Kyle Bonagura
Mark Schlabach
Mark Schlabach
ESPN Senior Writer
Senior college football writer
Author of seven books on college football
Graduate of the University of Georgia
With one week left in the regular season, the College Football Playoff and bowl pictures are coming into sharper focus — except where they aren’t.
Things are pretty settled at the top of the field, as a relatively upset-free Week 13 left a half-dozen or so teams that are virtual locks for the CFP. But the ACC in particular has numerous moving parts in terms of who will play for the conference championship and likely make the playoff, and league title-game matchups are unsettled pretty much everywhere.
Meanwhile, teams sitting at five wins are sweating things out, with one more chance to become bowl eligible.
As with last season’s inaugural 12-team CFP, the five highest-ranked conference champions, plus the next seven highest-ranked teams, will make the field. Unlike last year, the four highest-ranked teams (not necessarily conference champions) will be awarded first-round byes. The other eight teams will meet in first-round games at the campus sites of seeds Nos. 5 through 8.
From there, the quarterfinals and semifinals will be played in what had been the New Year’s Six bowls, with the national championship game scheduled for Jan. 19 at Miami’s Hard Rock Stadium.
All of that is just the tip of the iceberg, though. Apart from the playoff is the 35-game slate of bowl games, beginning with the Cricket Celebration Bowl on Dec. 13.
We’re here for all of it.
ESPN bowl gurus Kyle Bonagura and Mark Schlabach are projecting every postseason matchup, including their breakdowns of how the playoff will play out, and we’ll be back every week of the season until the actual matchups are set.
Jump to a section:Playoff picks | QuarterfinalsSemis, title game | Bowl season
College Football Playoff
First-round games (at campus sites)
Friday, Dec. 198 p.m., ABC, ESPN
Saturday, Dec. 20Noon, ABC, ESPN3:30 p.m., TNT7:30 p.m., TNT
Bonagura: No. 12 North Texas at No. 5 Texas TechSchlabach: No. 12 Tulane at No. 5 Texas Tech
Bonagura: No. 11 SMU at No. 6 Ole MissSchlabach: No. 11 SMU at No. 6 Oregon
Bonagura: No. 10 Alabama at No. 7 OregonSchlabach: No. 10 Alabama at No. 7 Ole Miss
Bonagura: No. 9 Notre Dame at No. 8 OklahomaSchlabach: No. 9 Notre Dame at No. 8 Oklahoma
First-round breakdown
Bonagura: The ACC doomsday scenario of its conference champion being left out of the playoff in favor of a team from the American — Tulane or North Texas — and the Sun Belt’s James Madison is still alive, but it feels like a we’ll-believe-it-when-we-see-it thing.
For now, I still don’t think the ACC champ would end up behind two Group of 5 teams, regardless of who it is. That would be a lot easier to feel good about if Miami had a straightforward path to the ACC title game, but that is not the case. Instead, the Hurricanes need to beat Pitt and would need Virginia to lose to Virginia Tech and Cal to beat SMU. It’s possible. It’s not likely. The title game will be SMU and Virginia if they both win next week, which is why SMU gets the ACC nod for the time being; the Ponies have been the better team of late.
The rest of the playoff field is mostly straightforward. Six teams from the SEC and Big Ten are locks (Ohio State, Indiana, Texas A&M, Georgia, Ole Miss, Oregon). So is Texas Tech of the Big 12. Notre Dame (Stanford), Alabama (Auburn) and Oklahoma (LSU) are probably in with wins, but one of those slots would go to BYU if the Cougars beat Texas Tech in the Big 12 title game.
Schlabach: The appetizer to the final weekend of the regular season didn’t produce much drama, as every CFP contender — outside of the ACC at least — found a way to get things done, mostly against inferior competition.
Allstate Playoff Predictor
How will this season’s top games affect the College Football Playoff chase? What are the current odds for the top four? The Allstate Playoff Predictor has the answers. Check back every week as the odds are updated following that week’s games.
With two weeks left before the CFP selection committee announces the 12-team bracket on Dec. 7, I’m betting that five teams — Ohio State, Indiana, Texas A&M, Georgia and Texas Tech — have punched their tickets, regardless of what happens in their regular-season finales and respective conference championship games (if they make it there).
