One term you’ll keep hearing before the 2026 NFL Draft, scheduled April 23-25 in Pittsburgh, is positional value.
Positional value refers to how some positions in football are more valuable than others, such as quarterback. But should teams ignore it when scouting Ohio State Buckeyes safety Caleb Downs?
Ohio State’s Caleb Downs may be one of the best safety prospects ever
The Athletic’s Dane Brugler shared on X Thursday that many NFL scouts have told him Downs is the best safety prospect they’ve ever seen.
The Ringer’s Todd McShay echoed this sentiment before the start of the 2025 season, comparing him to Pro Football Hall of Famer Ed Reed. The former Baltimore Ravens star ranks seventh in NFL history in career interceptions (64).
“Ed was the best of all time, knowing what was happening in advance,” McShay wrote in June 2025. “He picked up on every minor tendency and played with a sixth sense, of sorts. He tripped up the best of the best, including Tom Brady and Peyton Manning. Caleb is the closest thing I’ve seen to Ed in that regard. There’s some next-level stuff on his tape.”
Downs didn’t disappoint in 2025, helping the Buckeyes make their second straight College Football Playoff appearance. Per Sports Info Solutions, he allowed just nine receptions and no touchdown catches on 20 targets in 2025. The 6-foot, 205-pound defensive back also logged two interceptions and 45 solo tackles.
That guarantees Downs will be a top-five pick, right? Not quite. No safety has been taken that high since the Kansas City Chiefs grabbed Eric Berry with pick No. 5 in 2010. In the 2025 draft, just one safety was selected in the first round: Baltimore’s Malaki Starks (pick No. 27).
Safeties have lost positional value because of defensive schemes that make the position less important, rules outlawing big hits and fewer deep passes. Per Pro Football Reference, the league average for air yards per attempt in 2025 was 7.7. When the site started tracking this data in 2018, that number was 8.1. (Note: air yards exclude yards after the catch.)
The 2025 season, though, proved that safeties are still plenty valuable. Atlanta Falcons rookie safety Xavier Watts (pick No. 96) tied for second in the NFL in interceptions (five). Seattle Seahawks safety Nick Emmanwori (pick No. 35), meanwhile, ranked second on the team in solo tackles (56) and third in passes defended (11), helping the squad win its second Super Bowl. Watts and Emmanwori were both named Defensive Rookie of the Year finalists.
Perhaps some of this positional value stuff is mumbo jumbo. That should make teams at the top of the draft feel better about spending a high pick on Downs. He may be an even finer prospect than Watts or Emmanwori, who were immediate impact players for their respective teams. Clubs can see how he compares to the star defensive backs at the NFL Scouting Combine, scheduled Feb. 23-March 2 in Indianapolis.
