With the title race and relegation picture becoming clearer earlier than usual, has 2024-25 lacked the drama of past Premier League seasons?
Pose this question to any Liverpool, Nottingham Forest or Bournemouth fan and you’d – perfectly reasonably – be given short shrift.
There was the shock of Manchester City’s monopoly on the Premier League title ending before Christmas, and Liverpool are storming towards a surprise second Premier League crown, and 20th English top-flight title overall.
Forest and Bournemouth, who flirted with relegation last season, have produced unlikely challenges for Champions League qualification.
Anyone associated with those three clubs would quite understandably argue that this season has been one of the best and most exciting in recent memory. In Bournemouth’s case, this could well prove to be the best season in their entire history.
There is something to be said for the collective joy of these teams upsetting the odds. Yes, we’re aware that Liverpool winning the title wouldn’t quite be the perfect plucky underdog story, while Forest aren’t complete strangers to the upper end of the top flight, but few predicted them to be where they are – including us.
In our pre-season predictions, we had Liverpool finishing third, Bournemouth 15th and Forest 17th. It really is remarkable how well those three teams have done.
But more generally, there are few positive storylines for clubs across the Premier League. Comparing the pre-season predictions of the Opta supercomputer with the current league table, most of the top flight’s 20 teams could end the season disappointed.
Forest (+14 league places) and Bournemouth (+9) are the biggest overachievers compared to their pre-season predictions, while the difference in Liverpool’s actual position and their predicted position (+2) is the most significant because they could win the title.
Otherwise, though, Brentford (+3) in 11th, Brighton (+2) in ninth, and Fulham (+2) in 10th are the only other teams with a positive difference. All of them will be fine with finishing in mid-table, but each would also have hoped that positive signs at different stages in the season would have led to a challenge for the European places that now looks unlikely. They won’t be delighted with positions, nine, 10 and 11.
Ipswich don’t really count as a positive story because, although they are higher in the table (18th) than they were predicted to be (19th), they are only there on goal difference and, ultimately, it’s not as though there’s any difference between those positions. Either would see them make an immediate return to the Championship.
Every other team is either level with their predicted finish or beneath it. Arsenal are second, as predicted, but nobody associated with the club would argue they are happy with how the table looks. They are 11 points off Liverpool, albeit with a game in hand, and just clinging on in the title race, when they would have hoped to be within touching distance at this stage of the season at the very least.
Newcastle will certainly be content with fifth if it gets them back into the Champions League, but they also might have hoped for slightly better, while Aston Villa won’t be satisfied if they remain eighth for the rest of the season. Nor would Wolves have been happy with 16th before the start of the campaign.
Everton (-1), Leicester (-1), Chelsea (-3), Man City (-3), Crystal Palace (-4), Tottenham (-5), West Ham (-6), and Manchester United (-9) have all had disappointing seasons. In the case of Spurs and United, 2024-25 has been almost unimaginably bad.
Obviously, if Arsenal or Aston Villa win the Champions League, or Spurs or United lift the Europa League, or Wolves or Brighton go all the way in the FA Cup, those trophies would instantly make any of their seasons a huge success. That said, those are all pretty big ‘ifs’ based on their campaigns so far.
From the neutral’s perspective, there is also an argument to be made that this season has been slightly disappointing. It is rare, at this stage of the season, for there to be so little to play for at both ends of the table.
The current points gap from first to second of 11 points is way above the average on 25 February in each Premier League season since the turn of the century (6.7 points). There is the caveat that Liverpool have played one game more than second-placed Arsenal, who could cut the gap to eight points if they win their game in hand, but it is still more common on this date for the gap to be three points or fewer (10 times in the last 25 seasons) than it is eight or more (nine times).
On top of that, there is a big gap between the relegation places and safety. The difference of five points between 17th and 18th is the second biggest on this date in any season since 2000 (after the six-point gap in 2006-07).
There hasn’t been much of a relegation battle this season, and it appears as though there may not be one at all. Promoted sides Ipswich, Leicester and Southampton were huge favourites to go down before a ball was kicked, and the Opta supercomputer now makes them near certainties.
Those two teams are currently averaging 0.55 points per game between them in 2024-25, which is lower than any three relegated teams in any season in top-flight history. Yes, going back to the dawn of English football – not just in the Premier League era – the bottom three are on course to have historically poor records.
The total points gap between the teams in first and second and between 17th and 18th is currently 16 points, the third highest it has been on this date in any of the last 25 seasons. The only seasons where the total gap was bigger was the result of a particularly one-sided title race (18- and 15-point gaps) rather than both the title race and the relegation battle being all but over, like this season.
The race for Champions League football – which is likely to be awarded to the top five in this season’s Premier League – could provide some excitement. Every team in the top half could say they are still in the hunt. There is also a chance that City, Newcastle and Chelsea end up taking the three spots up for grabs (after Liverpool and Arsenal), which would mean the top five teams are precisely the five the supercomputer predicted they would be back in August.
There’s plenty of time for things to change. Ipswich or Leicester could mount a great escape, sucking Wolves or even United into a relegation battle. Liverpool could stumble and let Arsenal or even Forest back into the title race. Forest and Bournemouth could both qualify for the Champions League.
But there’s also perhaps the more realistic possibility that Liverpool canter to the title, all three promoted clubs go down, and we have less than usual to entertain us in the remaining months of the season.
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