Three more teams — Oregon, Ole Miss and Oklahoma — can probably do the same if they win this week. The Ducks erased any doubts about their overall strength with an impressive 42-27 win against USC. They’ll close the regular season at Washington on Saturday.
The Rebels had the weekend off, and they might have needed the time to refocus as speculation continues to heat up about whether coach Lane Kiffin will leave for LSU or Florida. Ole Miss plays at rival Mississippi State in the Egg Bowl on Friday.
The surging Sooners picked up their third straight victory against a ranked opponent, taking down Missouri 17-6 at home. Oklahoma hosts LSU in its regular-season finale Saturday.
Notre Dame and Alabama would probably be in good shape for at-large bids with wins this coming weekend; the Irish play at struggling Stanford on Saturday, while the Crimson Tide travel to Auburn in Saturday’s Iron Bowl. However, they might still be at the mercy of the selection committee, depending on what happens in other leagues.
CFP quarterfinals
Wednesday, Dec. 31
CFP Quarterfinal at the Goodyear Cotton Bowl ClassicAT&T Stadium (Arlington, Texas)7:30 p.m., ESPNBonagura: No. 7 Oregon vs. No. 2 IndianaSchlabach: No. 7 Ole Miss vs. No. 2 Indiana
Thursday, Jan. 1
CFP Quarterfinal at the Capital One Orange BowlHard Rock Stadium (Miami Gardens, Florida)Noon, ESPNBonagura: No. 5 Texas Tech vs. No. 4 GeorgiaSchlabach: No. 5 Texas Tech vs. No. 4 Georgia
CFP Quarterfinal at the Rose Bowl Game presented by PrudentialRose Bowl (Pasadena, California)4 p.m., ESPNBonagura: No. 8 Oklahoma vs. No. 1 Ohio StateSchlabach: No. 9 Notre Dame vs. No. 1 Ohio State
CFP Quarterfinal at the Allstate Sugar Bowl Caesars Superdome (New Orleans)8 p.m., ESPNBonagura: No. 6 Ole Miss vs. No. 3 Texas A&MSchlabach: No. 6 Oregon vs. No. 3 Texas A&M
Quarterfinals breakdown
Bonagura: No changes for me here from last week, but it should be noted that Oregon is back on track offensively after a couple of uninspiring showings in late October and early November.
Quarterback Dante Moore looks like he is capable of leading a team to the national title, but first the Ducks have a big rivalry game with Washington to navigate this week.
Schlabach: Three of the top four seeds continued to play well this weekend, as Ohio State crushed Rutgers 42-9 at home. Next the Buckeyes travel to Michigan, where they’ll attempt to exorcise some demons in “The Game.” The Buckeyes have dropped four games in a row to the Wolverines, including a stunning 13-10 loss at home last season. The Buckeyes were ranked No. 2 in the CFP rankings and somehow fell to the 6-5 Wolverines. Emotions will surely be running high once again at the Big House.
Texas A&M walloped FCS program Samford 48-0 in its final warmup game. The Aggies will play at rival Texas for the first time in 15 years on Saturday. Texas A&M won 24-17 at Texas on Nov. 25, 2010. The Longhorns won the past two games in the series, both in College Station.
Georgia took care of business in a 35-3 win against Charlotte. The Bulldogs will play rival Georgia Tech at Mercedes-Benz Stadium in Atlanta on Saturday. Last season, Georgia had to overcome a 17-point deficit and needed eight overtimes to put the Yellow Jackets away in a 44-42 victory.
CFP semifinals, national championship game
Thursday, Jan. 8
CFP Semifinal at the Vrbo Fiesta BowlState Farm Stadium (Glendale, Arizona)7:30 p.m., ESPNBonagura: No. 5 Texas Tech vs. No. 1 Ohio StateSchlabach: No. 4 Georgia vs. No. 1 Ohio State
Friday, Jan. 9
CFP Semifinal at the Chick-fil-A Peach BowlMercedes-Benz Stadium (Atlanta)7:30 p.m., ESPNBonagura: No. 3 Texas A&M vs. No. 2 IndianaSchlabach: No. 3 Texas A&M vs. No. 2 Indiana
Monday, Jan. 19
CFP National ChampionshipHard Rock Stadium (Miami Gardens, Florida)7:45 p.m., ESPNBonagura: No. 2 Indiana vs. No. 1 Ohio StateSchlabach: No. 3 Texas A&M vs. No. 1 Ohio State
National championship breakdown
Bonagura: Ohio State is the deserved No. 1 seed. Its defense has been historically good, and the Buckeyes haven’t been challenged since opening the season with Texas. But they also haven’t exactly seen the best the Big Ten has to offer without Indiana, Oregon, USC or Iowa on the schedule this year.
