A month ago, Indiana (7-0, 4-0 Big Ten) may have looked at this weekend’s game against UCLA (3-4, 3-1 Big Ten) as little more than a bye week. Today, however, the 2nd-ranked Hoosiers of Indiana are hosting one of the hottest teams in the country when they welcome the Bruins to Bloomington.
Coaching matters. Full stop.
Since taking over for DeShaun Foster, Tim Skipper has reinvigorated the program. The Bruins have knocked off Penn State, Michigan State, and Maryland the last three weeks. Suddenly, what looked like quite possibly the worst Power 5 school may well qualify for a postseason bowl. Amazing turnaround.
The Hoosiers continue their ascent up the polls ranking now No. 2 in the nation. Indiana is now a football school. Curt Cignetti quickly signing a massive extension with Indiana squelching the distraction that would have followed with a potential exit for Penn State. The focus is solely on winning a national championship.
Game Details and How to watch UCLA at No. 2 Indiana
Date: Saturday, October 25, 2025Time: 12:00PM EasternSite: Memorial StadiumCity: Bloomington, INTV/Streaming: Fox
Game Odds for UCLA at Indiana
The latest odds courtesy of DraftKings:
Moneyline: Indiana Hoosiers (-3200), UCLA Bruins (+1400)Spread: Indiana -25.5 (-110)Total: 51.5 points
Be sure to check out DraftKings for all the latest game odds & player props for every matchup this week on the college football schedule!
Indiana Hoosiers
Head Coach: Curt Cignetti2025 Record: 7-0Offense Ranking: 11Defense Ranking: 4Strength of Schedule: 34
Indiana has emerged as one of the nation’s most complete teams, brandishing a 7-0 record and a Top 3 SP+ ranking under head coach Curt Cignetti. The Hoosiers pair an elite offense (11th SP+) that ranks first nationally in success rate (55.9%) with a dominant defense (4th SP+) that allows just 0.89 points per drive and ranks Top 5 in both efficiency and havoc rate. Indiana’s balance is reflected in its per-play dominance, as the offense averages 7.24 yards per play (8th) while the defense surrenders only 4.48 (14th), yielding a staggering +32.3 scoring margin through seven games! Efficient, explosive, and disciplined (4th in fewest penalty yards per game), Indiana is a legitimate Big Ten and College Football Playoff contender with a 91% postseason probability and the metrics to sustain it.
The Indiana Hoosiers Offense
Indiana’s offense has become a national standard bearer, ranking 11th in Offensive SP+ and first in success rate (55.9%). The Hoosiers average 7.24 yards per play (8th) and an impressive 3.62 points per drive (4th), thriving on balance with a 52.5% rushing success rate (11th) and a 60.6% passing success rate (2nd). Quarterback play behind Cal transfer Fernando Mendoza has been elite, generating 0.50 EPA per dropback (2nd) and an adjusted net yards per attempt of 13.2 (3rd) behind an offensive line that allows pressure on just 1.8% of dropbacks. Combining top-tier efficiency, elite explosiveness, and disciplined execution, Indiana’s offense has powered a +32.3 average scoring margin and is among the most complete units in all of college football.
Indiana Player to Watch on Offense: QB Fernando Mendoza
Fernando Mendoza has blossomed into one of the most efficient and dynamic quarterbacks in the nation, completing 72.7% of his passes for 1,755 yards, 21 touchdowns, and just two interceptions through seven starts. He’s thriving in Indiana’s potent attack with a 9.6 yards-per-attempt average, an 80.1% adjusted completion rate, and earning a strong 83.1 passing grade. Mendoza’s poise under pressure stands out, as he’s been sacked on only 10.3% of pressures and has produced a laudable 136.3 NFL passer rating with 7 big-time throws to just 3 turnover-worthy plays. Combined with his dual-threat ability (190 rushing yards, 2 TDs), Mendoza has emerged as arguably the top signal caller in the Big Ten and a 1st Round NFL Draft caliber pro talent.
The Indiana Hoosiers Defense
Indiana’s defense has been nothing short of elite, ranking 4th nationally in SP+ while holding opponents to just 4.48 yards per play and 0.89 points per drive, both Top 5 marks in the country. The Hoosiers thrive on disruption, leading the nation with a 24.7% overall havoc rate, including an 11.3% defensive line havoc rate and 35.6% sack conversion rate on pressures, numero uno in FBS. Opposing offenses are suffocated by Indiana’s efficiency, managing only a 32.1% success rate (4th) and a 20% red-zone touchdown rate (2nd). With elite tackling efficiency (91.8%, 4th) and suffocating zone coverage that allows just 4.1 yards per dropback, Indiana’s defense has been the foundation of its undefeated run and national Top 3 ranking.
Player to Watch: Edge Kellan Wyatt
Kellan Wyatt has been a terror off the edge, recording 30 total tackles, 9.5 tackles for loss, and 2.5 sacks across six games while maintaining a stellar 93.8% tackle rate. His 12.0 havoc plays and 10 run stops showcase a relentless motor and ability to impact both phases, making him one of Indiana’s most complete front-seven defenders. As a pass- rusher, Wyatt has generated six pressures on 65 rushes (9.2%), consistently winning on key downs and forcing hurried throws. His combination of edge discipline, burst, and production has made him a cornerstone of the Hoosiers’ aggressive defensive front.
Virginia must avoid let down spot against UNC
With North Carolina struggling mightily as they host Virginia, Vaughn Dalzell and Eric Froton do not think Virginia can avoid the let down spot but have little faith in North Carolina being able to complete the upset.
