Kyle Bonagura
Mark Schlabach
Mark Schlabach
ESPN Senior Writer
Senior college football writer
Author of seven books on college football
Graduate of the University of Georgia
The overriding trend of the 2025 college football season — anything goes — continued in Week 6 with two sure-fire preseason College Football Playoff contenders losing to opponents who (up to that point) had disappointed.
Penn State’s loss to winless UCLA was the big shocker, with Texas’ defeat at Florida not far behind. Other key results for the postseason picture included Alabama handing Vanderbilt its first loss, Cincinnati doing the same to Iowa State and Miami winning at Florida State.
As with last season’s inaugural 12-team CFP, the five highest-ranked conference champions, plus the next seven highest-ranked teams, will make the field. Unlike last year, the four highest-ranked teams (not necessarily conference champions) will be awarded first-round byes. The other eight teams will meet in first-round games at the campus sites of seeds Nos. 5 through 8.
From there, the quarterfinals and semifinals will be played in what had been the New Year’s Six bowls, with this season’s national championship game scheduled for Jan. 19 at Miami’s Hard Rock Stadium.
All of that is just the tip of the iceberg, though. Apart from the playoff is the 35-game slate of bowl games, beginning with the Cricket Celebration Bowl on Dec. 13.
We’re here for all of it.
ESPN bowl gurus Kyle Bonagura and Mark Schlabach are projecting every postseason matchup, including their breakdowns of how the playoff will play out, and we’ll be back every week of the season until the actual matchups are set.
Jump to a section:Playoff picks | QuarterfinalsSemis, title game | Bowl season
College Football Playoff
First-round games (at campus sites)
Friday, Dec. 19/Saturday, Dec. 20
Times and networks TBD.
Bonagura: No. 12 Memphis at No. 5 OklahomaSchlabach: No. 12 South Florida at No. 5 Texas A&M
Bonagura: No. 11 Texas A&M at No. 6 Texas TechSchlabach: No. 11 LSU at No. 6 Oklahoma
Bonagura: No. 10 Georgia Tech at No. 7 AlabamaSchlabach: No. 10 Georgia at No. 7 Indiana
Bonagura: No. 9 Georgia at No. 8 IndianaSchlabach: No. 9 Texas Tech at No. 8 Alabama
First-round breakdown
Bonagura: The monster result of the week was Penn State falling at UCLA, which came into the game looking like a team that might go winless. But Penn State’s shocking loss wasn’t the only significant setback among playoff hopefuls, with Texas (to Florida), Iowa State (to Cincinnati) and Vanderbilt (to Alabama) all falling.
This leaves the field with distinct SEC flavor in my bracket, with all four first-round games featuring a team from the conference. From my perspective, that is not good for the sport, but nine SEC teams are a combined 41-5, and only one of those losses came in nonconference. It has been a dominant run so far.
Schlabach: Penn State’s stunning 42-37 loss at previously winless UCLA shook up my 12-team bracket. I’d already dropped the Nittany Lions to No. 11 after last week’s 30-24 loss in two overtimes to Oregon, and now they’re out of my bracket altogether. It’s a stunning fall for James Franklin’s program.
LSU replaces Penn State, although I strongly considered Missouri, Tennessee, Georgia Tech and even two-loss Notre Dame for the final spot. I’m still not completely sold on LSU as a CFP team because of its inconsistent offense.
Two of the most intriguing first-round matchups in this scenario would be Georgia traveling to Indiana, where it could be quite cold, and LSU facing Oklahoma in an all-SEC game.
CFP quarterfinals
Wednesday, Dec. 31
CFP quarterfinal at the Goodyear Cotton Bowl ClassicAT&T Stadium (Arlington, Texas)7:30 p.m., ESPNBonagura: No. 7 Alabama vs. No. 2 OregonSchlabach: No. 10 Georgia vs. No. 2 Oregon
Thursday, Jan. 1
CFP quarterfinal at the Capital One Orange BowlHard Rock Stadium (Miami Gardens, Florida)Noon, ESPNBonagura: No. 6 Texas Tech vs. No. 3 MiamiSchlabach: No. 6 Oklahoma vs. No. 3 Miami
CFP quarterfinal at the Rose Bowl Game presented by PrudentialRose Bowl (Pasadena, California)4 p.m., ESPNBonagura: No. 9 Georgia vs. No. 1 Ohio StateSchlabach: No. 8 Alabama vs. No. 1 Ohio State
CFP quarterfinal at the Allstate Sugar Bowl Caesars Superdome (New Orleans)8 p.m., ESPNBonagura: No. 5 Oklahoma vs. No. 4 Ole MissSchlabach: No. 5 Texas A&M vs. No. 4 Ole Miss
Quarterfinals breakdown
Bonagura: The byes in my bracket went to the same four teams as last week: Ohio State, Oregon, Miami and Ole Miss. You can make the case for any of them at No. 1, so splitting hairs this early in the season doesn’t accomplish much.
Of the four, Miami feels like the closest to a sure thing to reach the playoff with the schedule it has remaining, but I wouldn’t be surprised if there is a hiccup somewhere along the way. The other three should also be part of the field in the end, but by no means do their places in the top four feel permanent.
