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No. 6 Notre Dame at No. 10 Miami prediction: Odds, expert picks, team overviews, key players, and stats

August 29, 2025
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South Beach is the site of one of college football’s most anticipated Week 1 games as No. 6 Notre Dame renews what was once THE RIVALRY in college football when they take the field against the No. 10 Miami Hurricanes.

While Sunday’s matchup carries with it plenty of hype, the rivalry stole the attention of more than just the college football community in the 1980s. Without question the “Catholics vs. Convicts” game in 1988 sits atop the sea of memorable games between these schools. On that Saturday afternoon, undefeated Notre Dame defeated top-ranked Miami, 31-30.

In 2025, the Irish will be led by highly touted freshman CJ Carr. The Canes’ Carson Beck makes his first start since transferring from Georgia.

Lets dive into the game and these two teams and perhaps we’ll find a couple of sweats along the way.

Game Details and How to watch Notre Dame vs. Miami

Date: Sunday, August 31, 2025Time: 7:30P EasternSite: Hard Rock StadiumCity: Miami Gardens, FLTV/Streaming: ABC

Game Odds for Notre Dame vs. Miami

The latest odds as of Friday courtesy of DraftKings:

Moneyline: Notre Dame Fighting Irish (-142), Miami Hurricanes (+120)Spread: Notre Dame -2.5Total: 49.5 points

Be sure to check out DraftKings for all the latest game odds & player props for every matchup this week on the college football schedule!

Expect another ‘well-rounded’ Notre Dame team

Nicole Auerbach and Joshua Perry explain why the College Football Playoff is “set up well” for Notre Dame and break down the team’s quarterback competition ahead of another season under Marcus Freeman.

Notre Dame Fighting Irish

Head Coach: Marcus Freeman (4th year)2024 Record: 14-2 Bowl/Playoff Appearance: Lost to Ohio State 34-23 in the National ChampionshipOffense Ranking: 4thOffensive Returning Starters: 6Defense Ranking: 7thDefensive Returning Starters: 6

Notre Dame is brimming with confidence coming off a National Championship game appearance and having the distinction of hosting the first CFP Playoff game to ever be held on a college campus when they defeated Indiana 27-17 in South Bend. The Irish averaged a 20.6 PPG margin of victory in the country with Top 10 marks in offensive yards per play (6.70, 9th), points per drive (3.25, 8th) and defensive EPA per play (2nd). ND returns only 47.1% of their offensive production (82nd nationally) but manage to offset that deficit by a return of 63.9% of their defensive production (20th) to wreak havoc upon the FBS.

Notre Dame’s Offense

Notre Dame’s offense finished 10th nationally in scoring (36.1 PPG) and 9th in yards per play (6.70), powered by a Top 10 EPA/play mark (0.332, 8th). However, only 47.1% of offensive production returns (82nd nationally), meaning OC Mike Denbrock must replace significant contributors at QB, OL, WR/TE. Still, the offensive line remains among the best units in the country (54 starts), and the scheme’s proven effectiveness (5.7 YPC LY) gives the Irish a stable foundation as a new signal caller steps in. Transfer wideouts Malachi Fields and Will Pauling join Jaden Greathouse to help revitalize an uninspiring receiver group and help new starter/freshman CJ Carr acclimate.

HB Jeremiyah Love emerged as Notre Dame’s most dynamic offensive weapon in 2024, rushing for 1,125 yards at 6.9 yards per carry with 17 touchdowns while adding 28 receptions for 237 yards. His 62 avoided tackles and 52.5% breakaway run rate highlight his explosive playmaking ability. With a 91.0 PFF offensive grade, he is the centerpiece of the Irish backfield entering 2025.

Notre Dame’s Defense

On defense, the Irish were certifiably elite, allowing just 15.5 PPG (4th nationally), with opponents held to 4.53 yards per play (6th) and a 36.6% success rate (13th). The defense also ranked 2nd nationally in points per drive allowed (1.06), showing elite situational play. With 63.9% of defensive production returning (20th nationally), Notre Dame should again field one of the stingiest units in the country.

EDGE Joshua Burnham played in 14 games, recording 30 tackles, 3 TFLs, and 2 sacks across 467 snaps. He generated 13 total pressures with a 61.0 pass-rush grade, showing stretches of disruption but still searching for consistency. His overall 68.4 PFF grade reflects solid run defense acumen (69.9) and room for growth as a pass rusher.

