Big 12 Women’s Basketball Tournament Semifinals Predictions (2026)

The Big 12 women’s basketball tournament is down to the semifinals. Four teams, three more games, one champion, who gets the automatic bid in the NCAA Tournament.

Upsets have been part of the deal for the last two days in Kansas City. Kansas State became the first No. 12 seed to advance to the semifinals in Big 12 Tournament history. Colorado, a No. 6 seed, upended No. 3 Baylor. Two higher seeds lost in the quarterfinals a season after the final three rounds went chalk.

Here is a preview of the semifinal games, along with the complete schedule of the tournament. All games on Saturday can be found on ESPN+.

Game 13: No. 12 Kansas State vs. No. 1 TCU, 3 p.m., ESPN+

The Matchup: Kansas State (18-16) is the first team in Big 12 history to reach the semifinal round of the women’s tournament as a No. 12 seed. It’s been a rollicking good time. It’s also been a tremendous coming out party for freshman Jordan Speiser, who’s growth this season has been incredible to watch. When the Wildcats faced TCU in December in Fort Worth, she scored four points. In Kansas City she’s had a pair of 20-point games. Texas Tech held her to six points. TCU is absolutely breaking down that tape.

No lead is safe with this team. Kansas State went on a 21-0 run to end the game to beat Texas Tech. The Wildcats rallied from double digits to beat Oklahoma State. Kansas State has the perimeter scoring to hang with TCU. The real issue is inside. The Wildcats were at a size disadvantage in December, and it hasn’t changed. Kansas State must bridge that gap as much as possible.

TCU (28-4) started Friday’s quarterfinal game on a 24-8 run and cruised past BYU, ending the Cougars’ run in the tournament. It took Olivia Miles a while to get going and she only had 10 points. She did have 10 rebounds and six assists. Fortunately, the Horned Frogs didn’t need her at full capacity. Marta Suarez had a fine game, scoring 17 points and Taylor Bigby added 13 points.

The Horned Frogs are trying to win their second Big 12 Tournament title in a row, and third-year coach Mark Campbell seems to know how to pull the right strings to get what he needs out of this team. TCU needs another hot start on Saturday. The less it allows Kansas State to hang around the better.

Prediction: TCU 67, Kansas State 60

Game 14: No. 2 West Virginia vs. No. 6 Colorado, 5:30 p.m., ESPN+

The Matchup: West Virginia (25-6) always brings the defense, but Arizona State found a way to handle it for most of Friday’s quarterfinal, as the Sun Devils only turned it over 19 times. But West Virginia held Arizona State to 38% shooting. Meanwhile, McKinna Brackens and Gabby Elliott combined for 17 points. The Mountaineers know how to take away a team’s best assets on gameday.

Sydney Shaw had a great game against Arizona State, and when she’s firing for the arc, the Mountaineers are hard to slow down. She had 19 points, including five 3-pointers. Gia Cooke scored 16 and Jordan Harrison added 10 points. West Virginia has some of the best two-way players in the conference. Four of its starters combined for nine steals on Friday.

Colorado (22-10) has been a runaway train for more than a month, and one could make the case the Buffs are the conference’s hottest team. Since losing to West Virginia, 61-55, CU has won seven of its last nine games. Those two losses prevented the Buffaloes from claiming a double bye. Maybe that was for the best. The Buffs probably needed two wins to get into the NCAA Tournament. Colorado’s got them.

Jade Masogayo has had trouble staying in the last two games. She fouled out for the second straight tournament game. But, Desiree Wooten and Zyanna Walker combined for 40 points. Wooten is a big part of what CU does offensively and is one of the most productive bench players in the conference.

Prediction: Colorado 63, West Virginia 61