It would be a lot easier to be more confident about Ohio State with a couple of more ranked teams on its résumé, but that’s how things work out with schedules now that conferences are so big. It makes this week’s game against Michigan more interesting and potentially sets up a fascinating Big Ten title game.
Schlabach: My quarterfinal and semifinal matchups remain unchanged from a week ago. The Cotton Bowl contest would feature two of the best transfer quarterbacks in the FBS: Ole Miss’ Trinidad Chambliss and Indiana’s Fernando Mendoza.
I have Georgia slipping past Texas Tech in the Orange Bowl, although the Red Raiders’ menacing defensive front would be quite the challenge for the Bulldogs’ much-improved offensive line. Georgia seems to be peaking at the right time, unlike last season, and few coaches know how to get things done in the postseason like Kirby Smart.
A Rose Bowl game between Notre Dame and Ohio State would be a TV ratings bonanza, and Texas A&M-Oregon in New Orleans would be another entertaining game. I have both favorites moving on to the semifinals.
Complete bowl season schedule
Saturday, Dec. 13
Cricket Celebration BowlMercedes-Benz Stadium (Atlanta)Noon, ABCBonagura: Jackson State vs. South Carolina StateSchlabach: Jackson State vs. South Carolina State
LA BowlSoFi Stadium (Inglewood, California)9 p.m., ESPNBonagura: Arizona State vs. San Diego StateSchlabach: Washington vs. San Diego State
Tuesday, Dec. 16
IS4S Salute to Veterans BowlCramton Bowl (Montgomery, Alabama)9 p.m., ESPNBonagura: Central Michigan vs. TroySchlabach: Jacksonville State vs. Troy
Wednesday, Dec. 17
StaffDNA Cure BowlCamping World Stadium (Orlando, Florida)5 p.m., ESPNBonagura: Jacksonville State vs. MarshallSchlabach: Florida International vs. Old Dominion
68 Ventures BowlHancock Whitney Stadium (Mobile, Alabama)8:30 p.m., ESPNBonagura: Coastal Carolina vs. Louisiana TechSchlabach: Coastal Carolina vs. Central Michigan
Editor’s Picks
2 Related
Friday, Dec. 19
Myrtle Beach BowlBrooks Stadium (Conway, South Carolina)Noon, ESPNBonagura: Southern Miss vs. UConnSchlabach: Marshall vs. East Carolina
Union Home Mortgage Gasparilla BowlRaymond James Stadium (Tampa, Florida)3:30 p.m., ESPNBonagura: South Florida vs. ClemsonSchlabach: UConn vs. Florida State
Monday, Dec. 22
Famous Idaho Potato BowlAlbertsons Stadium (Boise, Idaho)2 p.m., ESPNBonagura: Toledo vs. UNLVSchlabach: Ohio vs. Boise State
Tuesday, Dec. 23
Boca Raton BowlFlagler Credit Union Stadium (Boca Raton, Florida)2 p.m., ESPNBonagura: Florida International vs. LouisianaSchlabach: Miami (Ohio) vs. Louisiana
New Orleans Bowl Caesars Superdome (New Orleans)5:30 p.m., ESPNBonagura: Western Kentucky vs. Old DominionSchlabach: Kennesaw State vs. Southern Miss
Scooter’s Coffee Frisco BowlFord Center at The Star (Frisco, Texas)9 p.m., ESPNBonagura: Boise State vs. James MadisonSchlabach: Utah State vs. Louisiana Tech
Wednesday, Dec. 24
Sheraton Hawai’i BowlClarence T.C. Ching Athletics Complex (Honolulu)8 p.m., ESPNBonagura: Hawai’i vs. CaliforniaSchlabach: Hawai’i vs. California
Friday, Dec. 26
GameAbove Sports BowlFord Field (Detroit)1 p.m., ESPNBonagura: Penn State vs. OhioSchlabach: Penn State vs. Western Michigan