Miami has value at +200 to make CFP

Drew Dinsick and Vaughn Dalzell examine the betting market for Miami this season, discussing why the Hurricanes hold value at +200 to make the College Football Playoff.

Miami Hurricanes

Head Coach: Mario Cristobal (4th season)2024 Record: 10–3 (6–2 ACC)Bowl/Playoff Appearance: Lost Pop-Tarts Bowl vs. Iowa State 42-41Offense SP+ Rank (2024): 43rdReturning Starters (Offense): 7Defense SP+ Rank (2024): 28thReturning Starters (Defense): 8

The 2024 Miami Hurricanes rebounded with a strong 10–3 season, including a 6–2 mark in ACC play. Behind one of the conference’s most balanced rosters and the arrival of elite Georgia QB transfer Carson Beck, Miami enters 2025 as a legitimate ACC title threat. The offensive line allowed 23 sacks on the year despite an extremely high pass volume and brings back multiple NFL prospects. Defensively, Rueben Bain headlines a disruptive front that helped lift Miami to Top 30 finishes in most advanced metrics. With continuity, trench strength, and a manageable schedule, the Hurricanes are a true playoff contender.

Miami Hurricanes’ Offense

Carson Beck takes the reins after an elite 2024 at Georgia where he threw for 3,485 yards, 28 touchdowns, and 12 interceptions. He completed 64.7% of his passes and posted a 83.3 PFF grade, including a 75.3% adjusted completion rate. Beck brings advanced accuracy and experience to a Miami offense that exploded under the leadership of Cam Ward.

The offensive line is a major strength, combining for 87 starts. RT Francis Mauigoa headlines the group as a projected first-round NFL pick having allowed just one sack in 530 pass sets last year. Anez Cooper, Matthew McCoy, and TCU transfer James Brockermeyer round out a veteran group that finished Top 20 in line yards and power success rate nationally.

Miami Hurricanes’ Defense

Rueben Bain returns while 1st Team All-CUSA DT David Blay adds interior disruption and versatility against both the run and pass, while veteran DL Akheem Mesidor (5.5 sacks) returns and can line up anywhere along the front to exploit favorable matchups.

The secondary is anchored by CB Xavier Lucas, who allowed a 52% completion rate and passer rating of 70.4 when targeted at Wisconsin. Starting field corner OJ Frederique started the last six games allowing a stingy 39% catch rate when targeted with a 78th percentile defensive grade. FS Zechariah Poyser earned Third Team All-CUSA recognition after posting 75 tackles with eight PBUs for Jacksonville State in 2024.

Rotoworld Bet Best Bets

Please bet responsibly. If you or someone you know has a gambling problem, call the National Gambling Helpline at 1-800-522-4700.

Eric Froton (@CFFroton): Jordan Faison, WR, Notre Dame at Miami: Under 32.5 Receiving Yards

A favorite of mine upon first open, Faison has gotten beaten down from 39.5 to the 30-32.5 range. His role is expected to be diminished with the transfer in of WRs Malachi Fields and Will Pauling, who join Jaden Greathouse who recorded 100+ yards and a TD in each of NDs final two playoff games. Throw in CJ Carr making his first start on the road to Miami, and this is a strong Under 32.5 Receiving Yards.

Vaughn Dalzell (@VmoneySports): Game Total Under 49.5 (-110)

With thunderstorms expected, high heat, and that sticky Florida weather at Hard Rock Stadium on Sunday, this could get ugly. Both teams break in new quarterbacks and have Top 15 defenses on the other side of the ball, plus physical running backs. The coaching edge goes to Marcus Freeman and company, but Mario Cristobal is a defensive-minded guy, too. This game could be chess (long drives, 4th down conversions, trick plays), not checkers, so I like the Under.

If you are looking for help with your weekly College Football picks, NBC Sports has you covered with game odds, betting tools, and player prop projections.

Follow our experts on socials to keep up with all the latest content from the staff:

Vaughn Dalzell (@VmoneySports)Eric Froton (@CFFroton)Trysta Krick (@Trysta_Krick)Jay Croucher (@croucherJD)Drew Dinsick (@whale_capper)



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