The enhanced ESPN App
Watch your favorite events in the newly upgraded ESPN App. Learn more about what plan is right for you. Sign Up Now
Schlabach: My top three teams remained unchanged after Ohio State routed Minnesota 42-3 and Miami beat another ranked team, this time on the road with a 28-22 victory at rival Florida State.
I flipped Ole Miss and Texas A&M for the fourth spot, although I think an argument could be made that either of those teams, plus Oklahoma or Indiana, could be in the top four. We’ll find out a lot more about the Hoosiers when they travel across the country to play at Oregon on Saturday.
Oklahoma plays struggling Texas in the Red River Rivalry in the Cotton Bowl on Saturday, and it seems doubtful the Sooners will have star quarterback John Mateer, who is recovering from hand surgery.
CFP semifinals, national championship game
Thursday, Jan. 8
CFP semifinal at the Vrbo Fiesta BowlState Farm Stadium (Glendale, Arizona)7:30 p.m., ESPNBonagura: No. 4 Ole Miss vs. No. 1 Ohio StateSchlabach: No. 3 Miami vs. No. 2 Oregon
Friday, Jan. 9
CFP semifinal at the Chick-fil-A Peach BowlMercedes-Benz Stadium (Atlanta)7:30 p.m., ESPNBonagura: No. 3 Miami vs. No. 2 OregonSchlabach: No. 4 Ole Miss vs. No. 1 Ohio State
Monday, Jan. 19
CFP National ChampionshipHard Rock Stadium (Miami Gardens, Florida)7:45 p.m., ESPNBonagura: No. 2 Oregon vs. No. 1 Ohio StateSchlabach: No. 2 Oregon vs. No. 1 Ohio State
National championship breakdown
Bonagura: Ohio State’s defense continues to dominate at a championship level, and until somebody — anybody — cracks the code and manages to reach the elusive land of double-digit points against the Buckeyes, they are the favorite to repeat. This week’s trip to Illinois could be interesting, but the Illini are only a few weeks removed from a 53-point loss to Indiana, and the stain of that game is hard to forget.
Schlabach: I have my top four seeds advancing to the semifinals, and the odds of that happening probably aren’t good. Ohio State, Oregon and Miami look like the top three teams in the FBS. After that, it’s anyone’s guess as to who the No. 4 team might end up being.
An Oregon-Miami matchup in the Fiesta Bowl would provide an intriguing quarterback battle between two transfers: the Ducks’ Dante Moore (UCLA) and the Hurricanes’ Carson Beck (Georgia). It would also be a bit of a grudge match because Miami coach Mario Cristobal spent four-plus seasons as Oregon’s coach before returning to his alma mater in 2022. The Buckeyes would probably be favorites to beat the Rebels in the Peach Bowl, but it would provide a great chess match between Lane Kiffin’s high-flying offense and Matt Patricia’s stingy defense.
Complete bowl season schedule
Saturday, Dec. 13
Cricket Celebration BowlMercedes-Benz Stadium (Atlanta)Noon, ABCBonagura: Alabama State vs. North Carolina CentralSchlabach: Jackson State vs. North Carolina Central
LA BowlSoFi Stadium (Inglewood, California)9 p.m., ESPNBonagura: Arizona vs. UNLVSchlabach: Washington vs. Boise State
Tuesday, Dec. 16
IS4S Salute to Veterans BowlCramton Bowl (Montgomery, Alabama)9 p.m., ESPNBonagura: UConn vs. TroySchlabach: Jacksonville State vs. Coastal Carolina
Wednesday, Dec. 17
StaffDNA Cure BowlCamping World Stadium (Orlando, Florida)5 p.m., ESPNBonagura: Ball State vs. Appalachian StateSchlabach: Western Michigan vs. Troy
68 Ventures BowlHancock Whitney Stadium (Mobile, Alabama)8:30 p.m., ESPNBonagura: Louisiana-Monroe vs. New Mexico StateSchlabach: Old Dominion vs. Buffalo
Friday, Dec. 19
Myrtle Beach BowlBrooks Stadium (Conway, South Carolina)Noon, ESPNBonagura: Ohio vs. Jacksonville StateSchlabach: East Carolina vs. James Madison
Union Home Mortgage Gasparilla BowlRaymond James Stadium (Tampa, Florida)3:30 p.m., ESPNBonagura: North Texas vs. ClemsonSchlabach: Michigan State vs. Syracuse
Monday, Dec. 22
Famous Idaho Potato BowlAlbertsons Stadium (Boise, Idaho)2 p.m., ESPNBonagura: Toledo vs. Fresno StateSchlabach: Ohio vs. Utah State