Rate BowlChase Field (Phoenix)4:30 p.m., ESPNBonagura: Cincinnati vs. NorthwesternSchlabach: Kansas State vs. Minnesota
SERVPRO First Responder BowlGerald J. Ford Stadium (Dallas)8 p.m., ESPNBonagura: Texas State vs. Utah StateSchlabach: North Texas vs. UNLV
Saturday, Dec. 27
Go Bowling Military BowlNavy-Marine Corps Memorial Stadium (Annapolis, Maryland)11 a.m., ESPNBonagura: Duke vs. East CarolinaSchlabach: Wake Forest vs. Navy
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Bad Boy Mowers Pinstripe BowlYankee Stadium (Bronx, New York)Noon, ABCBonagura: Pittsburgh vs. MinnesotaSchlabach: Pittsburgh vs. Illinois
Wasabi Fenway BowlFenway Park (Boston)2:15 p.m., ESPNBonagura: NC State vs. ArmySchlabach: Louisville vs. South Florida
Pop-Tarts BowlCamping World Stadium (Orlando, Florida)3:30 p.m., ABCBonagura: Miami vs. HoustonSchlabach: Virginia vs. Cincinnati
Snoop Dogg Arizona BowlArizona Stadium (Tucson, Arizona)4:30 p.m., CW NetworkBonagura: Miami (Ohio) vs. Fresno StateSchlabach: Toledo vs. Fresno State
Isleta New Mexico BowlUniversity Stadium (Albuquerque, New Mexico)5:45 p.m., ESPNBonagura: New Mexico vs. Washington StateSchlabach: New Mexico vs. UTSA
TaxSlayer Gator BowlEverBank Stadium (Jacksonville, Florida)7:30 p.m. ABCBonagura: Virginia vs. LSUSchlabach: Miami vs. Texas
Kinder’s Texas BowlNRG Stadium (Houston)9:15 p.m., ESPNBonagura: Iowa State vs. TexasSchlabach: Houston vs. Kentucky
Monday, Dec. 29
JLab Birmingham BowlProtective Stadium (Birmingham, Alabama)2 p.m., ESPNBonagura: Florida State vs. MemphisSchlabach: NC State vs. James Madison
Tuesday, Dec. 30
Radiance Technologies Independence BowlIndependence Stadium (Shreveport, Louisiana)2 p.m., ESPNBonagura: UTSA vs. Kennesaw StateSchlabach: Baylor vs. Western Kentucky
Music City BowlNissan Stadium (Nashville, Tennessee)5:30 p.m., ESPNBonagura: Nebraska vs. MissouriSchlabach: Northwestern vs. LSU
Valero Alamo BowlAlamodome (San Antonio)9 p.m., ESPNBonagura: BYU vs. USCSchlabach: BYU vs. USC
Wednesday, Dec. 31
ReliaQuest BowlRaymond James Stadium (Tampa, Florida)Noon, ESPNBonagura: Illinois vs. KentuckySchlabach: Iowa vs. Tennessee
Tony the Tiger Sun BowlSun Bowl Stadium (El Paso, Texas)2 p.m., CBSBonagura: Wake Forest vs. ArizonaSchlabach: Clemson vs. Arizona
Cheez-It Citrus BowlCamping World Stadium (Orlando, Florida)3 p.m., ABCBonagura: Michigan vs. VanderbiltSchlabach: Michigan vs. Vanderbilt
SRS Distribution Las Vegas BowlAllegiant Stadium (Las Vegas)3:30 p.m., ESPNBonagura: Iowa vs. UtahSchlabach: Nebraska vs. Utah
Friday, Jan. 2
Lockheed Martin Armed Forces BowlAmon G. Carter Stadium (Fort Worth, Texas)1 p.m., ESPNBonagura: Kansas State vs. NavySchlabach: TCU vs. Army
AutoZone Liberty BowlSimmons Bank Liberty Stadium (Memphis, Tennessee)4:30 p.m., ESPNBonagura: TCU vs. TulaneSchlabach: Iowa State vs. Memphis
Duke’s Mayo BowlBank of America Stadium (Charlotte, North Carolina)8 p.m., ESPNBonagura: Louisville vs. TennesseeSchlabach: Duke vs. Missouri
Holiday BowlSnapdragon Stadium (San Diego)8 p.m., FoxBonagura: Georgia Tech vs. WashingtonSchlabach: Georgia Tech vs. Arizona State