UCLA Bruins
Head Coach: Tim Skipper2025 Record: 3-4Offense Ranking: 73Defense Ranking: 72Strength of Schedule: 4
UCLA has stabilized after dismissing first-year head coach DeShaun Foster, rebounding from a rough 0–4 start to win three straight and reach 3–4 overall (3–1 Pac-12) while ranking 68th in SP+. The nation has been taken by storm by my blond doppelganger, The Great Jerry Neuheisel, with UCLA now ranking 73rd in Offensive SP+, powered by a 47.8% rushing success rate (34th) and 5.7 yards per carry (25th). However, the defense remains a major liability, ranking 134th nationally in success rate allowed (49.2%) and 119th in EPA/play, struggling to contain both the run (54.0% rush success rate allowed) and explosive passing attacks. With a brutal remaining schedule that includes Indiana, Ohio State, and USC, the Bruins’ bowl odds sit at just 1.1%.
The UCLA Bruins Offense
UCLA’s offense has been rescued from the ashes by OC Neuheisel, ranking 73rd in Offensive SP+ with flashes of explosiveness in the run game. The Bruins are generating 5.68 yards per play (72nd) and a 45.4% success rate (44th), leaning on a ground attack that averages 5.7 yards per carry (25th) and converts 47.8% of rushing plays into positive gains. Despite a 64.6% completion rate and respectable 6.3 yards per dropback, pass protection remains a concern — UCLA ranks 123rd nationally in pressures allowed and 136th in offensive line penalties per game. With a 2.15 points-per-drive average and 60.9% red-zone touchdown rate, the Bruins move the ball effectively but struggle to finish drives against stronger defenses, though they have been light-years better during their current 3-game win streak.
UCLA Player to Watch on Offense: QB Nico Iamaleava
Freshman quarterback Nico Iamaleava has picked up his level of play and found his stride, throwing for 1,355 yards and 10 touchdowns while completing 65.2% of his passes across seven starts. Though his 6.7 adjusted net yards per attempt and 46.6% success rate suggest room for growth in consistency, he’s shown flashes of vertical ability with 10.0 yards per completion. On the ground, Iamaleava has been a difference-maker, rushing for 441 yards (7.6 YPC) and four touchdowns, with a 58.6% rushing success rate and 17.6% of carries gaining 10+ yards. His ability to make plays out of structure makes Nico one of the most versatile young quarterbacks in the country, though limiting turnovers (five interceptions, three fumbles) remains an area for refinement.
The UCLA Bruins Defense
UCLA’s defense has been fairly uninspiring, ranking 72nd in Defensive SP+ and dead last (134th) in both success rate (49.2%) and rushing success rate allowed (54.0%). The Bruins have struggled mightily to stop explosive plays, giving up 5.4 yards per carry (119th) and 9.0 adjusted net yards per pass attempt, with opponents averaging 2.63 points per drive (120th). Their pass rush has been nearly non-existent, ranking 132nd in sacks per dropback (2.8%) with a ghastly 136th in pressure rate (15.4%), while the unit ranks bottom-five nationally in havoc creation and negative plays. Despite the lackluster overall metrics, the Bruins have outperformed their defensive SP+ projections by at least a touchdown in each of their last four games since HC Foster’s dismissal.
UCLA Player to Watch on Defense: CB Rodrick Pleasant
Cornerback Rodrick Pleasant has been a standout in coverage for UCLA, combining lockdown man skills with disruptive instincts. Across 152 coverage snaps, Pleasant has allowed completions on just 31.6% of his 19 targets for 65 total yards, producing an elite 15.1 defensive QBR allowed and forcing four pass breakups. He’s also added six havoc plays, including 1.5 tackles for loss and a fumble recovery, showing a willingness to contribute in run support as well. Pleasant’s blend of speed, ball skills (3.4 yards per target) makes him a cornerstone of UCLA’s secondary.
UCLA at No. 2 Indiana team stats, betting trends
Indiana has won 16 of its last 19 at homeUCLA has covered the Spread in 7 of its last 8 games as a road underdogIndiana’s last 4 home games have gone OVER the TotalIndiana has outscored opponents 58-17 in the first half of its last 3 games
Mendoza, Simpson among Heisman favorites
Pro Football Focus delves into Heisman trophy favorites including Indiana’s Fernando Mendoza, Alabama’s Ty Simpson, Ohio State’s Julian Sayin, Vanderbilt’s Diego Pavia and Texas A&M’s Marcel Reed.
Rotoworld Best Bets
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Eric Froton (@CFFroton): UCLA Bruins +25.5
I can’t help but think this 25.5-point line is a shot at Golden Boy OC Jerry Neuheisel after he replaced former Indiana OC and Curt Cignetti protege, Tino Sunseri, undeniably eclipsing Sunseri’s woeful performance. Remember, Indiana only defeated Old Dominion 27-14, Iowa 20-15, Oregon 30-20 and even a pitiful Michigan State team covered this 25.5-point spread last week (35-10). No, I’m not saying the prodigal son of Pasadena, Neuheisel, will lead an outright upset of Indiana. However, I do think that a road cover is well within reach given their recent three game surge. So, I’m taking UCLA and the 25.5-points to cover versus the seemingly invincible Hoosiers. In Jerry We Trust.
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Our model calculates projections around each moneyline, spread and over/under bet for every game on the NCAAF calendar based on data points like past performance, player matchups, stadium information and weather forecasts.
Once the model is finished running, we put its projection next to the latest betting lines for the game to arrive at a relative confidence level for each wager.
Best bets our model is projecting for this week’s game between UCLA and No. 2 Indiana
Moneyline: NBC Sports Bet is staying away from a play on the Moneyline.Spread: NBC Sports Bet is leaning towards a play ATS on the UCLA Bruins at +25.5.Total: NBC Sports Bet is recommending a play on the under on the Game Total of 54.5.
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