The NFL free agency frenzy is slowing down, and 2025 rosters are starting to take shape. Some teams look better, some look worse. Our team ratings reveal the biggest movers.
The NFL offseason brings a lot of hope for teams looking to improve the following year. Big signings, blockbuster trades and other major moves can change the trajectory of a franchise in one spring.
But after the biggest waves of the free agency period, team rosters become ever clearer in the receding tides. Some look better, some look worse.
Our team ratings identify seven aspects of each team: QB, pass block, run block, pass rush, run defense, skill players and pass coverage. Other than QB, each of these is built from individual player ratings, weighted by position, and aggregated to a unit rating.
According to the model, the Cleveland Browns, Seattle Seahawks and Los Angeles Chargers look the most improved at this point in the NFL calendar between pre- and post-free agency. Meanwhile, the Pittsburgh Steelers and New Orleans Saints have declined the most the rankings spots on paper.
No team has enjoyed a bigger bump than the Browns, who rose from the 32nd-ranked team before free agency to No. 22 in the immediate aftermath. The Seahawks have moved up six spots to No. 24, while the Chargers are up five spots to No. 9.
As for the fallers, the Steelers have dropped from 20th to 28th and the Saints are down six spots to No. 30. The Tennessee Titans have had the biggest rating drop, but they’ve moved down only one spot to No. 32 heading into draft season.
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Here, we will look closer at why some teams rose or fell (increase or decrease in team rating in parenthesis).
NFL Teams With Biggest Ratings Increase
Cleveland Browns (+6.81)
The Browns’ positive movement is a good sign the roster is relatively stable despite no clear plan at quarterback yet. The addition of quarterback Kenny Pickett is technically an upgrade over the originally presumed starter Dorian Thompson-Robinson, but the Browns’ offseason decisions indicate either a rookie or veteran will join the club before the start of the 2025 season.
As for the Browns’ other moves, the retention of Myles Garrett is the biggest one. Losing him would have dropped Cleveland’s rating significantly. The addition of defensive tackle Maliek Collins is crucial as well. The Browns lacked size up front alongside Shelby Harris and while Collins isn’t a world beater, he gives Cleveland around the same pressure production as Dalvin Tomlinson who left in free agency, although he’s a downgrade against the run.
The Browns also have added slight upgrades on the offensive line with tackle Cornelius Lucas and guard Teven Jenkins. Lucas offers around the same pass protection as Jedrick Wills Jr. did but with a 5% improvement in run disruption rate allowed.
Jenkins may not be a Week 1 starter, but his pressure rate allowed is on par with 2024 starting guards Joel Bitonio and Wyatt Teller, who are both at least three years older than Jenkins.
Los Angeles Chargers (+1.26)
The Chargers are a curious case. None of their moves are particularly groundbreaking, and they spent more on internal free agents like edge rusher Khalil Mack and center Bradley Bozeman than bringing in external free agents. Los Angeles also let a lot of players go, like edge rusher Joey Bosa, cornerback Asante Samuel Jr., receiver Joshua Palmer, and running backs J.K. Dobbins and Gus Edwards.
But similar to the Browns, the Chargers have shed more dead weight rather than upgrade at positions of need. However, the biggest move has been adding running back Najee Harris to the backfield.
By all accounts, Harris did not have a sensational 2024 season, but he’s been incredibly consistent and durable since the Steelers drafted him at No. 24 overall in 2021. He has at least 1,000 rushing yards and six touchdowns in every season he’s played and hasn’t missed a game in his career. His numbers are also similar to what Dobbins and Edwards did this past year, meaning he’s a replacement-level value add who should stay healthy.
The Harris signing certainly isn’t the same as, say, adding Saquon Barkley or Derrick Henry, but he’s a good running back who can provide production from the backfield.
