoosiers. At 8-1, the Ducks should be safely in the playoff with two wins in their final three games with Minnesota, USC and Washington left to play. Indiana is ranked No. 2 by the committee, but the most likely scenario — with what’s left to come — is that the Big Ten champion will get the No. 1 seed, and the SEC champion will be seeded second.
It goes against the spirit of the rankings, but I think there is a way to take conference affiliation into account come playoff time. Purely from an entertainment standpoint, I don’t like that these hypothetical quarterfinals arrange rematches with Alabama-Georgia and Indiana-Oregon. It comes with the territory to a certain degree, but it would be much more interesting if conference matchups were avoided to the extent it wouldn’t impact the integrity of the format.
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Schlabach: I dinged Indiana one spot in my seedings after it needed a miracle touchdown pass in the closing seconds to beat struggling Penn State 27-24 on the road Saturday. A win is a win, especially in November, but the Nittany Lions have lost six in a row.
I moved Texas A&M up one spot after it picked up another big road victory, winning 38-17 at Missouri. The Aggies won at Notre Dame and LSU earlier this season, and they might have to win once more at rival Texas on Nov. 28 to stay in the hunt for a first-round bye.
Georgia and Alabama would be an entertaining rematch in the Cotton Bowl, and I’m sure Rose Bowl officials would love to see the Fighting Irish and Buckeyes playing in Pasadena on New Year’s Day. There would also be plenty of Lone Star State bragging rights on the line if the Aggies and Red Raiders met up in the Sugar Bowl.
CFP semifinals, national championship game
Thursday, Jan. 8
CFP Semifinal at the Vrbo Fiesta BowlState Farm Stadium (Glendale, Arizona)7:30 p.m., ESPNBonagura: No. 4 Alabama vs. No. 1 Ohio StateSchlabach: No. 5 Georgia vs. No. 1 Ohio State
Friday, Jan. 9
CFP Semifinal at the Chick-fil-A Peach BowlMercedes-Benz Stadium (Atlanta)7:30 p.m., ESPNBonagura: No. 3 Texas A&M vs. No. 2 IndianaSchlabach: No. 3 Indiana vs. No. 2 Texas A&M
Monday, Jan. 19
CFP National ChampionshipHard Rock Stadium (Miami Gardens, Florida)7:45 p.m., ESPNBonagura: No. 2 Indiana vs. No. 1 Ohio StateSchlabach: No. 2 Texas A&M vs. No. 1 Ohio State
National championship breakdown
Bonagura: Texas A&M looked the part against Missouri, Ohio State put Purdue to bed in the first half and Indiana survived, leaving three undefeated teams. But none of them have been so dominant that it would qualify as a major shock if they don’t march to the title game with ease. This is exactly why a playoff was needed in college football.
Schlabach: Ohio State continues to cruise, routing Purdue 34-10 on the road Saturday. I considered moving Texas A&M to No. 1 because the Buckeyes don’t have much meat on their résumé besides their 14-7 win against Texas in the opener.
Road wins at Washington and Illinois were nice, but the Huskies just lost at struggling Wisconsin, and the Illini have dropped three games. Ohio State still has the best defense in the FBS, and quarterback Julian Sayin is a Heisman Trophy front-runner. The Buckeyes shouldn’t be tested in their next two games against UCLA and Rutgers before closing the regular season at Michigan on Nov. 29.
Complete bowl season schedule
Saturday, Dec. 13
Cricket Celebration BowlMercedes-Benz Stadium (Atlanta)Noon, ABCBonagura: Jackson State vs. South Carolina StateSchlabach: Jackson State vs. Delaware State
LA BowlSoFi Stadium (Inglewood, California)9 p.m., ESPNBonagura: Arizona vs. San Diego StateSchlabach: Washington vs. San Diego State
Tuesday, Dec. 16
IS4S Salute to Veterans BowlCramton Bowl (Montgomery, Alabama)9 p.m., ESPNBonagura: Louisiana Tech vs. East CarolinaSchlabach: Jacksonville State vs. Troy
Wednesday, Dec. 17
StaffDNA Cure BowlCamping World Stadium (Orlando, Florida)5 p.m., ESPNBonagura: Buffalo vs. Jacksonville StateSchlabach: Buffalo vs. Old Dominion
68 Ventures BowlHancock Whitney Stadium (Mobile, Alabama)8:30 p.m., ESPNBonagura: Coastal Carolina vs. Western MichiganSchlabach: Coastal Carolina vs. Central Michigan
Friday, Dec. 19
