Will Joey Aguilar join elite Tennessee QB club vs. New Mexico State? Our prediction

Tennessee football is well rested for the stretch run of the 2025 season after an off week.

The No. 20 Vols (6-3, 3-3 SEC) play New Mexico State (3-6) on Nov. 15 (4:15 p.m. ET, SEC Network) at Neyland Stadium.

Here is what you need to know about the matchup for UT’s homecoming game.

Joey Aguilar could join exclusive Tennessee QB club

Joey Aguilar could become UT’s fifth quarterback to pass for 3,000 yards in a season. Peyton Manning did it twice (1996-97). Tyler Bray (2012), Erik Ainge (2007) and Hendon Hooker (2022) also reached that milestone in a season.

Aguilar has passed for an SEC-leading 2,737 yards, so he needs 263 yards against New Mexico State to reach 3,000 yards this season.

Manning holds UT’s single-season record with 3,819 yards in the 1997 season in 12 games. Notably, the NCAA didn’t count bowl stats until 2002.

Aguilar would have the Florida (Nov. 22) and Vanderbilt (Nov. 29) games plus a bowl game to chase Manning’s record. But if UT gets a big lead against New Mexico State, Aguilar’s outing could be cut short.

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Big Orange will wear Smokey Grey uniforms

UT will wear Smokey Grey alternate uniforms, which are inspired by the “Volunteer Spirit” of American military service. They are the third rendition of the Smokey Grey series intended to honor and pay homage to individuals and people.

In the 2023 season, UT’s “Artful Dodger” Smokey Grey uniforms paid homage to trailblazer and former Vols quarterback Condredge Holloway. He was the first Black player to start at quarterback for an SEC program.

In the 2024 season, UT wore its “Volunteer State” Smokey Grey uniform, which was inspired by the Tri-Star emblem on the state flag.

Vols could retake national scoring lead

Call it a competition within the game, but UT could retake the national scoring lead with an offensive outburst in this one. It held that title for much of the season before falling back a few weeks ago.

UT averages 43.6 points per game, ranked third in the FBS. It trails Indiana (44.5 ppg) and North Texas (44.4 ppg).

Indiana plays Wisconsin, and North Texas plays UAB. If the Vols can score 50 or 60 points, they could climb those rankings. But New Mexico State has allowed only 25.2 points per game, so it won’t be a pushover.

UT last led the nation in scoring in 2022, when it finished the season with a 46.1 points-per-game average.

Defense could ride momentum to The Swamp

A minor bright spot in UT’s 33-27 loss to Oklahoma was an improved defensive performance.

UT allowed only two offensive touchdowns and 351 yards of total offense, the lowest for an SEC opponent against the Vols this season. Tackling was better. The pass rush was better. And pass coverage was better.

If UT comes through with another strong defensive performance, it could head into the Florida game with increased confidence.

Tennessee vs. New Mexico State prediction

Tennessee 59, New Mexico State 14: The Vols have outscored opponents 131-45 in the first quarter, and they should add to that margin. Despite a week off, they still sting from the loss to Oklahoma, so they’ll try to shake that off by lighting up the scoreboard. If Aguilar can help build a big lead and exit the game, fans will be eager to see the backup quarterbacks with 2026 in mind.

Adam Sparks is the Tennessee football beat reporter. Email adam.sparks@knoxnews.com. X, formerly known as Twitter@AdamSparks. Support strong local journalism by subscribing at knoxnews.com/subscribe.

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This article originally appeared on Knoxville News Sentinel: Tennessee vs New Mexico State prediction. Will Joey Aguilar join elite QB club?

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