The 2025 college football regular season is humming right along as Week 9 is here. My College Football Projection Model looks to make it back-to-back winning weeks after making a (small) profit during Week 8. If you’ve followed me for some time, you know I’ll take any sort of winning week and won’t complain about it.
Though I will complain that the Tennessee-Alabama over didn’t hit because the running back got tackled at what seemed like the six-inch line to go in for the covering touchdown. We bet that game at 58.5 -112, and it closed at 61.5! But hey, a winning week is a winning week. Funny enough, the plays that didn’t get agreement in the market did pretty well last week.
Last week’s record: 3-2, +0.73 unitsSeason record: 18-24-1, -8.44 units, -17.9% ROI
Surprisingly large card for this late in the week. Whether that’s a good or a bad thing remains to be seen. A lot of spreads that I think have some value, so let’s hope for some winners. As always, shop around for the best price and good luck!
Week 9 best bets
California +6.5 (-114) at Virginia Tech
Worst price to bet: Cal +6 (-110)
Cal is a little banged up right now, but I cannot get close to this price. My model thinks both of these offenses are pretty similar, but Cal has a significantly better defense. Sure, traveling across the country won’t be easy, but Virginia Tech winning by margin here seems like a tall task.
Buffalo -9.5 (-120) vs. Akron
Worst price to bet: Buffalo -10 (-110)
You’ll have to shop around for this price, but my model makes this number closer to two touchdowns. Akron is absolutely dreadful at running the ball this season, and Buffalo’s pass defense is pretty good for MAC standards. If Akron’s poor offense has to become more one-dimensional, I don’t like their ability to go around on the road and keep this one close.
Fresno State +3 (-110) vs. San Diego State
Worst price to bet: Fresno State +3 (-115)
The San Diego State defense has been nails this year, and you’ll likely find the Aztecs performing pretty well in efficiency metrics like EPA per play and success rate on both sides of the ball. But Fresno State hasn’t been too shabby either, especially when it comes to throwing the ball on offense and stopping the run. I think these teams are a lot closer than we want to believe, and Fresno State gets to play at home.
Houston +7.5 (-120) at Arizona State
Worst price to bet: Houston +7.5 (-120)
I don’t factor in a favorable spot into my model or anything like that, but you will not find me complaining about the spot Houston is in against the Sun Devils. Arizona State just took down Texas Tech last week in a thriller and could come out a little slow this week. Willie Fritz has Houston playing great, and the defense has been awesome so far this year by virtue of being a top-25 team in EPA per play on early downs. If Houston can force Arizona State into some third-and-longs, I like their chances to keep this close.
Pittsburgh -6.5 (-110) vs. NC State
Worst price to bet: Pittsburgh -6.5 (-115)
The matchup I really like in this game is NC State’s offense trying to get into third-and-manageable against a Pitt defense that loves to get you into third-and-long. Pitt’s defense this year forces opponents in an average yards to go of 8.9 on third downs, according to gameonpaper.com. That’s the fourth-best mark in the country. As for NC State’s offense, they face an average of 7.8 yards to go on third down. If Pitt can force NC State into third and longs all game, they can run away with this one.
SMU -2.5 (-124) at Wake Forest
Worst price to bet: SMU -2.5 (-125) or SMU -3 (-110)
Again, you’ll have to shop around for this price, and it’s a bit juicy, but we track the juice, and I’m not scared of it. On the road here, I’m happy to pay the price to get under a field goal. Wake Forest has played a very easy schedule this year, and I think it’s inflating their defense a bit. On top of that, their offense hasn’t been all that impressive. I have SMU significantly better on offense and comparable on defense.
Washington -4 (-108) vs. Illinois
Worst price to bet: Washington -5.5 (-110)
I think Washington is a little undervalued after its loss to Michigan last week, but there were a couple of factors that went against the Huskies that I’m not sure are repeatable. First, it was a noon game in the Eastern Time Zone, which is a 9 a.m. body-clock game. Second, Michigan broke tendency with its defense for the first time all year, which caught the Washington offense off-guard, it seems. In a much more favorable matchup against an overrated Illinois team at home, I think Washington can win big.
