The Big 12 Conference is coming around the turn on the backstretch and heading toward that final turn, at least in horse racing terms.
As hard as it is to believe, there are more weeks behind the Big 12 than ahead of it in this season. Nearly every team has five league games left, and there is still so much to play for. Two teams remain undefeated, and certainly not the two anyone expected to start the year. But nearly a half-dozen teams still have a legit shot to get to Arlington. It has the makings of another bonkers finish.
Here are five notes going into Week 9, and what they mean.
Note 1: The Contenders
Arizona State, BYU, Cincinnati, Houston, and Texas Tech give the Big 12 five teams with one or fewer Conference losses after Week Eight.
What it Means: For the past couple of weeks, I’ve written about the math of getting to the Big 12 Championship Game. Last year’s two title game participants — Arizona State and Iowa State — each had two league losses and won tiebreakers with other teams that had two losses, BYU and Colorado.
BYU and Cincinnati are the only two undefeated teams left in Big 12 action. It’s likely each will lose a game. So, when assessing the final five weeks of the season, these are your contenders for the two berths in Arlington. But the more they lose, the worse their chances get (obviously).
Note 2: BYU’s Rise
BYU is one of six remaining undefeated teams in FBS and has won 11 of its 13 Big 12 games since the start of the 2024 season.
What it Means: The Cougars have, at least for the moment, figured out how to be successful at the power conference level. To be clear, BYU has always been an above-average program with a national profile. It just took the Cougars this long to get to a conference that wanted them (and, yes, the Big 12 did pass on them about a decade ago). Let’s not bring that up.
It’s also validation for Kalani Sitake’s hiring as head coach after Bronco Mendenhall left. Since 2016, he is 79-43. He led the Cougars to back-to-back seasons of at least 10 wins in 2020 and 2021. He is poised to do it again after BYU went 11-2 in 2024 and is already 7-0. Doing with a freshman quarterback is just bonkers, though.
Note 3: Gotta Have Sam
Including the 2024 Big 12 Championship, the Sun Devils have won 11 consecutive games versus Big 12 opponents when quarterback Sam Leavitt starts. This marks the longest active streak among all Power Four quarterbacks.
What it Means: I mean, do I have to draw you a map? When he starts, Arizona State wins. Simple. Now, this week against Houston, he won’t have wide receiver Jordyn Tyson to lean on. But the Sun Devils have won games in that streak without him. Arizona State has not done the same without Leavitt. He makes a huge difference in the Sun Devils’ chances of making the Big 12 Championship Game and College Football Playoff.
Note 4: Bounce Backs in 2025
Cincinnati and Houston have both eclipsed their win totals from last season through Week Eight.
What it Means: It means that if you voted for either team as this year’s Arizona State, then you must feel pretty good right now. Now, I thought Houston would be better this year, and much of that had to do with Willie Fritz. The long-time head coach improves his team’s win total by three from Year 1 to Year 2 historically. The Cougars are already bowl-eligible, and their only loss is to Texas Tech. This weekend’s game with Arizona State is a separator when it comes to their title hopes.
As for Cincinnati, well, I didn’t see this coming, honestly. I felt the Bearcats would be looking for a new head coach at the end of the season. Shows you what some of us know about football. After two years of watching coach Scott Satterfield struggle to put the pieces together on the field, his Bearcats seem to have figured it out. It’s not over yet, but the longer the Bearcats and the BYU Cougars remain undefeated, the bigger their game in late November becomes.
Note 5: Competitive Balance
This season, 12 of 16 (75.0%) Big 12 teams have at least four wins. That is the highest rate among all FBS conferences (excluding independents).
What it Means: For what it’s worth, it’s a balanced, competitive conference. That’s what most of us expected this season. This just confirms it. Four teams are already bowl eligible. Four more are one win away. Four more are two wins away. It could be a Big 12-heavy bowl season this winter.
