With the help of the AI-powered Opta supercomputer, we provide our UEFA Champions League match predictions for every game across 2024-25.
The Opta supercomputer will be with us every step of the way in the Champions League this season as the model works to provide you with data-backed predictions for all matches and season outcomes.
Real Madrid have won the most European Cup/Champions League titles (15), with nine of those coming in the UCL era since 1992. However, their hopes of a 16th crown are now hanging by a thread following a comprehensive 3-0 defeat to Arsenal in the first leg of their quarter-final tie.
Madrid are one of eight teams remaining in the 2024-25 competition as we head into the second legs of the quarter-finals this week.
Below, Opta Analyst provides detailed predictions for each of the remaining match-ups, powered by thousands of simulations from the Opta supercomputer. You can also follow this link for the latest overall UCL tournament projections.
Quarter-Final Predictions (Leg 2)
Aston Villa will need to produce something special at Villa Park if they are to keep their Champions League dream alive. Trailing 3-1 from the first leg, they must win by at least two goals to have any hope of progression.
Unai Emery’s side were dealt a crushing blow in stoppage time in Paris, when Nuno Mendes added a brilliant third goal for PSG to tilt the tie heavily in the Ligue 1 side’s favour. The supercomputer gives PSG a 43.6% chance of winning the second leg outright, but Villa won’t be easy to beat on home soil.
Since the start of the 2022-23 season, Villa boss Unai Emery has only lost one of his 13 home matches in major European competition as a manager, while winning 11 of them (D1). Villa have a 31.5% chance of winning the second leg in 90 minutes, though their chances of progressing to the semi-finals are far slimmer (8.5%), given they need to win by at least two goals to have any chance of doing so.
The other game on Tuesday evening sees the supercomputer’s current favourites, Barcelona, face off against Borussia Dortmund. This is a tie that is basically done and dusted, with Barça’s 4-0 lead ensuring the Opta supercomputer gives them a 99.4% chance of reaching the semi-finals. They have a 49.7% chance of winning on the road, while Dortmund win the game 26.5% of the time.
To highlight the scale of Dortmund’s task: this is the 160th time a team has lost by four or more goals in the first leg of a European Cup/Champions League knockout tie. Only once has a side recovered from such a deficit – Barcelona themselves against PSG in the 2016-17 round of 16, when they overturned a 4-0 first-leg loss with a 6-1 win in the return tie.
Now led by Hansi Flick, Barcelona are the supercomputer’s favourites to win the tournament outright, with a 28.2% chance of lifting the trophy.
Arsenal head to the Santiago Bernabéu with a 3-0 lead after a statement win in the first leg, thanks to two stunning free-kicks from Declan Rice and a late third from Mikel Merino.
Despite the deficit, many will still feel the tie isn’t over, such is Real Madrid’s aura in this competition. Their history of dramatic comebacks keeps the door slightly ajar, even if the data says otherwise.
The Opta supercomputer is most confident about a Real Madrid win this week (54.8%), yet Los Blancos progress in just 8.9% of simulations, underlining how difficult a comeback would be.
In their 53 such games, Madrid have only twice beaten English opposition by three or more goals in their long European history: a 5-1 win over Derby County in 1975-76 and a 4-0 win over Tottenham in 2010-11.
Arsenal walk away with an impressive win 21.6% of the time, and drew the game in 23.6% of simulations.
The most finely balanced tie of the round is between Inter and Bayern Munich, with the Italians holding a slender advantage after a 2-1 away win in the first leg.
The supercomputer finds little to separate the two sides. Bayern are marginally more likely to win the second leg (38.0%) than Inter (37.1%), while the draw – enough to see Inter progress –occurs in 24.9% of simulations.
Inter’s recent form in the competition has gone somewhat under the radar. They are unbeaten in their last 14 home Champions League games (W12 D2), the longest active run in the competition. Having ended Bayern’s 22-game unbeaten streak at the Allianz Arena in the first leg, Inter could make a mockery of their current 16.7% trophy chance if they continue this form.
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