A walk often sets up a team to score a run. An intentional walk? Well, that can either be a smart strategic move or lead to a big inning. We take a look at what the data tells us about hitting performance following a free pass.
Many events in sports offer motivation for an opponent.
Criticism of a player, team or fanbase in the media before a key matchup can “pour gasoline on the fire,” increasing a team’s desire to win. A tough loss the year prior against the same opponent can act as a catalyst for revenge. A player’s move to a new team can provide extra incentive to defeat his former franchise.
But what about intentionally walking an opposing hitter? Deliberately avoiding one hitter in favor of facing the next is a serious statement. The manager is indirectly telling the second hitter he is so much easier to get out than the previous batter that it’s worth giving up a free base in order to face him.
This was the case when the Los Angeles Dodgers chose to intentionally walk Francisco Lindor, the New York Mets star who was the eventual runner-up for National League MVP, to load the bases in a crucial Game 2 of the NL Championship Series during the 2024 postseason.
Like many hitters, the following batter, Mark Vientos, said after the game he “took it personal,” referring to this perceived slight from Dodgers manager Dave Roberts. Vientos proceeded to hit a grand slam to put the Mets up 6-0, and they went on to win the game 7-3.
By dividing all plate appearances (PAs) into two groups, one in which the appearance followed an intentional walk and one in which it did not, statistical averages of hitters in each group can be compared to examine this potential impact.
From 2021-23, hitters performed worse after the preceding batter was intentionally walked in nearly all offensive metrics. The average slugging percentage in PAs following an intentional walk was .361, compared to a slug of .412 in all other PAs during this time. On-base percentages were also 6.0 points lower after a free pass, leading to a staggering 0.057 point gap between the .676 league-wide average OPS after an intentional walk and a .733 OPS in other PAs.
Hitters completely turned this trend on its head in 2024, producing better numbers immediately after intentional walks. And we’re not exactly talking about a small sample size, as 507 plate appearances took place after an intentional walk during the 2024 regular season.
Batters who batted immediately following an intentional walk had an on-base percentage of .345 compared to a .314 for hitters in all other PAs. Slugging percentages were also higher in hitters after intentional walks, with an average slug of .414 compared to .400 in other PAs.
This combined difference led to a .045-point difference in OPS as the groups’ averages were .759 and .714, respectively.
These aren’t the only offensive categories that reflected this shift in performance after intentional walks in the 2024 season. From 2021-23, hitters averaged a strikeout every 4.2 PAs and a home run every 44.7 PAs after an intentional walk. In 2024, they struck out less often, once every 4.9 PAs, yet hit more home runs, averaging one every 42.2 PAs.
This drastic swing in performance following intentional walks in 2024 begs some questions: What caused this change? Was it physical, mental, or merely a coincidence?
It’s important to recognize that several factors may explain an increase in performance with at least one runner on base, which is typically when intentional walks occur. The lesser margin for error also leads to pitchers moving off the corners and into the meaty part of the strike zone. This has likely played a role in hitters having a jump in production from when there’s no one on base (.237 batting average/.701 OPS) compared to when at least one runner is on base (.255/.746) over the past four seasons.
Intentional walks also often place at least one runner in scoring position, causing pitchers to adjust pitch selection and location in an attempt to induce ground balls or strikeouts. Hitters’ performance increases even further in these situations, reaching it’s peak with the bases loaded (.268 batting average/.763 OPS).
These factors make the decrease in performance after an intentional walk from 2021-23 even more shocking while providing plausible explanations for the increase in performance in 2024.
There has been a dramatic league-wide decrease in intentional walks over the years, but the decisions that have driven this change haven’t come from the quantified increase in performance of the subsequent hitter during the 2024 season.
Instead, in baseball’s age of analytically based decision-making, teams place greater importance on preventing hitters from getting on base in all contexts, especially with the emphasis on power hitting in recent years and uptick in homers, as a solo homer does far less damage than a game-altering multi-run blast.
When factoring batters’ improved hitting after intentional walks, this reduction in free passes likely decreased the runs teams were expected to allow in 2024 by more than management even realizes.
In any sport, it’s exceptionally rare that a specific situation leads player performance to decrease for multiple seasons, before shifting to encourage an increase in performance. A change in mental attitudes of hitters provides the most likely explanation for this change. As cognitive performance becomes increasingly emphasized in sports, hitters can be taught how to properly reframe the opposing team’s desire to face them and use it as motivation.
It’s not often managers have the ability to utilize data to demonstrate psychological effects or changes, potentially giving their team an advantage. In a sport like baseball, where one swing can define an entire season, managers like Dave Roberts must make choices to put their team in the best position to win, every single pitch.
With the chance to give their team an edge over opponents, psychologically based analysis can provide explanations for statistical anomalies like this one, offering a new avenue for strategic success in MLB.
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