With the help of the Opta supercomputer, we provide our Premier League match predictions for every match in each gameweek.
The Opta supercomputer will be with us every step of the way this season as the projection model works to provide you with data-backed predictions for all Premier League matches and season outcomes.
Our AI-powered supercomputer proved rather prescient in 2023-24 and is continuing to make predictions for every fixture this season.
Read on as Opta Analyst provides its Premier League match predictions for 2024-25, and be sure to check back here ahead of every matchday for the latest projections.
Matchday 30
The Opta supercomputer has delivered its latest selection of match predictions ahead of the next round of Premier League football in 2024-25.
Our predictive model has made its picks for the upcoming group of matches, with the league table having now firmly taken shape as we near the closing stages of the season.
Liverpool start this week with a 12-point advantage over Arsenal at the top of the standings, with Nottingham Forest also sitting comfortably inside the top four.
And Matchday 30 will see matches spread across Tuesday, Wednesday and Thursday in a bumper midweek round, before there are further games this weekend.
Arsenal host Fulham in one of three Tuesday clashes, looking to reduce Liverpool’s lead before the Reds play a day later.
Liverpool host rivals Everton in the second Merseyside derby of the season as one of six contests taking place on Wednesday, with Brighton & Hove Albion versus Aston Villa another of those matches as two teams seeking UEFA Champions League qualification do battle.
The action concludes on Thursday when fourth-placed Chelsea host struggling rivals Tottenham.
Ahead of what looks set to be an entertaining group of Premier League fixtures, let’s check out the Opta supercomputer’s match predictions.
Premier League Predictions Matchweek 30: The Quick Hits
Liverpool predicted to move one step closer to the Premier League title by defeating in-form rivals Everton at Anfield.
The Opta supercomputer rates Nottingham Forest as more likely than not to drop points against an improving Manchester United side.
Arsenal, Bournemouth and Manchester City all backed for home wins this week, with Pep Guardiola’s champions being our predictive model’s most confident pick of MD 30.
Arsenal will hope to put some pressure on leaders Liverpool when they take on Fulham at the Emirates Stadium on Tuesday.
This is typically an extremely enjoyable fixture for the Gunners, as they have never lost in 31 home league games against Fulham (W24 D7) – the most home games one side has played against another without ever losing in English Football League history.
Despite exiting the FA Cup at the weekend in a 3-0 home loss to Crystal Palace, Fulham have generally been on a good run of form. They have won three of their last four Premier League away games and have already racked up four London derby victories this season, putting them just one off their best-ever mark as things stand.
But the Opta prediction model does not see an upset coming here, with Arsenal healthy favourites at 64.1% and Fulham’s chance of victory rated at just 15.2%.
Wolves will attempt to put further distance between themselves and the relegation zone when they host West Ham at Molineux.
Having beaten Southampton 2-1 prior to the international break, Vitor Pereira’s men are nine points clear of the bottom three, having picked up as many points from their last six league games (10) as they had in their previous 12.
West Ham, though, have won seven of their last nine league games against Wolves (two defeats), as many as they had in their previous 23 against them.
The Opta supercomputer struggles to separate these teams, with the hosts marginally given the edge. Our predictive model assigns Wolves a 39.4% chance of victory, with West Ham rated at 32.5%. The draw chance is 28.1%, making this fixture the most likely across all 10 in this midweek round to finish level.
Nottingham Forest continue their hunt for Champions League qualification when they host Manchester United, having reached the FA Cup semi-finals with Saturday’s penalty shoot-out win over Brighton.
Forest are unbeaten in their last eight home league games, winning six of them (two draws), which is as many victories as they claimed in their previous 24 at the City Ground.
But after their 3-0 win at Leicester City last time out, an improving Man Utd could win back-to-back Premier League games for the first time this season. The Red Devils are one of only three sides yet to win successive fixtures this term, along with Ipswich Town and Southampton.
Forest are slight favourites with our predictive model, winning 42.9% of pre-match simulations, but with United victorious in 31.1% of scenarios and the draw given a 26.0% chance, it means the hosts are seen as more likely than not to drop points.
To say Everton and David Moyes struggle against Liverpool at Anfield would be an understatement. Only once in the 21st century have the Toffees won at the home of their local rivals, with that 2-0 victory coming behind closed doors in the 2020-21 campaign.
Moyes, meanwhile, has won none of his 19 top-flight away games against Liverpool, the joint-most any manager has faced an opponent on the road without a single victory – a record that Moyes shares with himself (he has also never won against Chelsea at Stamford Bridge).
So, despite Everton’s impressive form since Moyes’ return, it is hardly surprising to see Liverpool rated as favourites by our model for this one. The Reds triumphed in 66.3% of the supercomputer’s match simulations, while Everton came out on top in just 14.9%.
These great rivals drew 2-2 in dramatic fashion back at Goodison Park in February, with James Tarkowski scoring an equaliser for the hosts deep into stoppage time of the last ever Merseyside derby at the famous ground. Everton last avoided defeat in both top-flight meetings with Liverpool in the same season back in 2020-21, the last time they won at Anfield.
