What’s going on in the Big 12 and beyond? I expand and explain every Sunday in Postscripts at Heartland College Sports, your home for independent Big 12 coverage.
This week, I write about the Rule of 10 when it comes to the College Football Playoff, and whether my theory will hold up.
The Rule of 10 and the Big 12
I’ve had this theory for a while now about the College Football Playoff and its expansion to 12 teams — if you’re a power conference team and you win 10 or more games by the end of the conference championship weekend and you’re in.
That theory was backed up by what happened last year. Seventeen power conference teams finished the year with 10 or more wins. But 13 had 10 or more before the bowl games — SMU, Clemson, Miami, Oregon, Penn State, Indiana, Ohio State, Arizona State, Iowa State. BYU, Texas, Georgia and Tennessee.
Here’s why I think that’s important. In a 12-team playoff where one bid goes to the best conference champion in the Group of 5 that means there are 11 spots. Each of the power four conference championship gets a bid (I know that’s not how the rule reads but we know that’s what is going to happen). The rest go to at-large.
So last year there were 13 teams for 11 spots and BYU and Miami were left out. What was also notable was that three-loss Alabama was left out, which was controversial to some because SMU got in after losing to Clemson in the ACC title game. But SMU had 10 or more wins. The committee took the power conference team with more wins. I’m OK with that.
In the early returns — after all we’ve only had one year of an expanded playoff — that leads me to believe that a power conference team that reaches 10 wins before the committee unveils the field is important. Regardless of the conference, these teams are playing a power conference schedule and there are enough pitfalls to send them to three or more losses. If you can win 10 or more, that tells me something.
That makes the next two weeks fascinating to me. As BYU beat Cincinnati on Saturday night, I said to myself, “Based on last year that should get them in, right?” Well …
The Final Weekend And What’s At Stake
Entering the final weekend of the regular season there are eight power conference teams with 10 or more wins, none of which are in the ACC. The pool is Texas Tech, BYU in the Big 12; Indiana, Ohio State and Oregon in the Big Ten; and Texas A&M, Georgia and Ole Miss in the SEC. Right now, I would say they’re in but we have two more weekends left to go.
There is a wealth of teams with nine, or even eight wins, that could get to 10. The ACC is a complete mess. Virginia (9-2), Pitt (8-3), SMU (8-3), Georgia Tech (9-2) and Miami (9-2) could all still get to the title game. Chances are the winner of the ACC will have 10 or more wins. It’s possible the loser of that game won’t.
The heat is on Michigan this week against Ohio State. The Wolverines are 9-2 and have no chance to play in the Big Ten title game. They need to beat the Buckeyes to get to 10 wins. If they don’t, I don’t see how that committee takes them.
The SEC has three remaining nine-win teams with one more game this weekend — Alabama, Oklahoma and Vanderbilt. Win their finales and they’re in the pool. There are a lot of scenarios that will determine who get to the SEC title game. But there’s a chance that all three could finish the season 10-2.
Then there is Utah, which can still finish 10-2 and not make the Big 12 title game. Arizona State is 8-3 can still play their way into the title game, but both need help.
Oh, and I almost forgot Notre Dame. The Irish are 9-2 and with a win this weekend they can get to 10 wins. They’re a part of this equation, too. After all, Notre Dame played in the title game a year ago. It just doesn’t play in a conference and can only get in as an at-large.
There is a chance that the power four could have more 10-win teams by the end of the conference title games than a year ago. To me, that means there is no reason to mess with any nine-win teams, unless they get an auto bid. It also makes the resume comparison extremely important and title game appearances, win or lose, relevant.
If the Big 12 wants multiple teams in the CFP, two things are imperative. First, Texas Tech and BYU must win this coming weekend and get to 11-1, clinching Big 12 title game berths for both. Second, win or lose, the Big 12 title game needs to be close, something akin to the 2022 title game between Kansas State and TCU. A blowout by one or the other might do damage to the loser’s chances with this many 10-win teams in the mix.
My personal opinion is that Texas Tech and BYU have done enough to warrant playoff berths. But, this is the same committee that had Notre Dame ahead of Miami last Tuesday even though the Hurricanes beat the Irish earlier this season. So, who know what they’ll do?
I think my Rule of 10 is not only going to apply but overflow with deserving candidates. Two are in the Big 12. They must ensure they don’t do any damage to their chances next weekend.
The Big 12 Football Race
One more week. Things are simple now, especially since no one clinched a Big 12 championship game berth outright.
Texas Tech (7-1) and BYU (7-1) go to Arlington if they win their finales. Easy.
Arizona State (6-2) and Utah (6-2) still have a chance, though ASU’s chances are much better than Utah’s since the Utes lost to both Tech and BYU. But they need a four-way tie to unleash every possible tiebreaker to help them.
Houston (5-3) and Cincinnati (5-3) played their way out of the race with losses on Saturday. Enjoy your bowl game.