Seattle Seahawks (+1.03)
This may come as a surprise given the Seahawks’ sweeping offensive changes don’t look like obvious improvements. Seattle has swapped Geno Smith for Sam Darnold at quarterback and overhauled its receiving corps with the additions of Cooper Kupp and Marquez Valdez-Scanting in place of Tyler Lockett and D.K. Metcalf.
We’ve already broken down why we like Smith over Darnold in Seattle, but the receiver changes are all about tightening the margins.
Kupp is a better version of Lockett, with a higher open rate and burn yards per target, while Valdez-Scanting is a cheaper version of Metcalf who excelled with new Seahawks offensive coordinator Klint Kubiak when they were with the New Orleans Saints last season. Valdez-Scanting isn’t as productive as Metcalf, but he has a slightly better burn rate, burn yards per target rate and open rate than Metcalf. The elevation of Jaxon Smith-Njigba to the No. 1 receiver role cannot be overstated, too, after JSN finished 18th in total burn yards in 2024.
Seattle has prioritized the defensive line in free agency, too, by re-signing Jarran Reed and adding Demarcus Lawrence. While Lawrence played just four games in 2024 after he sustained a season-ending foot injury, he had the fourth-best run disruption rate (30.9%) among defensive linemen who finished the season, and first among edge rushers.
Six of the Seahawks’ best seven defensive linemen had a run disruption rate of at least 18% in 2024, and all seven had a pressure rate of at least 14%.
NFL Teams With Biggest Ratings Decrease
Pittsburgh Steelers (-1.50)
The Steelers have made one of the splashiest moves of the offseason by trading for and signing receiver DK Metcalf. And yet, they’ve fallen the most of any team because there’s still uncertainty at quarterback. The team’s current starter is Mason Rudolph, but even bringing back Russell Wilson or signing Aaron Rodgers won’t change a lot.
The Steelers haven’t improved in any other areas either. They’ve replaced 29-year-old cornerback Donte Jackson with 34-year-old cornerback Darius Slay after neither played particularly well in 2024. The Najee Harris-for-Kenneth Gainwell swap in the backfield isn’t anything to write home about, either, and Pittsburgh also lost edge rusher Preston Smith and defensive tackle Larry Ogunjobi.
Metcalf is a good player, but he alone can’t elevate the Steelers, especially without a quarterback. He finished 74th in burn rate, 65th in burn yards per target and 87th in open rate among 91 receivers with at least 188 routes in 2024.
This has been a bust of an offseason for the Steelers unless they can crush the draft.
New Orleans Saints (-1.03)
It was always going to be hard for the Saints to have a good offseason given their cap situation. Their moves have been a bit confusing, too.
The Saints have brought back a lot of players, namely edge rusher Chase Young, tight end Juwan Johnson and defensive tackle Nathan Shephard. Young’s 21.7% pressure rate finished 15th among defensive linemen, but he’s been vulnerable against the run. The additions of defensive linemen Jonah Williams and Davon Godchaux aren’t special, either.
New Orleans’s best move has been signing safety Justin Reid. His 44.4% burn rate allowed ranked 16th out of 58 safeties with at least 200 pass coverage snaps, but his 70.4% open rate allowed ranked 30th. None of these defensive moves inspire much confidence, and the offense hasn’t added anyone of value.
What Can Change
The 2025 NFL Draft is nearing – from April 24-26 in Green Bay, Wisconsin – and that’s when a lot of these teams will look to shore up positions of need that weren’t addressed in free agency.
The Browns have the No. 2 overall pick and could make a better claim to improvement in 2025, and the Steelers will likely get a better stopgap option at quarterback and turn to the draft to address some of their other holes.
Rookie production is perhaps even harder to project than free agents, but we’ve seen how impactful players can be early in their careers.
It’s also worth noting four of the five teams listed here (the Chargers being the exception) ranked in the bottom half of the league in our team ratings. That leaves a lot of room for movement in the months before the 2025 season starts.
A lot can change between now and Week 1 in September, and the results of free agency rarely define a team’s future.
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