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Championships: Alabama out of the CFP and Miami in?
The College Football Playoff field is almost set after a fun weekend of conference championship games: Undefeated Big Ten winner Indiana (what a combination of words) will be the No. 1 seed. SEC winner Georgia, Big 12 winner Texas Tech and Big Ten runner-up Ohio State should take the remaining byes in some order. Oregon, Ole Miss, Texas A&M and Oklahoma will join in something close to that order.
Notre Dame, the current No. 9, seems very likely to maintain an at-large spot. Tulane will make it out of the American Conference as the higher-seeded of two Group of 5 teams in the field. No. 12 will almost certainly be James Madison, getting in with a 12-1 record out of the Sun Belt thanks to five-loss Duke playing spoiler in the ACC. The Athletic’s up-to-the-moment field projection is right here, and we have a pretty good idea of 11 out of 12 spots. It’s possible Notre Dame gets bumped, but if it happens, we’ll deal with that shocker when we come to it. Nothing is binding, but the committee has been enamored with the Irish for a while.
Now, for the biggest thing that isn’t set: Alabama or Miami for the 12-team field’s last at-large spot? It will be one of the hardest decisions the selection committee has ever faced. But there is a clear answer, in both my (Alex’s) opinion and that of Until Saturday author Jason Kirk.
No. 12 Miami should make the Playoff over No. 9 Alabama, which got blown out by Georgia in Saturday’s SEC Championship, 28-7. Why? I’ll explain:
Both teams have 10 wins, but Alabama has an infinitely worse loss than either of Miami’s. The Hurricanes lost two close games to eight-win SMU and Louisville. Bama has losses to Playoff teams Georgia and Oklahoma, but also got run out of the building in Week 1 against a Florida State team that finished 5-7. The committee says common opponent results matter among closely ranked teams. Do you know who beat the Noles in Tallahassee rather than losing to them by two touchdowns? Miami.
Yes, you can penalize teams for lopsided conference championship losses. Bama coach Kalen DeBoer doesn’t think Saturday’s loss should apply to Bama’s resume “at all.” But BYU, which started the day ranked No. 11, will likely fall after getting drummed for a second time by No. 4 Texas Tech. A few blowout title-game losers fell on Selection Sunday earlier in the Playoff era, too, albeit from outside the top four. Can’t an SEC team also be penalized for a sufficiently ugly title game?
Bama’s best win isn’t much better than Miami’s best win. Not in totality, anyway. The Tide’s three-point win over Georgia back in Week 5 was tremendous, but it was only a bit better than Miami’s win over No. 10 Notre Dame by the same margin in Week 1. Unlike Bama, Miami didn’t then lose badly to the victim of its own best W.
Is this a prediction that the committee will dunk Alabama? More like a 51-percenter. I’m not that brave, two years removed from the committee wrongly inserting Alabama ahead of an unbeaten Florida State whose quarterback was injured. But the committee’s logic then was that Bama looked better heading into the Playoff than the Noles did. Can you feel that good about Bama’s form this year, after a mediocre and injured run game posted negative-3 yards yesterday?
One other looming question: Does the ACC’s champ not getting into the field improve Miami’s chances? Committee members would never admit it, but I wonder just a bit if they’d be drawn to the Hurricanes as a nod to conference stability. Politics!
News to Know
Messi, Inter Miami win MLS Cup
Inter Miami sat near the bottom of MLS when Lionel Messi arrived in 2023. Two years later, the club has its first MLS Cup after a 3-1 win over the Vancouver Whitecaps yesterday. Messi, the match’s unsurprising MVP, didn’t find the back of the net but did tally two assists. These MLS playoffs have been another showcase of Messi’s greatness and a fairytale ending to the careers of Jordi Alba and Sergio Busquets. And in the final moments yesterday, it was Alba to Messi to set up the dagger. Fitting:
An FCS playoffs stunner
North Dakota State — a team that legitimately received votes in the AP Top 25 earlier this week — was bounced in the second round of the FCS playoffs by unranked Illinois State yesterday. The Bison hadn’t lost a game in over a year and had won 10 FCS titles from 2011 to 2024. The wackiest part: Illinois State quarterback Tommy Rittenhouse threw five (!) interceptions. One of the biggest upsets of the year.
More news:
Watch Guide
The Audible’s College Football Playoff Reaction Show
12 p.m. ET on YouTube
Bruce Feldman, Stewart Mandel and Ralph Russo will take you through the Playoff bracket and seedings in real time. (The actual release is on ESPN.)
NFL: Steelers at Ravens
1 p.m. ET on CBS
By law, one of these 6-6 teams will have to win the AFC North. This newsletter offers no endorsement of this game beyond pointing out those stakes.
NFL: Texans at Chiefs
8:20 p.m. ET on NBC
Houston is on a fun ride at the moment, with four wins in a row by a combined 18 points to get to 7-5. For the 6-6 Chiefs, this game is close to must-win territory: Their playoff chances will be around 50 percent if they win, 10 percent if they lose.
Pulse Picks
It feels like a good time to read Brian Hamilton’s profile of Curt Cignetti in case you missed it earlier this week.
Just reading about this NBA power couple’s schedule is tiring. Kudos to them.
I have both purchased and received Staub Dutch ovens as gifts over the last two years and am pretty obsessed. Also, I am going against the Wirecutter grain here, so don’t tell our parents. — Chris Branch
John Seabrook reports on the race to create premium experiences at venues, and how that is changing the fan experience. — Richard Deitsch
“The Athletic Show” returns with a special episode dedicated entirely to the biggest sporting event on the planet. American soccer legend Landon Donovan headlines the lineup of guests, joining the crew to discuss what we can expect from the USMNT at the World Cup. Stream it on Fire TV, The Athletic app or wherever you get your podcasts.
Little kids love a cheap coloring “suit” case like this. It gives them some agency to keep organized, travels well, and you can easily replace portions. That crayon section? It’s just a typical Crayola box. — Chris Sprow
Brooklyn’s first women’s sports bar officially opened yesterday, and Kaylen Jackson got its inspiring backstory.
NYT Cooking shared its 25 most popular recipes of 2025. Feeling validated that one of my faves, an adaptable one-pot vegetarian meal, clocks in at No. 2. — Torrey Hart
I used to be a certified air fryer hater. Who needs another bulky, ugly appliance, especially when the perfectly adequate oven is right there? Despite that perspective, I recently received the Ninja Air Fryer Pro, the Wirecutter top pick, as an early Christmas gift. After just one meal (crispy fish tacos) using it, I have to give up my Haters Club card — which is a shame; I love being a hater. — Alex Iniguez
Most-clicked in the newsletter yesterday: Our group-by-group guide to the World Cup.
Most-read on the website yesterday: Dianna Russini on Tom Brady’s Raiders mess, and more NFL buzz.
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(Top photo: Kevin C. Cox / Getty Images)