Myrtle Beach BowlBrooks Stadium (Conway, South Carolina)Noon, ESPNBonagura: UConn vs. TroySchlabach: North Texas vs. James Madison
Union Home Mortgage Gasparilla BowlRaymond James Stadium (Tampa, Florida)3:30 p.m., ESPNBonagura: South Florida vs. ClemsonSchlabach: UConn vs. Utah State
Monday, Dec. 22
Famous Idaho Potato BowlAlbertsons Stadium (Boise, Idaho)2 p.m., ESPNBonagura: Toledo vs. UNLVSchlabach: Ohio vs. UNLV
Tuesday, Dec. 23
Editor’s Picks
2 Related
Boca Raton BowlFlagler Credit Union Stadium (Boca Raton, Florida)2 p.m., ESPNBonagura: Southern Miss vs. Florida InternationalSchlabach: Arkansas State vs. Miami (Ohio)
New Orleans Bowl Caesars Superdome (New Orleans)5:30 p.m., ESPNBonagura: Western Kentucky vs. Old DominionSchlabach: Kennesaw State vs. Southern Miss
Scooter’s Coffee Frisco BowlFord Center at The Star (Frisco, Texas)9 p.m., ESPNBonagura: UTSA vs. Hawai’iSchlabach: East Carolina vs. Louisiana Tech
Wednesday, Dec. 24
Sheraton Hawai’i BowlClarence T.C. Ching Athletics Complex (Honolulu)8 p.m., ESPNBonagura: Boise State vs. CaliforniaSchlabach: Hawai’i vs. Memphis
Friday, Dec. 26
GameAbove Sports BowlFord Field (Detroit)1 p.m., ESPNBonagura: Rutgers vs. OhioSchlabach: Rutgers vs. Western Michigan
Rate BowlChase Field (Phoenix)4:30 p.m., ESPNBonagura: Baylor vs. NorthwesternSchlabach: TCU vs. Northwestern
SERVPRO First Responder BowlGerald J. Ford Stadium (Dallas)8 p.m., ESPNBonagura: Temple vs. Utah StateSchlabach: Kansas vs. Boise State
Saturday, Dec. 27
Go Bowling Military BowlNavy-Marine Corps Memorial Stadium (Annapolis, Maryland)11 a.m., ESPNBonagura: Duke vs. TulaneSchlabach: Wake Forest vs. Navy
Bad Boy Mowers Pinstripe BowlYankee Stadium (Bronx, New York)Noon, ABCBonagura: Pittsburgh vs. MinnesotaSchlabach: Louisville vs. Illinois
Wasabi Fenway BowlFenway Park (Boston)2:15 p.m., ESPNBonagura: NC State vs. ArmySchlabach: NC State vs. South Florida
Pop-Tarts BowlCamping World Stadium (Orlando, Florida)3:30 p.m., ABCBonagura: Miami vs. HoustonSchlabach: Georgia Tech vs. Houston
Snoop Dogg Arizona BowlArizona Stadium (Tucson, Arizona)4:30 p.m., CW NetworkBonagura: Miami (Ohio) vs. Fresno StateSchlabach: Toledo vs. Fresno State
Isleta New Mexico BowlUniversity Stadium (Albuquerque, New Mexico)5:45 p.m., ESPNBonagura: New Mexico vs. Washington StateSchlabach: New Mexico vs. Akron
TaxSlayer Gator BowlEverBank Stadium (Jacksonville, Florida)7:30 p.m. ABCBonagura: Virginia vs. LSUSchlabach: Virginia vs. Vanderbilt
Kinder’s Texas BowlNRG Stadium (Houston)9:15 p.m., ESPNBonagura: TCU vs. OklahomaSchlabach: Iowa State vs. Oklahoma
Monday, Dec. 29
JLab Birmingham BowlProtective Stadium (Birmingham, Alabama)2 p.m., ESPNBonagura: Memphis vs. James MadisonSchlabach: Clemson vs. UTSA
Tuesday, Dec. 30
Radiance Technologies Independence BowlIndependence Stadium (Shreveport, Louisiana)2 p.m., ESPNBonagura: Kansas vs. Kennesaw StateSchlabach: Baylor vs. Western Kentucky
Music City BowlNissan Stadium (Nashville, Tennessee)5:30 p.m., ESPNBonagura: Nebraska vs. MissouriSchlabach: Minnesota vs. LSU
Valero Alamo BowlAlamodome (San Antonio)9 p.m., ESPNBonagura: Cincinnati vs. USCSchlabach: Cincinnati vs. USC
Wednesday, Dec. 31
ReliaQuest BowlRaymond James Stadium (Tampa, Florida)Noon, ESPNBonagura: Illinois vs. TexasSchlabach: Iowa vs. Tennessee
Tony the Tiger Sun BowlSun Bowl Stadium (El Paso, Texas)2 p.m., CBSBonagura: Wake Forest vs. Arizona StateSchlabach: Miami vs. California
Cheez-It Citrus BowlCamping World Stadium (Orlando, Florida)3 p.m., ABCBonagura: Michigan vs. VanderbiltSchlabach: Michigan vs. Texas
SRS Distribution Las Vegas BowlAllegiant Stadium (Las Vegas)3:30 p.m., ESPNBonagura: Iowa vs. UtahSchlabach: Nebraska vs. Utah
Friday, Jan. 2
Lockheed Martin Armed Forces BowlAmon G. Carter Stadium (Fort Worth, Texas)1 p.m., ESPNBonagura: Kansas State vs. NavySchlabach: Arizona vs. Army
AutoZone Liberty BowlSimmons Bank Liberty Stadium (Memphis, Tennessee)4:30 p.m., ESPNBonagura: Iowa State vs. KentuckySchlabach: Kansas State vs. Kentucky
Duke’s Mayo BowlBank of America Stadium (Charlotte, North Carolina)8 p.m., ESPNBonagura: Louisville vs. TennesseeSchlabach: Duke vs. Missouri
Holiday BowlSnapdragon Stadium (San Diego)8 p.m., FoxBonagura: SMU vs. WashingtonSchlabach: SMU vs. Arizona State
