Penn State’s defense hasn’t made opportunistic stops during the three-game skid. The Nittany Lions couldn’t prevent the running game from finding success against Northwestern. The numbers still look strong, but they continue to slide.
On the other side, Iowa’s offense still hasn’t found a lot of success despite constant additions each season. The Hawkeyes continue to be a low-scoring, defensive-heavy team.
Do the numbers line up with the eye test, or is this matchup as lopsided as expected on paper?
Stats and rankings are from CFBStats.com.
Passing yards per game
Iowa offense: 142 ypg (130th in the nation)Penn State defense: 157.8 ypg (14th)
Penn State’s defense has still limited quarterbacks in its losses. The secondary, despite multiple switches, has remained in lockdown, for the most part. On average, the passing game is allowing just 157 yards per game on average. Compared to Iowa’s 142 passing yards, quarterback Mark Gronowski should throw right around 150 yards.
Now, with a hostile environment behind them, the Hawkeyes’ passing game may get a boost. However, the Penn State defense could play spirited football behind interim coach Terry Smith.
Passing yards per attempt
Iowa offense: 5.6 ypa (132nd)Penn State defense: 5.6 ypa (12th)
As even as it will get. If the game truly follows the tale of the tape, every Iowa pass will be a little under six yards. Obviously, that won’t happen, but it gives an idea of the passing game. The Hawkeyes don’t complete deep passes often. Gronowski’s deepest completion is 45 yards against UMass. When he faced better Big Ten defenses, the longest completion was just 21 yards in a loss against Indiana. Gronowski will face yet another good Big Ten defense in the Nittany Lions’ strong defensive back core, who’ve limited deep passes throughout all six games this season.
Rushing yards per game
Iowa offense: 184 ypg (44th)Penn State defense: 144.33 ypg (71st)
A much better part of Iowa’s offense is the running game. Additionally, Penn State’s run defense hasn’t lived up to expectations. The unit was supposed to be one of the top in the country, but is currently sitting at 71st in the country. Running backs Kamari Moulton and Xavier Williams hold similar numbers on the season. In addition to the RB duo, Gronowski has been a threat on the ground, especially scoring, with eight touchdowns on the season. The Nittany Lions’ defensive line will have to take a step up, including lineman Zane Durant and Dani Dennis-Sutton, who’ve been relatively silent in recent weeks.
Rushing yards per attempt
Iowa offense: 4.66 ypa (50th)Penn State defense: 3.61 ypa (46th)
Iowa could continue to push Penn State’s numbers further down the rankings. Williams is averaging a staggering 7.3 yards per attempt with a long on the season of 43 yards. With this, it forces the second line to step up for a defense like Penn State. With the absence of Tony Rojas for the rest of the season, Dom DeLuca and company will have to step up to fill the void of the fast linebacker. Linebacker Amare Campbell has done about all he possibly can, especially after Rojas’ injury. Campbell has put himself in the conversation for the best player on defense, and with the green dot added on, he’s likely the most important on the team.
Points per game
Iowa offense: 30.7 ppg (52nd)Penn State defense: 18.5 ppg (27th)
The number has quickly risen in Penn State’s defense’s points allowed. After allowing 30, 42 and 22 points in three losses, the number has gone way up after allowing just 17 points in the first three games. The defense hasn’t lived up to expectations, but the Nittany Lions’ unit still is limiting teams. It has been more of a bend-but-don’t-break defense, but when it’s mattered most, the group got broken. Iowa’s offense is scoring 30 points per game on average, but hasn’t faced a complete defense like Penn State’s often. The closest thing to the Nittany Lions’ defense was Indiana’s. The blue and white have the opportunity to keep things low scoring to let new quarterback Ethan Grunkemeyer settle in.
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