Liverpool have won their three league home games against Everton since then, each by a 2-0 scoreline, while their next victory in this fixture will bring up their 100th derby triumph.
While Brighton fell short of reaching the FA Cup semi-finals, Aston Villa – victors over Preston North End on Sunday – do have a trip to Wembley to look forward to in April, as well as a Champions League quarter-final against Paris Saint-Germain.
But Unai Emery’s team are embroiled in the tightly-contested race for the European places in the Premier League.
The Seagulls should present a stern test for a Villa team who are looking to win back-to-back away league games for the first time since winning their first two such outings of this season.
Brighton have won each of their last three league games at the Amex Stadium and are looking to win four home matches in a row for the very first time in the top-flight.
The hosts are made the favourites by the supercomputer, with a 45.2% chance of victory. Villa’s win probability comes in at 30.5%, meaning there is a 24.3% likelihood of a draw.
Erling Haaland missed a penalty, but Manchester City got the job done as they came from behind to beat Bournemouth 2-1 on Sunday and seal their place in the FA Cup semi-finals for the seventh straight season.
A remarkable achievement, though Pep Guardiola’s team must now focus on securing Champions League qualification through their league placing as they take on lowly Leicester City.
With Chelsea not in action until a day later when they face Tottenham, City will see this home game as the ideal chance to move, at least for a day, back into the top four.
Man City have won nine of their last 10 league games against Leicester, winning the last six in a row by an aggregate score of 15-4, so that goes some way to explaining their 76.2% win probability from our model. Leicester’s chances come in at a meagre 9.9%.
City usually hit their stride at this stage of the season. They have won their last 13 Premier League games in April – only Liverpool in December (15 between 2017 and 2020) and Man Utd in March (15 between 2005 and 2009) have had longer winning runs in a specific month in the competition.
Across all 10 games on MD 30, a Man City victory is seen as the most likely result.
Bournemouth may be reeling from their FA Cup elimination, but are strong favourites to beat Ipswich, winning in 65.6% of pre-match simulations and losing in just 15.7%.
Both teams have scored in each of the last eight league games between Bournemouth and Ipswich stretching back to March 1989, while the Cherries have netted in each of their last 11 against the Tractor Boys.
Ipswich have lost eight of their last nine league games (one draw) including their last four, but a competition-high 59% of their points this season have come away from home (10/17).
Following the weekend’s celebrations of their EFL Cup success, Newcastle United turn their attention to finishing in the Champions League places, with Brentford up next.
The Magpies are just two points adrift of the top four, having won nine of their last 13 league games (L4), after only winning five of their opening 15 league matches of the season (D5 L5).
But they host a Brentford side who are in red-hot form on the road. Thomas Frank’s men have won their last five Premier League away games – the longest winning run on the road by any side in 2024-25.
In the competition’s history, only one side has won a sixth successive away game in which they began the day outside the top 10 in the table, with Arsenal doing so from December 2020 to May 2021.
The Opta supercomputer has backed Newcastle to build on their recent positive vibes, handing the Magpies a 52.2% win probability. Brentford, meanwhile, are given a 25.7% chance of sealing yet another road victory.
Fresh from sealing a spot in the FA Cup semi-finals with a 3-0 win over Fulham, Crystal Palace make the trip to the south coast to take on the Premier League’s bottom club, Southampton.
Palace have been in fine form of late, winning their last three Premier League games. They last won four in a row in the competition from February to June 2020 under Roy Hodgson.
Oliver Glasner’s side are also unbeaten in their last nine away league games (W6 D3), now just one short of their longest ever unbeaten run on the road in their league history, achieved four times previously (most recently April 1979 in the second tier).
Palace won 54% of Opta’s data-led simulations, while struggling Southampton’s win probability is down at 21.6%.
The action concludes at Stamford Bridge on Thursday as Chelsea welcome rivals Tottenham Hotspur to West London, with both teams in need of a win.
Chelsea’s 1-0 defeat to Arsenal before the international break sees them clinging on to the final Champions League spot, while Spurs languishing down in 14th, 15 points adrift of the Blues.
If many of the previous meetings between these two teams are anything to go by – Chelsea won December’s fixture at Spurs 4-3 – then the Premier League has certainly saved the best until last.
Enzo Maresca’s team are favoured by the supercomputer with a win probability of 56.4%, while Spurs are given just a 22.7% chance of victory.
Chelsea’s record on home soil has been impressive, winning their last four league games at Stamford Bridge, the last two of which while also keeping a clean sheet.
The Blues have lost just one of their last 12 league games against Spurs (W9 D2), winning the last three in a row by an aggregate score of 10-4, piling misery on Ange Postecoglou.
Indeed, Postecoglou has lost all three of his league meetings with Chelsea – the only side he has faced without yet picking up a point in the competition. He is looking to avoid becoming the first-ever Spurs manager to lose his first four league games against the Blues as the matchday comes to what could be an entertaining conclusion.
Enjoy this? Subscribe to our football newsletter to receive exclusive weekly content. You can also follow our social accounts over on X, Instagram, TikTok and Facebook.
