The Big 12 women’s basketball season is down to one more round of games, which start on Saturday. On Sunday, the TCU-Baylor game in Fort Worth gets the ESPN Gameday treatment. It’s a big day for the league. The first women’s Gameday in the Big 12 and in Fort Worth.
One week after this piece came out there has been plenty of change. There are only a couple of teams that can say they’re locked into a seed. There remains competition for both a single bye and a double bye.
In this piece we look at where each Big 12 team would be seeded if the tournament started today. In addition, we project a bit to see how seeds could change this weekend.
Big 12 Women’s Basketball Seeds 1-4 (Double Byes)
1. TCU (26-4, 14-3)
2. West Virginia (23-6, 13-4)
3. Baylor (24-6, 13-4)
4. Colorado (20-9, 11-6)
Locked into a Double Bye: TCU, Baylor, West Virginia
If TCU wins the finale on Sunday against Baylor, the Horned Frogs will be the No. 1 seed in the Big 12 Tournament. If they lose, well it depends on what West Virginia does.
If Baylor wins and WVU wins its finale over Cincinnati, then it’s a three-way tie at the top. The first tiebreaker is their records against one another based on winning percentage. TCU (3-1) would claim the No. 1 seed. So, win or lose the Horned Frogs appear poised to be the No. 1 seed. After that it falls to head-to-head between WVU and BU and since the Mountaineers won their only meeting, they would be No. 2.
What if Baylor wins and WVU loses? Then it’s a two-way tie at the top and a split season series. The next tiebreaker is “Each team’s winning percentage versus the team occupying the highest position in the final regular season standings, and then continuing down through the standings until one team gains an advantage.” I must assume that means the league would use WVU to break that tie as the third-place team. In that case, TCU would get the No. 1 seed and Baylor would get the No. 2 seed.
There doesn’t appear to be a path for the Bears to claim the No. 1 seed, even with a win. Meanwhile, West Virginia can be no worse than the No. 3 seed.
With Texas Tech, Colorado and Oklahoma State tied for fourth, tiebreakers were necessary. The first is their records against one another based on winning percentage. Colorado and Oklahoma State were each 2-1, while Texas Tech was 0-2. So, the Lady Raiders fall into a single bye. CU and OSU split, so the next tiebreaker is record against the top team in the league until the tie is broken. Colorado’s win over TCU puts the Buffs in the No. 4 seed with one game left.
Seeds 5-8 (Single Byes)
5. Oklahoma State (22-8, 11-6)
6. Texas Tech (24-6, 11-6)
7. Iowa State (21-8, 9-8)
8. Arizona State (22-8, 9-8)
Given the tiebreakers above, Oklahoma State is No. 5 and Texas Tech is No. 6.
Utah’s win over Colorado earlier this week helped create a three-way tie with Iowa State and Arizona State, who both lost on Wednesday. The tiebreaker is their records against one another based on winning percentage. ISU (2-0) and Arizona State (2-1) have it over Utah (0-3). The Utes aren’t done yet. They could win their final game this weekend and if either Iowa State or Arizona State lose, Utah would move into a single bye.
Remaining Seeds
9. Utah (18-11, 9-8)
10. Kansas (18-11, 8-9)
11. Kansas State (15-15, 8-9)
12. BYU (19-10, 8-9)
BYU, Kansas and Kansas State have their tie broken by records against one another based on winning percentage. Kansas (3-0), Kansas State (1-2) and BYU (0-2) are seeded in that order. All three are one game behind the trio of teams at 9-8 in league play, so any win this weekend, combined with a loss, creates the potential for chaos. The Iowa State-Kansas State game is the key game on this list.
13. Cincinnati (11-18, 6-11)
14. Arizona (12-16, 3-14)
15. UCF (10-18, 2-15)
16. Houston (7-21, 1-16)
Cincinnati is locked in at No. 13. There could be some shuffling below the Bearcats.
If Arizona wins its game this weekend, the Wildcats will be No. 14.
UCF plays Houston. If UCF wins and Arizona loses, UCF will be the No. 14 seed and Arizona will be No. 15, based on UCF’s head-to-head win over Arizona. If Houston wins, the Cougars will be No. 15, and UCF will be No. 16 based on the head-to-head result.
As of now, this should be how the Big 12 Tournament schedule would play out, based on the seeds above:
First Round (Wednesday, March 4)
Game 1: No. 12 BYU vs. No. 13 Cincinnati
Game 2: No. 9 Utah vs. No. 16 Houston
Game 3: No. 10 Kansas vs. No. 15 UCF
Game 4: No. 11 Kansas State vs. No. 14 Arizona
Second Round (Thursday, March 5)
Game 5: Game 1 winner vs. No. 5 Oklahoma State
Game 6: Game 2 winner vs. No. 8 Arizona State
Game 7: Game 3 winner vs. No. 7 Iowa State
Game 8: Game 4 winner vs. No. 6 Texas Tech
Quarterfinals (Friday, March 6)
Game 9: Game 5 winner vs. No. 4 Colorado
Game 10: Game 6 winner vs. No. 1 TCU
Game 11: Game 7 winner vs. No. 2 West Virginia
Game 12: Game 8 winner vs. No. 3 Baylor
Semifinals (Saturday, March 7)
Game 13: Game 9 winner vs. Game 10 winner
Game 14: Game 11 winner vs. Game 12 winner
Championship (Sunday, March 8)
Game 15: Game 13 winner vs. Game 14 winner
Note: if BYU advances to Game 15 title game will be played on Monday, March 9.