Tuesday, Dec. 23
Editor’s Picks
2 Related
Boca Raton BowlFlagler Credit Union Stadium (Boca Raton, Florida)2 p.m., ESPNBonagura: Florida Atlantic vs. Southern MissSchlabach: Cincinnati vs. Toledo
New Orleans Bowl Caesars Superdome (New Orleans)5:30 p.m., ESPNBonagura: James Madison vs. Louisiana TechSchlabach: Louisiana-Monroe vs. Louisiana Tech
Scooter’s Coffee Frisco BowlFord Center at The Star (Frisco, Texas)9 p.m., ESPNBonagura: Utah State vs. CaliforniaSchlabach: North Texas vs. Kennesaw State
Wednesday, Dec. 24
Sheraton Hawai’i BowlClarence T.C. Ching Athletics Complex (Honolulu)8 p.m., ESPNBonagura: Hawai’i vs. Washington StateSchlabach: Hawai’i vs. Tulane
Friday, Dec. 26
GameAbove Sports BowlFord Field (Detroit)1 p.m., ESPNBonagura: Minnesota vs. Western MichiganSchlabach: Minnesota vs. Central Michigan
Rate BowlChase Field (Phoenix)4:30 p.m., ESPNBonagura: Kansas vs. IowaSchlabach: Baylor vs. Maryland
SERVPRO First Responder BowlGerald J. Ford Stadium (Dallas)8 p.m., ESPNBonagura: Temple vs. Old DominionSchlabach: SMU vs. UNLV
Saturday, Dec. 27
Go Bowling Military BowlNavy-Marine Corps Memorial Stadium (Annapolis, Maryland)11 a.m., ESPNBonagura: SMU vs. East CarolinaSchlabach: Duke vs. Navy
Bad Boy Mowers Pinstripe BowlYankee Stadium (Bronx, New York)Noon, ABCBonagura: Louisville vs. MarylandSchlabach: Louisville vs. Iowa
Wasabi Fenway BowlFenway Park (Boston)2:15 p.m., ESPNBonagura: Pittsburgh vs. TulaneSchlabach: Pittsburgh vs. Memphis
Pop-Tarts BowlCamping World Stadium (Orlando, Florida)3:30 p.m., ABCBonagura: Virginia vs. TCUSchlabach: Georgia Tech vs. BYU
Snoop Dogg Arizona BowlArizona Stadium (Tucson, Arizona)4:30 p.m., CW NetworkBonagura: Buffalo vs. San Diego StateSchlabach: Bowling Green vs. Fresno State
Isleta New Mexico BowlUniversity Stadium (Albuquerque, New Mexico)5:45 p.m., ESPNBonagura: Boise State vs. Kansas StateSchlabach: San Diego State vs. Texas State
TaxSlayer Gator BowlEverBank Stadium (Jacksonville, Florida)7:30 p.m. ABCBonagura: Florida State vs. LSUSchlabach: Virginia vs. South Carolina
Kinder’s Texas BowlNRG Stadium (Houston)9:15 p.m., ESPNBonagura: Houston vs. VanderbiltSchlabach: TCU vs. Texas
Monday, Dec. 29
JLab Birmingham BowlProtective Stadium (Birmingham, Alabama)2 p.m., ESPNBonagura: Mississippi State vs. NavySchlabach: UConn vs. NC State
Tuesday, Dec. 30
Radiance Technologies Independence BowlIndependence Stadium (Shreveport, Louisiana)2 p.m., ESPNBonagura: Baylor vs. Western KentuckySchlabach: Houston vs. Western Kentucky
Music City BowlNissan Stadium (Nashville, Tennessee)5:30 p.m., ESPNBonagura: Penn State vs. South CarolinaSchlabach: Illinois vs. Mississippi State
Valero Alamo BowlAlamodome (San Antonio)9 p.m., ESPNBonagura: BYU vs. WashingtonSchlabach: Utah vs. USC
Wednesday, Dec. 31
ReliaQuest BowlRaymond James Stadium (Tampa, Florida)Noon, ESPNBonagura: Michigan vs. TexasSchlabach: Penn State vs. Missouri
Tony the Tiger Sun BowlSun Bowl Stadium (El Paso, Texas)2 p.m., CBSBonagura: Duke vs. USCSchlabach: Clemson vs. Arizona
Cheez-It Citrus BowlCamping World Stadium (Orlando, Florida)3 p.m., ABCBonagura: Illinois vs. MissouriSchlabach: Michigan vs. Tennessee
SRS Distribution Las Vegas BowlAllegiant Stadium (Las Vegas)3:30 p.m., ESPNBonagura: Nebraska vs. UtahSchlabach: Nebraska vs. California
Friday, Jan. 2
Lockheed Martin Armed Forces BowlAmon G. Carter Stadium (Fort Worth, Texas)1 p.m., ESPNBonagura: UCF vs. South FloridaSchlabach: Kansas vs. Temple
AutoZone Liberty BowlSimmons Bank Liberty Stadium (Memphis, Tennessee)4:30 p.m., ESPNBonagura: Cincinnati vs. AuburnSchlabach: Iowa State vs. Auburn
Duke’s Mayo BowlBank of America Stadium (Charlotte, North Carolina)8 p.m., ESPNBonagura: NC State vs. TennesseeSchlabach: Florida State vs. Vanderbilt
Holiday BowlSnapdragon Stadium (San Diego)8 p.m., FoxBonagura: Notre Dame vs. Arizona StateSchlabach: Notre Dame vs. Arizona State
